Special Marine Warning 119, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
423 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The low pressure system will slide off shore later today and
eventually lift northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure in the
upper Mississippi Valley will settle over the mid Atlantic on
Wednesday. A slow moving cold front is expected to traverse our
region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon.

Low pressure over Delmarva early this morning will move to the
northeast today. The low will deepen as it moves offshore. and pick
up speed as it moves to the northeast on Saturday. Strong, gusty
winds will develop through this morning with the gustiest winds
expected along the coast.

We should start to see conditions improve by this afternoon as high
pressure starts to build in from the west. With a strong north to
northeast flow, temperatures will remain cooler across the region,
staying in the low to mid 70s across the region.

Heavy rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are moving through
southern Delaware and southern New Jersey early this morning. These
showers will continue to move to the northeast and offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The showers will gradually taper off over the southern portions of
the forecast area through tonight. Otherwise a relatively dry night
can be expected across the region. Dewpoints drop to a more
comfortable level, mainly into the 50s, and low temperatures will
range from the low 50s across the north to the mid 60s along the
coast. It should be a rather pleasant, albeit unseasonably cool,
night for late July.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Sunday and Monday...in the wake of the low pressure system, a
weak surface ridge is expected to build in over the region. As a
result, expect dry conditions both days. Trimmed back the
mention of fog each night as models now depict mostly
northwesterly flow starting late Sunday night. So, baring any
standing water (which is still possible), do not expect much fog
development.

Tuesday and Wednesday...ridge weakens as a weak surface trough
moves in. The pressure gradient is small, and flow in the mid
and upper levels is very weak. Still there may be enough
convergence along the trough axis combined with orographic lift
to support afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day to the
north and west of the fall line. The trough also results in
southerly return flow redeveloping. This will result in
moisture and warm air advection through mid week.

Thursday through Friday...Quite a bit of uncertainty as to when
the next cold front will arrive. It could be as early as
Thursday night, or more likely Friday or Friday night. At this
point, stayed close to the previous forecast with mostly slight
chance and chance PoPs through out this period until we have a
better idea of the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Varying conditions at the terminals as an areas of showers and
thunderstorms moves through the region.

Conditions have been mainly VFR overnight with MVFR/IFR conditions
occurring in heavy rain showers and isolated convection. A period of
low clouds is expected to follow the rain with MVFR conditions
possible through the morning. Expect conditions to gradually improve
as the heavy rain showers move offshore. MVFR conditions may
continue into the early afternoon, especially at KACY and KMIV.

Conditions look like they may start to improve to VFR this afternoon
at the terminals with late afternoon/early evening at KMIV/KACY.

East to northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots will gust up to 25
knots through this evening. Winds will lose some of their gustiness
this evening but will remain around 10 to 15 knots through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions are expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions are expected. There is
a slight chance (20%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for
KRDG and KABE each day which could lower conditions to MVFR briefly
if they move directly over the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the ocean waters of New jersey
and Delaware through 2AM Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the Delaware bay through late tonight.

Northeast winds will increase on the area waters this morning as the
pressure gradient tightens due to a low pressure system moving
through the region. Gale force gusts around 35 to 40 knots will
develop through the late morning and will continue through the
afternoon and into tonight on the ocean. Winds on the Delaware Bay
will be a little bit lower, gusting up to 30 knots. Near the mouth
of the lower Delaware Bay, a few gale force gusts are possible later
today but confidence is low and will not put up a Gale Warning on
the bay. Seas on the ocean are around 2 to 3 feet early this morning
but will build through the day today becoming 7 to 10 feet tonight.

Once the gale force gusts have subsided, a conversion to a Small
Craft Advisory will be need for the ocean waters.

Locally higher gusts will occur in heavy showers and convection.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...SCA conditions for both seas and winds
will continue through most of this period on the Atlantic Coastal
Waters. On the Delaware Bay, conditions should be mostly below SCA
criteria.

Monday through Wednesday...once seas drop below 5 feet on the
coastal waters either late Sunday night or early Monday morning,
winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through the rest of
the period.

Rip Currents...
A high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
expected today for the DE and NJ beaches, due to a strong onshore
northeast flow and waves in the surf zone up to 7 FT.

Looking ahead, a persistent onshore flow and elevated seas offshore
may lead to a continued high risk of rip currents into Sunday and at
least a moderate risk of rip currents into Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A persistent onshore northeast flow will continue through at
least Saturday night. Meanwhile, astronomical tides are
decreasing during this time frame, with the afternoon/evening
astronomical high tides being the highest. Tides are currently
up to 1 ft above the astronomical MLLW at most of our
oceanfront, Delaware Bay, and Delaware River gauges.

Based on the latest trends and all available guidance, we do
not anticipate minor tidal flooding. The only exception along
the oceanfront may be the high tide tonight if rainfall is
substantial enough to add to the storm tide (astronomical +
surge) and on the Delaware Bay and River if the northeast
flow/rainfall runoff leads to a greater storm tide for the
Saturday night and Sunday evening high tides. While these are
low probabilities, they will be watched closely.

In terms of high surf and beach erosion potential, seas are
expected to build in our coastal waters in the 6-8 FT range per
WNA guidance. This is typically underdone with northeast gales,
so seas may be 1-2 feet higher. With a northeast flow, >=80 pct
of these seas will translate onshore in terms of breakers. So
there is the potential for 8 FT breakers, which would warrant a
High Surf Advisory. Also, seas have trended down every so
slightly since the last forecast package. Therefore, we will
hold off on a high surf advisory for Saturday with this forecast
package. Nevertheless, at least minor beach erosion is likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily rainfall records for today at our climate sites are
listed below...

 7/29
ACY 2.21 (1884)

PHL 3.53 (1980)

ILG 1.85 (1913)

ABE 1.64 (1979)

TTN 2.84 (1961)

GED 1.07 (1969)

RDG 2.51 (1961)

MPO 4.59 (1969)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ070-071-
     101-102-104.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NJZ014-024>026.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ016>027.
DE...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for DEZ004.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ431.

&&

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Climate...

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