Special Marine Warning 37, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

200 
FZUS71 KPHI 080124
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

ANZ430-431-453>455-473-475-080215-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170508T0215Z/
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM...
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE...
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE...
WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 TO 40 NM...
WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET NJ TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 TO 40 NM...

AT 924 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
FOURTEEN FOOT BANK LIGHT TO 13 NM SOUTH OF FIVE FATHOMS BUOY TO NEAR
DELAWARE LIGHTSHIP BUOY 44009...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND 
         SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FIVE FATHOMS BUOY...BUOY 2FB...BROWN SHOAL LIGHT...BUOY 4FB...
BUOY 3FB...FOURTEEN FOOT BANK LIGHT...DEEPWATER REEF...
CAPE MAY POINT...MIAH MAULL LIGHT...BRANDYWINE SHOAL LIGHT...
WILDWOOD...OVERFALLS SHOAL...28-MILE WRECK...CAPE MAY REEF...
DELAWARE LIGHTSHIP BUOY 44009...BUOY 2MS AND WILDWOOD REEF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SAFE SHELTER...MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING
WAVES.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 7485 3858 7464 3894 7531 3911 7542
      3919 7543 3918 7538 3913 7484 3913 7485
      3910 7489 3898 7494 3897 7491 3912 7476
      3893 7380 3870 7415 3859 7418 3851 7426
      3822 7431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 282DEG 33KT 3905 7516 3856 7453 3837 7474 

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

JRK

934 
FZUS71 KPHI 080150
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

ANZ430-455-080158-
/O.CAN.KPHI.MA.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170508T0215Z/
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE AFFECTED AREAS WERE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM...
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE...
 UPPER DELAWARE BAY...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM...

THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND NO LONGER POSE A 
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO BOATERS.

LAT...LON 3835 7470 3843 7471 3855 7441 3873 7450
      3895 7505 3909 7513 3916 7509 3913 7485
      3898 7494 3897 7491 3899 7490 3912 7476
      3893 7380 3870 7415 3859 7418 3851 7426
      3822 7431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 275DEG 30KT 3905 7493 3851 7425 3830 7453 

$$

ANZ431-453-454-473-475-080215-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170508T0215Z/
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM...
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE...
WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 TO 40 NM...
WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET NJ TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 TO 40 NM...

AT 948 PM EDT...A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS 
EXTENDED FROM 6 NM NORTHWEST OF WILDWOOD TO 21 NM EAST OF DELAWARE 
LIGHTSHIP BUOY 44009 TO NEAR CHICKEN BONE...MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND 
         SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
28-MILE WRECK...FIVE FATHOMS BUOY...BUOY 2FB...BUOY 4FB...BUOY 3FB...
CAPE MAY REEF...DEEPWATER REEF...CAPE MAY POINT...
WILDWOOD REEF AND WILDWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SAFE SHELTER...MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING 
WAVES. ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 7470 3843 7471 3855 7441 3873 7450
      3895 7505 3909 7513 3916 7509 3913 7485
      3898 7494 3897 7491 3899 7490 3912 7476
      3893 7380 3870 7415 3859 7418 3851 7426
      3822 7431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 275DEG 30KT 3905 7493 3851 7425 3830 7453 

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

JRK

988 
FZUS71 KPHI 080208
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1008 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

ANZ431-454-080218-
/O.CAN.KPHI.MA.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170508T0215Z/
1008 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE AFFECTED AREAS WERE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM...
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE...
 LOWER DELAWARE BAY...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM...

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND NO LONGER 
POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO BOATERS.

LAT...LON 3832 7460 3853 7425 3880 7440 3897 7490
      3906 7482 3910 7489 3913 7489 3913 7485
      3908 7481 3912 7475 3893 7380 3870 7415
      3861 7417 3850 7426 3822 7431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 276DEG 28KT 3904 7477 3850 7409 3829 7437 

$$

ANZ453-473-475-080215-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170508T0215Z/
1008 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 TO 40 NM...
WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET NJ TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 TO 40 NM...

