Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

507 
WHUS71 KPHI 010225
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017


ANZ451-011530-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
925 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS.

* WINDS...LIGHT VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 KT BY DAWN
  WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-011200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170201T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
925 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...DELAWARE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

* WINDS...LIGHT VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 KT BY DAWN
  WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED THURSDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-011530-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0012.170201T0400Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
925 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS.

* WINDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BECOMING WEST 15 TO 25 KT AROUND OR
  SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE
  MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED THURSDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452-453-011530-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
925 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS.

* WINDS...LIGHT WIND BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 KT AROUND DAWN WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED THURSDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

416 
WHUS71 KPHI 010846
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

ANZ454-455-011400-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170201T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
346 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS 
MORNING...

* LOCATION...THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL 
VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-012200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
346 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS 
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS TODAY.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL 
VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-012200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
346 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS TODAY.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL 
VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452-453-011800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
346 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
  EARLY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL 
VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

IOVINO

530 
WHUS71 KPHI 011435
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

ANZ450-012300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
935 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-012300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
935 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452-453-011800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
935 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

576 
WHUS71 KPHI 011803
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

ANZ452-453-011915-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
103 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...


$$

ANZ450-012300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
103 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-012300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
103 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR 
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

852 
WHUS71 KPHI 012052
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

ANZ450-012200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
352 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

ANZ451-012200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170201T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
352 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will consolidate south of Long Island into tonight,
then track to the south and east of Cape Cod overnight. A cold front
is forecast to cross our area later Wednesday. High pressure builds
into the Ohio Valley during Thursday, then across our area late
Friday and Saturday before shifting offshore. Low pressure may then
track across our area later Sunday into early Monday, with high
pressure following for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A clipper system continues to move through the northern Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast states this afternoon. The primary surface low to our
northwest (over western NY) is weakening as a secondary low develops
off the NJ coast (near the system's triple point).  The coastal low
will move quickly to the east-northeast toward Nantucket this
evening, then hook northward into the Gulf of Maine overnight. A
weak cold front with this system will likely dissipate before it
ever makes it to our region.

The position of the warm front was just to the south and east of I-
95/NJ Turnpike at 3 PM this afternoon and clearly evident from
surface observations. In the warm sector south of the front,
temperatures are in the mid/upper 40- (even a few 50s in Delmarva)
with a breezy SW winds. Observations situated to the north of the
boundary range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s (even teens at KMPO)
with a light E or NE wind.

PoPs were lowered in earlier updates today for this afternoon as the
organized synoptic lift from this system has already shifted
downstream of the area. In wake of the steadier snow locations in E
PA and C/N NJ saw this morning, scattered showers have developed
along and east of the Delaware Valley this afternoon. Forcing for
this activity looks to be provided by weak low-level convergence
near the warm front in addition to DPVA ahead of a shortwave trough
in the low-/mid-levels. HRRR soundings also indicate weak elevated
instability rooted above the warm nose at 850 mb. Snow grains, ice
pellets, and rain have been reported with this activity. Once these
showers move off the coast by sunset, there should be little in the
way of precip tonight. However, kept in low chances for snow showers
N/W of the Fall Line for this evening (HRRR has been consistent in
showing isolated showers developing toward RDG-ABE-MPO early this
evening) and slight chance PoPs for the southern Poconos overnight.

Forecast temperatures N and W of I-95 were a bit tricky for tonight
as they won't follow a typical diurnal curve . Low temperatures in
these locations will likely occur this evening before the warm front
moves through. A SW wind in wake of the fropa will be accompanied by
a rise in temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Yet another clipper system embedded in an active northern jet stream
will pass through the Great Lakes region and Northeast states on
Wednesday. The forcing from this system looks to be mainly confined
to the north of our CWA. However, a cold front approaching from the
NW may be accompanied by isolated to perhaps scattered showers
develop across eastern PA and NW NJ during the afternoon. Similar to
what we saw yesterday, forecast soundings indicate steep lapse rates
and marginal instability (50-100 J/kg of MUCAPE), which is enough to
fuel the convective activity. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will
be warmer than yesterday thought, so the potential for localized
snowfall accumulation would be confined to the higher elevations in
NE PA and NW NJ.

