Special Marine Warning 95, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
852 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight and cross through by
Friday morning. Weak high pressure will then prevail through
Saturday. Another front and associated low pressure will be across
the area Saturday night through Monday. High pressure will then move
in next Tuesday and remain into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
     Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 10 pm trimmed back to only
Burlington, Ocean and Monmouth counties...

Our main concern is the convective complex that is moving across
central New Jersey. This complex of storms has a history of
wind damage as it moves southeast. Lapse rates are steep along
with mixed layer CAPE of 1,000 J/KG CAPE and sufficient 0-6 km
bulk shear around 30 knots. Storms will decrease in coverage and
intensity late this evening.

The sky over our region should become clear to partly cloudy. A
surface trough trailing the convective complex is expected to
pass through our forecast area late tonight.

The wind is anticipated to become light and variable overnight. Low
temperatures should be mostly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

Maximum temperatures on Friday will be similar to those of today.
However, the humidity is forecast to be slightly lower. We will
leave the Excessive Heat Warning in place for the urban corridor.
However, other areas should fall a bit short of their criteria for a
Heat Advisory.

The sky is expected to be mostly sunny on Friday. We will not
mention any precipitation due to the lack of any significant
triggering mechanism along with the continued existence of a capping
inversion aloft.

The wind should favor the west and southwest on Friday around 5 to
10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The heat wave will continue on into the weekend, but it will gradually
weaken with temperatures more in line with normal after Monday. A
few recent model runs are showing than high temperatures around 90
degrees readings  are possible Monday, something which has
changed since yesterday, but for now we will continue with upper
80s across the Philadelphia metro area and for Delmarva too.
Dew point temperatures will be lower over the area Saturday, but
then climb back to steamy values Sunday and early Monday. A
front will cross the area Monday and drier and cooler air will
arrive behind that for the middle of next week.

Shower and tstm chances will be rather low Friday night and into
Saturday morning, but then increase from w to e through the afternoon
as the the front and humid air return to the area. High chance
to low likely pops will be over the area Sunday into Monday as
the system passes the region. Lower pops will be over the area
Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure settling over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period with one
notable exception.

Any sub-VFR conditions and thunderstorms in TAFS to be removed
shortly. Thunderstorms ending and weakening.

Also, patchy visibility restrictions are possible during the late
night and early morning hours especially in areas where rain falls
this evening.

We are not anticipating any showers or thunderstorms on Friday.

A light southwest wind this evening is expected to become light and
variable tonight. A light northwest wind is anticipated for Friday
morning, then it should become west and southwest as the day
progresses.

OUTLOOK...
Fri night thru Saturday morning...VFR expected.
Saturday afternoon thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Sct showers and
tstms with lower conditions possible. Tue...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to influence the
coastal waters of Delaware and New Jersey for tonight. A weak
frontal boundary from the northwest is forecast to arrive early on
Friday. The wind should favor the south and southwest at less than
15 knots tonight, becoming west to southwest on Friday. Wave heights
on our ocean waters will remain around 2 to 4 feet and waves on
Delaware Bay should be 1 to 2 feet. Thunderstorms on the
coastal waters from ACY northward may result in gusty winds for
a few hours this evening.

OUTLOOK...
Sub-SCA conditions overall. The main hazard will be sct tstms
mainly between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Locally higher
winds and seas with tstms. Bring your NOAA weather radio along
to get alerts.

RIP CURRENTS...

The underlying 10 to 14 second southeasterly swell is forecast to
persist into Friday. As a result, we will continue the moderate risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents through that time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KDOV dew point readings are unrepresentative of the area
and should not be used when diagnosing humidity/heat indices and
meteorological analysis of meteorological items which use
dewpoint in a calculation.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...Gaines/Iovino/O'Hara
Marine...Iovino/O'Hara
Equipment...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-220045-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware and northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices will be between 100 and 105 degrees on Friday.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001-NJZ017-PAZ070-102-220045-
New Castle-Gloucester-Delaware-Eastern Chester-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, southern
New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ071-104-106-220045-
Mercer-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Philadelphia-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, southern
New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ001-007-008-016-021>023-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-220045-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Salem-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, southern
New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible later tonight for the
Lehigh Valley region and across Northern New Jersey.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices will be between 95 and 100 degrees on Friday.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ009-010-012-013-020-027-PAZ103-105-220045-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible later tonight for the
Lehigh Valley region and across Northern New Jersey.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices will be between 95 and 100 degrees on Friday.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ014-026-220045-
Eastern Monmouth-Coastal Ocean-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-220045-
Delaware Beaches-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-220045-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
843 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The Storm Predication Center has indicated that there is a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
731 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