AT 1008 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WILDWOOD TO 28 NM SOUTHEAST OF FIVE FATHOMS BUOY
TO NEAR CHICKEN BONE...MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND 
         SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
28-MILE WRECK...BUOY 2FB...BUOY 3FB...CAPE MAY REEF...
DEEPWATER REEF...WILDWOOD REEF AND WILDWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR UNTIL HAZARDOUS WEATHER PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3832 7460 3853 7425 3880 7440 3897 7490
      3906 7482 3910 7489 3913 7489 3913 7485
      3908 7481 3912 7475 3893 7380 3870 7415
      3861 7417 3850 7426 3822 7431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 276DEG 28KT 3904 7477 3850 7409 3829 7437 

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

JRK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
708 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The low pressure system will meander over eastern Canada through mid
week. It will eventually deepen over the northwestern Atlantic ocean
waters through the end of the work week. Another low pressure system
will propagate northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 pm update: Only changes to the grids with this update were
modifications to sky cover and winds based on latest
observations and some near-term extrapolation. Did also make
some minor adjustments to temps/dews based on latest input from
high-resolution models, but these changes were quite minimal
overall.

Main concern this evening is the evolution of the showers
across the area. High-resolution models have done a nice job
with the precipitation today, even from simulations initiated
last evening. There are two main culprits to the showers today.
The first is a departing upper low near New York/western New
England and the second is a pivoting shear axis and embedded
vort max in Maryland/Virginia. Showers are primarily confined
north of the Mason-Dixon Line with the former and near/west of
Chesapeake Bay with the latter. However, as the MD/VA vort max
progresses east tonight, showers are expected to increase for a
few hours in the Delmarva Peninsula. Thus, inherited higher PoPs
in this area make sense and have left alone.

Convection-allowing models keep some showers in New Jersey most
of the evening, so PoPs may need to be raised a bit here after
00Z, but will monitor radar trends the next couple of hours
before making changes.

Main concern for tonight is the potential freeze in the Poconos.
The case looks marginal (i.e., plus or minus a degree or two
from freezing), but with expected clearing late, decreasing
winds, and an overall positive temperature bias with model
guidance in these areas in such regimes, the freeze warning
looks good for now.

Previous discussion...

The closed mid/upper low will pinwheel across New England overnight
tonight, while surface low pressure redevelops across the same area.
The broad mid/upper trough will remain in place across the east
coast as well. Showers will continue into this evening due to the
cold pool aloft, but will diminish later this evening as any low
level lift dissipates. With the cold pool aloft and low freezing
levels, there was actually some ice pellets or graupel reported this
afternoon. This will be very isolated and only showers are expected.

Overnight lows tonight will remain well below normal across the
area, but no one is expected to approach or reach records at this
point. However, temperatures across the Poconos of Carbon and
Monroe, Pennsylvania may drop down to around freezing or just below.
Therefore we've issued a Freeze Warning for those areas overnight
and toward daybreak Monday. Other areas across eastern Pennsylvania
and northwestern New Jersey may get low enough where frost would
typically form. However, there is currently enough winds overnight
through daybreak that would likely prevent frost from forming. But
it still will be chilly Monday morning. One place where winds may
drop off enough for frost to form is portions of the Pine Barrens in
of Burlington and Ocean, New Jersey so we've included patchy frost
in the forecast but have not issued a frost advisory since winds
there may prevent widespread frost formation as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Seems like we're repeating ourselves for Monday's forecast as the
mid/upper low remains nearly stationary across New England and
surface low pressure drifts northward into southeastern Canada. The
main difference with Monday's forecast is that drier air is forecast
to move in across the area, and shower activity will be more
limited. The best chance for any isolated showers will be across
northeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey during the
afternoon Monday.

Otherwise, another cool day is expected Monday with temperatures
below normal once again. Winds will again gust at times 20-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through the week and across the country a stagnant if not
retrograding mid and upper level pattern is expected. This will keep
our region in a cool northwesterly flow pattern.

Monday night...this still looks to be the coldest night of the week.
We should have light winds and dry air through the night. The only
factor which may limit radiational cooling is a scattered to broken
mid level cloud deck. However, even with this, we should see the
most clearing in the dawn hours, so we could see prime radiational
cooling conditions in the climatologically coldest hours. Thus,
despite some mid level clouds, have included a mention of patchy
frost across the southern Poconos, NW NJ, the Lehigh Valley, and
Upper Bucks and Montgomery Counties. In these areas, expect lows
between 32 and 36 degrees. If models trend lower with cloud cover, a
mention of frost may also need to be added to Berks County PA and
the Pine Barrens of NJ. At this time we are not forecasting any
record lows (see climate section below).