Highs range from the mid 30s in the Poconos to mid/upper 40s along
and E of I-95. A few locations in mid Delmarva and SE NJ has a
decent shot at reaching 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Synoptic Setup...A closed low centered near Hudson Bay Wednesday
night and Thursday will maintain a trough into the Northeast. This
looks to shift around a bit through Friday with the southern extent
of the trough potentially relaxing and allowing the flow to turn
more zonal. A cold front moves through late Wednesday, then ridging
in the interior West allows for strong high pressure in the Midwest
to expand east-southeastward into the weekend. This should allow a
colder northwesterly flow to occur, with the center of the surface
high forecast to move over our area later Saturday. The evolution of
the flow aloft over the weekend and early next week is less certain,
as there is quite the variability in the model/ensemble guidance.
There may end up being to much energy in the West, which allows more
zonal flow to even ridging in the East. We used a model blend for
Wednesday night through Friday, then blended in the 12z WPC Guidance
thereafter. Some adjustments were then made following additional
collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Wednesday night and Thursday...An expansive upper level trough
centered near Hudson Bay will maintain the southern portion of the
trough across the Northeast and into the Mid Atlantic. A cold front
will shift east of our area to start Wednesday night with perhaps a
few snow showers mainly across the far north early. There is plenty
of channelized vorticity forecast to be moving through the flow
across our northern areas, and this may keep the cloud cover in
place for some areas longer. Surface high pressure will build
southeastward from the Northern Plains Thursday with increasing
northwesterly flow across our region. This combined with cooling may
allow for some lake effect snow showers to reach down to the Pocono
region. Otherwise, this time frame is anticipated to be dry.

For Friday and Saturday...A more pronounced short wave looks to dive
southeastward from the Great Lakes later Friday. This is reflected
at the surface by a trough which should cross our area later Friday,
with additional cold air advection in its wake. There does not
appear to be much in the way of forcing or additional moisture to
produce precipitation, other than perhaps some flurries or snow
showers nearing the Poconos with any possible lake effect
connection. High pressure is forecast to slowly build into the Mid
Atlantic during Saturday, however a tight pressure gradient coupled
with cold air advection may lead to a blustery Friday. The winds
then subside later Saturday as the center of high pressure arrives.

For Sunday through Tuesday...The flow may end up turning mostly
zonal during much of this time frame as significant energy moves
across the Western states. There however is quite a bit of
uncertainty with the overall flow regime as a stronger short wave
traversing the southern stream could lead to trough amplification in
the East at some point. Looks like much of the guidance has backed
away from this possibility, with now a weak system moving through
later Sunday. It appears that there may be so much energy out West
that the downstream flow remains zonal to even some ridging. We will
keep just some low chance Pops in for later Sunday and Sunday night
given the uncertainty with the details as the larger scale features
need to be resolved. As of now, low pressure and an associated cold
front moves through later Sunday, then high pressure builds in later
Monday into Tuesday. It is possible that early next week could offer
a significant warm up if a strong trough develops well to our west,
which would result in plenty of southerly flow and warm air
advection overspreading the East (at least for a time).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF period. Ceilings
around 5,000 feet will be in place through the afternoon before
breaking up tonight. A few sprinkles and flurries or very light
precipitation showers will be scattered around this afternoon as
well, so a VFR mention of this is in the 18Z TAFS. Winds this
afternoon will be the main concern, they are more southeasterly than
what our data has been projecting today. This TAF update slows the
transition with the winds going from the southeast to southwest this
afternoon. Wind gusts could approach 20 knots in a few spots as well
over the next few hours, any gusts will decrease tonight.

Quiet tonight with westerly winds of 10 knots or less. Wind
gusts should pick up Wednesday afternoon with gusts around 20
knots. Ceilings will also thicken and lower to around 3,500 feet
in the afternoon Wednesday with spotty brief VFR rain showers
possible at all TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR overall. West-northwest winds
less than 10 knots Wednesday night, then increasing to near 15 knots
Thursday with gusts up to 25 knots (diminishing Thursday night).