NJZ008>010-012-210000-
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
731 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTH CENTRAL
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 730 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Califon, or 12
miles northwest of Somerville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm...and may cause
ponding on roadways and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Occasional cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. If you see
lightning or hear thunder seek a safe shelter inside a building or
vehicle.

Locations impacted include...
Somerville, Bridgewater, Middlesex, Bound Brook, Mount Arlington,
Mendham, Peapack And Gladstone, Chester, Califon, Far Hills,
Succasunna, Succasunna-Kenvil, Long Valley, Martinsville, Millington,
Basking Ridge, Budd Lake, North Plainfield, Bernardsville and
Watchung.

LAT...LON 4063 7442 4061 7445 4060 7445 4055 7457
      4074 7490 4093 7464 4071 7441 4068 7445
      4066 7445 4066 7441 4065 7440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 312DEG 30KT 4072 7475

Robertson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
756 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

NJZ008-010-012>014-210045-
Morris-Eastern Monmouth-Western Monmouth-Somerset-Middlesex-
756 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MORRIS...CENTRAL
SOMERSET...NORTHEASTERN MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 755 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bound Brook, or
near Somerville, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can
strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside
a building or vehicle.

Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Long Branch, Somerville, Somerset,
Edison, Middletown, Old Bridge, East Brunswick, Bridgewater,
Sayreville, North Brunswick, Marlboro, Carteret, Tinton Falls,
Holmdel, Middlesex, Red Bank, Bound Brook and Manville.

LAT...LON 4033 7397 4018 7412 4054 7475 4075 7453
      4071 7442 4067 7446 4065 7440 4060 7446
      4059 7420 4055 7425 4050 7426 4050 7428
      4046 7426 4044 7420 4046 7418 4045 7413
      4041 7403 4044 7400 4048 7402 4047 7400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 312DEG 34KT 4057 7455

Robertson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
830 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE ALBRIGHTSVILLE    41.04N  75.59W
07/20/2017                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0632 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARRYVILLE              40.82N  75.67W
07/20/2017                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PHILLIPSBURG            40.69N  75.19W
07/20/2017                   WARREN             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOCKING ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STOCKTON                40.41N  74.98W
07/20/2017                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1701052 PHI1701053 PHI1701054 PHI1701055

TA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
840 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

NJZ012>014-019-020-026-027-PAZ071-106-210115-
Northwestern Burlington-Eastern Monmouth-Coastal Ocean-Ocean-Western
Monmouth-Middlesex-Southeastern Burlington-Lower Bucks-Philadelphia-
840 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OCEAN...NORTHERN
BURLINGTON...MONMOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS
AND NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

At 839 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Matawan to near Woodruff to Burlington.
Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds up to 45 mph are possible with this storm. The strongest winds
may occur with a gust front ahead of any rainfall.

Occasional lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can
strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside
a building or vehicle.

Locations impacted include...
Toms River, Long Branch, Asbury Park, Lakewood, Middletown, Old
Bridge, Bensalem, Jackson, Howell, Marlboro, Manalapan, Tinton Falls,
Holmdel, Red Bank, Florence, Beachwood, Burlington, Bristol, Mount
Holly and Matawan.

LAT...LON 4007 7404 4005 7409 4005 7405 4001 7408
      3980 7409 4001 7409 3999 7414 3999 7411
      3995 7411 3994 7415 3992 7411 3980 7417
      3980 7455 4013 7502 4012 7459 4046 7425
      4044 7420 4045 7414 4038 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 306DEG 31KT 4040 7421 4008 7452 4009 7486

Robertson