Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1255 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A rapidly deepening surface low in eastern Maryland early this
afternoon, moving into central New York by Friday morning and
into the Maritime Provinces of Canada by Saturday. A broad
surface high builds along the Eastern Seaboard Sunday before
slowly moving into the western Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. A
cold front moves through the Mid- Atlantic region during the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The warm front associated with low pressure moving north through
the mid-Atlantic region is the dividing line between
temperatures in the upper 60s in southern Delaware and
temperatures in the mid-40s in southeast PA and central NJ.
Temperatures have been adjusted during this update to match
current and near-term expected conditions, but as always is the
case with these warm fronts moving north, the timing and
magnitude of these temperatures in any given location is very
difficult. To the north of the warm front...winds are easterly.
To the south of the warm front, winds are southerly. As the low,
and the warm front, move further north this afternoon, winds are
expected to change from easterly to southerly, then westerly
late. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out north of the
Mason-Dixon line, but the same easterly flow responsible for the
cooler temperatures north of the warm front have also prevented
destabilization of the atmosphere. SPC continues the area just
north of the Mason-Dixon line under only a marginal risk.
Periods of heavy rain are still possible, so the flood watch
continues.

     Previous discussion below...

Another round of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms from
eastern VA and MD are moving rapidly (40 to 50 MPH)toward our
area and are already affecting the Delmarva. All this activity
is expected to overspread eastern PA and NJ through the
remaining morning hours. There is still a threat for severe
weather, but the easterly flow should cap this activity...at
least for the time-being. SPS still has the Delmarva and
southern NJ under a slight risk, with an enhanced risk just to
the west. Flash flooding could be an issue as we move through
the morning hours...but the rapid movement of these storms
could help keep things from getting too bad. High temperatures
today will be hard to pinpoint because it's tricky figuring out
how far north the warm sector will advance into the CWA.

     Previous Near Term discussion below....

First showers are developing over our region this morning.
Expect this initial round of showers to become more widespread
through the early morning hours. Most of the high resolution
models depict 2 or 3 rounds of showers (possibly with some
embedded thunderstorms) through mid day as the low moves closer.
Primary concern with any of these rounds would be heavy rain
leading to poor drainage or flash flooding (see hydro section
below for more information). Then around mid day, the surface
low and associated cold front will be just to our west. As they
propagate rapidly to the northeast, another round of fast moving showers
and thunderstorms is expected. However, by this time, the
inversion may have eroded enough across Delmarva and far
southern NJ to result in surface based instability, increasing
the risk for severe thunderstorms. We may continue to have some
convection even behind the cold front as the low remains near
our region.

Hazards: In addition to the hydro hazards mentioned below, the
primary thunderstorm hazard will be damaging winds primarily
across Delmarva and far southern NJ. Winds above the surface are
expected to be near 50 kt by mid day, so it won't take much to
mix down strong winds as a linear convective system moves across
our region (by 18Z, wind profiles with nearly unidirectional
flow would suggest more linear convection rather than discrete).
There is also some risk of hail across the region, even with
thunderstorms this morning. Model soundings depict elevated
instability this morning, and with a relatively cold low level,
hail will be possible. However, at this time, would expect to
see mostly small hail, and not expecting it to be a significant
severe threat.

As far as the wind threat (outside of thunderstorms), there
remains a small window of opportunity for the stronger winds to
mix down, primarily near and along the coast. Thus, will keep
the wind advisory going for now.

A few notes about the models and sources of uncertainty: First,
Some models, including the GFS, didn't seem to initialize with
an accurate position of the mid level low. For example the GFS
depicted the 700 mb center nearly vertically stacked with the
center at 850 mb at 00Z. However, analysis of the 00Z soundings
show the center was likely further northwest. This would suggest
those model solutions may be a bit too progressive with the
track of the low.

Secondly, I am still concerned with how poorly the models have
depicted (mostly underestimated the persistence of) the marine
layer. The sea breeze reached much further west yesterday
afternoon than I was expecting. and with everyone now with
easterly winds, this may only help to enhance boundary layer
stability through the day. Most models are depicting the
inversion eroding by 18Z (across the southern half of the
region), but I am leery as to if this really will occur as
quickly as this.