Friday and Saturday...VFR as high pressure gradually arrives.
Northwesterly winds near 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
Friday, then diminishing some Friday night into Saturday.

Sunday...Low confidence regarding details as a storm system may move
through. Therefore, MVFR or lower conditions could develop
especially later in the day and at night with some possible
rain/snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Some changes were made to the SCA headlines. First, the SCA was
canceled for the DE Bay. After a breezy morning, winds in the Bay
have dropped off to below 20 kt. Next, the SCA for our northern most
zone (ANZ450) was pushed back until 11 PM this evening. Winds north
of a warm front are very light, which has kept seas in the 2-3 ft
range. Expect SCA conditions to begin overnight in the coastal
waters of C NJ.

Winds will turn more W-SW tonight and decrease from S to N in our
coastal waters. Expect winds to fall below 25 kt off S NJ and DE
early tonight but seas will still be elevated around 5 ft through
Wednesday morning. Winds look to pick up in our far northern zones
as a coastal low deepens over the Gulf of Maine. Gusts 25-30 kt are
likely to develop overnight tonight into Wednesday morning in our
northern waters (ANZ450/451).

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night...The conditions are expected to be below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

Thursday through Saturday...Periods of Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected, especially Thursday and then again Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning.

Sunday...While there is uncertainty with a possible storm system
arriving, the conditions are currently anticipated to be below
advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ452-453.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ454-455.

&&

Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Gaines/Gorse
Marine...Gorse/Klein

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-011115-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
614 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW. THERE IS HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...
SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-103-105-011115-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
614 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW. THERE IS HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...
SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-
106-011115-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
614 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW. THERE IS HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...
SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-011115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
614 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     SNOW             WANTAGE                 41.24N  74.55W
01/31/2017  M1.3 INCH        SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700177

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1157 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     SNOW             KIDDER TWP              41.06N  75.69W
01/31/2017  E2.0 INCH        CARBON             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700178

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     SNOW             WANTAGE                 41.24N  74.55W
01/31/2017  M1.8 INCH        SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700177

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 PM     SNOW             HIGHLAND LAKES          41.18N  74.47W
01/31/2017  M1.5 INCH        SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700179

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     SNOW             CHADDS FORD             39.87N  75.59W
01/30/2017  E1.0 INCH        DELAWARE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1155 AM     SNOW             KIDDER TWP              41.06N  75.69W
01/31/2017  E2.0 INCH        CARBON             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1208 PM     SNOW             WANTAGE                 41.24N  74.55W
01/31/2017  M1.8 INCH        SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

1231 PM     SNOW             HIGHLAND LAKES          41.18N  74.47W
01/31/2017  M1.5 INCH        SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

1253 PM     SNOW             BARTONSVILLE            41.01N  75.28W
01/31/2017  E1.3 INCH        MONROE             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700176 PHI1700178 PHI1700177 PHI1700179 PHI1700180

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     SNOW             CHADDS FORD             39.87N  75.59W
01/30/2017  E1.0 INCH        DELAWARE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1155 AM     SNOW             KIDDER TWP              41.06N  75.69W
01/31/2017  E2.0 INCH        CARBON             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1231 PM     SNOW             HIGHLAND LAKES          41.18N  74.47W
01/31/2017  M1.5 INCH        SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

1253 PM     SNOW             BARTONSVILLE            41.01N  75.28W
01/31/2017  E1.3 INCH        MONROE             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

0114 PM     SNOW             LINCOLN PARK            40.92N  74.30W
01/31/2017  E1.0 INCH        MORRIS             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

0234 PM     SNOW             PARSIPPANY              40.86N  74.43W
01/31/2017  M1.5 INCH        MORRIS             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     SNOW             WANTAGE                 41.24N  74.55W
01/31/2017  M2.2 INCH        SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700176 PHI1700178 PHI1700179 PHI1700180 PHI1700181
PHI1700182 PHI1700177

SFJ