Tuesday and  Wednesday... Have removed mention of precip through
this period as the models continued the trend started yesterday with
a drier pattern (through much of this period, we will be in between
the closed low off the coast of New England, and the developing low
over central Canada.

Thursday and Friday...The surface low which is expected to develop
and propagate east, moving off the Mid Atlantic coast by the weekend
and its associated warm front is expected to stay south of the
region as almost all models trended further south with the track
today. Thus, expect continued cool conditions for our region.
Trended PoPs down through this period, but still keep a mention of
showers as there remains poor run to run consistency on the track of
this low and uncertainty with how quickly the next upper level low
will develop and dig south.

Saturday and Sunday...cyclogensis is depicted by almost all the
models through this period. A mid and upper level shortwave trough
digging on the back side of the low off the New England coast is
expected to deepen, intensify, and close as the surface low (now off
shore) intensifies and deepens. The ECMWF shows this occuring right
over the Mid Atlantic Coast, resulting in coastal storm impacts for
our region (windy conditions, widespread precipitation). The GFS and
CMC, however, depict the cyclogenesis occuring either much further
off shore or much further northeast, resulting in little impact for
our region. Given the uncertainty, have stayed close to the previous
forecast and a blend of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

For the 00Z TAFs...VFR through the period. CIGs from 5-10 kft
this evening with scattered showers, especially near/south of
KPHL. CIGs should begin to rise and scatter out after midnight.
Diminishing winds favoring a W or NW direction this evening will
become light/variable after midnight. Tomorrow, W to NW winds
increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. A BKN deck around 10
kft is anticipated by late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions expected.

Thursday and Friday...conditions may lower to MVFR with increasing
chances of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
630 pm update: Small craft advisory expired at 6 pm for Delaware
Bay. However, seas remain elevated over the Atlantic waters, and
the advisory remains in effect here through midnight.

May see some gusts 20-30 kts at times this evening in proximity
to any passing showers, but these conditions should be
brief/isolated.

Previous discussion...

The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place for the Delaware Bay
and Atlantic coastal waters, and the end times will remain the same.
The winds on the Delaware Bay are expected to diminish over the next
couple of hours as shower activity diminishes, so the Bay will
remain ending at 6 pm. The ocean will continue through 2 am as seas
remain around 5 feet, and winds could increase again to near 25
knots through this evening, before diminishing overnight.

It is possible that winds along the far southern New Jersey waters
and Delaware Bay may increase again toward daybreak for a couple of
hours into Monday morning, but confidence in this was not high
enough to extend the advisory in time. We will monitor this evening
and overnight in case we need to extend the advisory or issue a
Marine Weather Statement toward daybreak.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Winds and seas are expected to stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With drier air moving in on Monday, RH values are expected to lower
to near or just below 30 percent across the area during the
afternoon. Winds will likely gust around 20-25 mph at times as well.
However, with the green up having occurred, recent rainfall, and
cloudy conditions the last couple of days, fuels are pretty moist
across the area. The once exception could be the heart of the Pine
Barrens across Burlington and Ocean, New Jersey where the green up
has lagged. No enhanced fire weather statements are planned for
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here is a list of the record low temperatures for Tuesday, May 9:

ABE: 31/1956*
ACY: 32/1981
GED: 30/1956
ILG: 32/1947
MPO: 26/1976
PHL: 33/1947
RDG: 34/1976*
TTN: 34/1947

* - Also in other years.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...CMS/Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...CMS/Johnson
Marine...CMS/Johnson/Robertson
Fire Weather...Robertson
Climate...MPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

PAZ054-055-082000-
Carbon-Monroe-
348 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

Freezing conditions are again likely late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. There is a chance for frost again late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ001-007-009-PAZ061-062-103-105-082000-
Sussex-Warren-Hunterdon-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
348 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Patchy frost is likely late Monday night into early Tuesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008-010-012>027-PAZ060-070-071-
101-102-104-106-082000-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
348 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-082000-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
348 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.