Finally, there is still considerable disagreement between the
models on how far north the warm sector will reach. This could
have an impact not only on the extent of the main severe threat,
but also on high temperatures today (the MOS guidance for the
NAM and GFS have a difference of 10 degrees F for the high in
Philly today!).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Dry air advection will continue in the wake of the cold front.
Thus the chances for precipitation drop considerably overnight.
A weak trough will dig southeast along the back side of the
departing low overnight, providing some lift for additional
showers, but not expecting much. One thing of note in this
period is that across the southern Poconos, temperatures will be
cold enough to support a rain/snow mix, but not expecting any
accumulating snow at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At 12Z Friday, the system bringing us the active weather today will
be decaying as it becomes vertically stacked. The surface low
(located in central/eastern New York) will slowly progress
northeastward into far southeast Canada by 12Z Saturday. Several
perturbations in the midlevel flow will pivot around the large
cyclonic vortex in the Northeast. These vorticity maxima will induce
weak ascent, and with decent boundary-layer mixing in northwest
flow, suspect instability showers will occur, particularly northwest
of the I-95 corridor. However, think the coverage will be fairly
scattered and the precipitation amounts quite light. Thus, I lowered
the inherited PoPs Friday and Friday night to the slight chance to
chance range. Continued to include rain/snow chances in the southern
Poconos, where thermal profiles will be favorable for the white
stuff. Surface temperatures should remain warm enough so that
accumulations would be negligible. With stout cold air advection in
place, temperatures will be below seasonal averages - generally
about 5-10 degrees below climatological means. Winds are around 40
kts at 925 mb Friday afternoon, and the aforementioned mixing should
be able to transport some of this fast flow to the surface.
Increased winds/gusts during the day, and I may still be
underplaying it. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be common. A raw/blustery
spring day is on tap.

The influence of the Northeast low will wane this weekend, and a
sprawling surface high will take over the Eastern Seaboard as high-
amplitude upper-level ridging progresses to the eastern half of the
country. After a cold night Friday, a dry period with warming
temperatures is in store. Saturday highs will be near to slightly
below average, but Sunday through Tuesday will be well above
average, with potential for record highs to be approached early next
week.

The next midlevel vort max approaches the northern plains of the
U.S. by 00Z Tuesday. Operational models are in poor agreement, with
the 12Z ECMWF a southern outlier and the 00Z CMC exhibiting its
usual slow bias. Meanwhile, there are at least some indications of a
cutoff/subtropical low developing upstream of the developing western
Atlantic ridging, though model agreement here (as usual) is abysmal.

As the northern plains vort max continues east in the high-amplitude
ridging in the western Atlantic, the attendant cold front begins to
slow and decay as the dynamical support becomes displaced northeast
of the front.  The 00Z CMC aggressively diminishes the precipitation
as it moves to the East Coast, whereas the 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF depict
a wetter midweek scenario for the Mid-Atlantic region. However,
phasing differences are profound, with the GFS/ECMWF about 24 hours
off with the frontal passage in our CWA. As such, broadened mention
of PoPs from late Tuesday through Thursday, but kept them mainly
confined to the slight chance to low-end chance range.  Model
consensus places the precipitation here on Wednesday, so this is
where the highest PoPs exist at the moment, but confidence is low.

Two other items of note: Yesterday, I mentioned that this pattern
tends to develop surface lows on the stalling boundary to the south
of the vort max. Notably, the 12Z CMC develops such a low and gives
the East Coast a soaking late next week. The 00Z CMC provides subtle
hints of this as well, albeit considerably weaker. Meanwhile, the
12Z ECMWF has the midweek system picking up the aforementioned
cutoff low near/east of the Bahamas and just missing the East Coast.
Both scenarios seem low probability at this point, but are worth
keeping an eye on in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR conditions expected to continue at most TAF sites until
about 21Z at which time winds are expected to shift from
easterly to southerly, then westerly as the warm front lifts
north, along with its associated low pressure system. TAFS will
be adjusted accordingly.

Prev discussion below...

Ceilings and vsbys have deteriorated, as expected, this
morning. We expect these poor conditions to continue into the
afternoon hours until the wind shifts to a more westerly
direction.

     Prev discussion below...

Ceilings and visibility will continue to lower through the next
several hours. Expect widespread IFR conditions by 12Z. There
may be lulls in the precipitation through the morning (resulting
in temporary improvements to visibility), but for the most part,
expect IFR conditions to continue through 21Z. After that, we
should see conditions improve quickly. Expect mostly VFR
conditions overnight, though localized MVFR ceilings are
possible.

East to southeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots switching
to southwest by late in the day. Low-level wind shear through about
midday as a warm front lifts northward with very strong winds above
the ground. Winds should diminish by 00Z.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR ceilings are likely (perhaps 4000-7000 feet) with
scattered showers. Winds northwest 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35
kts possible. Gusty/erratic winds near showers. Confidence average.

Friday night and Saturday...VFR with northwest winds 10 to 20 kts
with gusts to 25 kts. Confidence above average.

Saturday night through Monday...VFR with winds around or below 10
kts. Confidence well above average.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning for most of the area, SCA for the Delaware coast
and upper Delaware Bay. Across the region, stronger winds will
be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop.

Winds should diminish slightly tonight, but may stay near 30kt
through the overnight hours. Seas are expected to remain
elevated through the period.

Outlook...

Friday and Friday night...Strong northwest winds (20+ kts) with
gusts to gale-force possible.

Saturday...Small craft advisory winds/seas expected.

Saturday night through Monday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood potential: Widespread showers develop through the morning
hours. Heavy rain is possible for 3 to 6 hours ahead of the
985-988 mb triple point low that develops east of the parent
main low. That triple point low is currently forecast to track
just west of I-95 during the day. That pattern favors southeast
flow east of I-95 with a reduction in potential rainfall in
coastal NJ there but enhancement along and west of the path of
the surface low where 1-2" of rain should fall in 6-9 hours with
isolated 3 inch possible, especially where thunderstorms occur.
That will result in spotty small stream flash flooding
depending on the axis of heaviest rain, but for now we
anticipate se PA and NNJ are the targets of greatest flood
threat.

1. Still forecasting mostly 1 to 2 inches across the watch area.
However, with the convective potential, there could be locally
much higher amounts. Details such as the location of the highest
amounts remain uncertain at this time.

2. The Passaic and Millstone Rivers are the prime large basins
of concern with the Raritan following. Note: if the Passaic
floods as anticipated, it will be the first time May 2, 2014.
For the Millstone, the first time since January 19, 2015.

3. Minor flooding along streams that empty into the Atlantic and the
DE waters may occur near high tide due to strong inflow and rainfall
runoff.

4. The potential for flooding can be broken down into three
different types. Low lying and poor drainage flooding would occur
first during the day Thursday soon after the rain begins. The runoff
will drain and potentially produce flooding midday Thursday into
Thursday night along smaller creeks and streams. Lastly, some larger
rivers and mainstems will rise and could flood Thursday night into
Friday. The river flooding could easily last into or through the
weekend, depending on the magnitude of the rainfall. So for the
southern half of the watch, the threat looks to diminish by
tonight. For east central PA and Northern NJ, the flood watch
continues through mid day tomorrow to account for residual
runoff that by 18z Friday should have a known trend to flood or
not.

5. Please refer to AHPS web page for the latest. Confidence is
higher that a number of forecast points will hit their Flood Stage.
But confidence remains lower on the severity of the flooding.

6: Antecedent conditions: since the 22nd of March, water
equivalent precipitation has been generally 1 to 2 inches above
normal. In fact, during the last week or so, amounts have been
200-400 percent of normal with only near normal temps in a
cooler less evapotranspiration time of year. Since rivers have
not had a chance to return to their base flow, its easier for
the rivers to respond to flood stage or exceed. Checking the
USGS stream flow this morning, many rivers in northern NJ and
east central PA were 75 to 95% above their historical norm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Overall, the tides this afternoon/evening without factoring
anything additional than astronomical will run slightly lower,
a half foot in spots. This will already decrease the tidal
flooding threat some when compared to the morning cycle. The low
pressure system will be departing to our north by late
afternoon which will cause winds to switch direction from
easterly to northwesterly from south to north. Based on the wind
direction change and later high tide times further south the
risk of minor tidal flooding is minimal along the Delaware
beaches. Tidal levels at high tide are likely to be about a foot
short of advisory threshold.

Further north, along the New Jersey coastline for both Cape May
and Atlantic City the risk minor tidal flooding is also
expected to be minimal with high tide up to a foot short of
advisory threshold. However, Sandy Hook is currently expected to
be near the minor tidal flooding threshold around high tide due
to the continued easterly flow lasting longer. Tides are
currently expected to stay under advisory threshold for the
afternoon/evening cycle at Sandy Hook as well.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for PAZ054-055-062.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060-061-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012-
     013-015.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ014-020>027.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016>019.
DE...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ002>004.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431-450>454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ430-455.

&&

Synopsis...CMS
Near Term...Johnson/Miketta
Short Term...Johnson/Miketta
Long Term...CMS
Aviation...CMS/Johnson/Miketta
Marine...CMS/Johnson
Hydrology...
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Gaines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

PAZ060-061-071700-
Berks-Lehigh-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-062-071700-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-
Northampton-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NJZ012-013-071700-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
northern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NJZ014-020-026-071700-
Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

The risk for flooding due to heavy rain increases today. Poor
drainage areas, including urban areas, are especially vulnerable.
Additionally, minor tidal flooding is possible with the Thursday
afternoon high tide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021>025-027-071700-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

The risk for flooding due to heavy rain increases today. Poor
drainage areas, including urban areas, are especially vulnerable.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-071700-
New Castle-Cecil-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ455-071700-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A period of gale force gusts is possible today, especially with
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ450>454-071700-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Thunderstorms could cause strong winds today, as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ431-071700-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ430-071700-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1259 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A period of gale force gusts is possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1159 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

DEZ002-003-MDZ015-019-020-061630-
Inland Sussex-Kent-Queen Anne's-Talbot-Caroline-
1159 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SUSSEX...
SOUTHWESTERN KENT...TALBOT...CENTRAL QUEEN ANNE'S AND CAROLINE
COUNTIES...

At 1158 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cambridge,
moving north at 65 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Hambleton, Windyhill and Choptank around 1205 PM EDT.
  Easton, Preston and Tanyard around 1210 PM EDT.
  Matthews and Harmony around 1215 PM EDT.
  Denton, Queen Anne, Griffin, Cordova and Skipton around 1220 PM
  EDT.
  Greensboro, Oakland, Ridgely, Jumptown, Hope and Starr around 1225
  PM EDT.
  Goldsboro and Sandtown around 1230 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hillsboro, Henderson
and Felton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3859 7606 3860 7606 3863 7608 3862 7612
      3864 7613 3864 7615 3869 7618 3916 7602
      3902 7557 3870 7582 3871 7584 3868 7594
      3863 7598 3860 7599 3857 7604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 201DEG 60KT 3857 7608

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
100 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-017-021-061800-
Inland Sussex-Kent-New Castle-Queen
Anne's-Talbot-Cecil-Kent-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Gloucester-
100 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SUSSEX...SOUTHWESTERN
NEW CASTLE...KENT...NORTHEASTERN TALBOT...EASTERN QUEEN ANNE'S...
CAROLINE...NORTHEASTERN KENT...SOUTHEASTERN CECIL...WESTERN
CUMBERLAND...CENTRAL SALEM AND SOUTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTIES...

At 1259 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Oakland to Preston to 14 miles south
of Cambridge to near Deal Island. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Federalsburg, Greensboro, Oakland, Preston, Goldsboro, Harmony and
  Sandtown around 105 PM EDT.
  Sudlersville, Agner, Smithville and Griffin around 110 PM EDT.
  Denton, Hartly and Hazlettville around 115 PM EDT.
  Andrewsville around 125 PM EDT.
  Dover, Harrington, Clayton, Cheswold, Green Spring and Dover
  Speedway around 130 PM EDT.
  Smyrna around 135 PM EDT.
  Woodside, Viola and Woodland Beach around 140 PM EDT.
  Seaford, Camden and Delmar around 145 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Barclay, Blades,
Wyoming, Kent Acres, Templeville, Highland Acres, Bethel, Kenton,
Leipsic and Chambersville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for
central, northern and southern Delaware...eastern and northeastern
Maryland...and southern New Jersey.

LAT...LON 3846 7569 3865 7571 3869 7577 3868 7580
      3871 7584 3868 7594 3928 7597 3970 7516
      3924 7519 3928 7525 3925 7541 3907 7541
      3901 7533 3891 7531 3882 7520 3846 7520
      3845 7523
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 225DEG 36KT 3904 7587 3872 7589 3836 7603 3813
7602

33