Freeze Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

847 
WWUS71 KPHI 091915
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
215 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

...Widespread Freeze Expected Friday Night...

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-021>025-PAZ070-071-
101000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0001.171111T0000Z-171111T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0004.171111T0000Z-171111T1500Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Delaware-Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, 
Rehoboth Beach, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Millville, Hammonton,
Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Media, 
and Philadelphia
215 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Freeze
Warning, which is in effect from 7 PM Friday to 10 AM EST
Saturday. The Freeze Watch is no longer in effect.

* TEMPERATURES...Dropping to between 15 and 25 degrees.

* TIMING...The lowest temperatures should occur near daybreak
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Crops and other sensitive outdoor plants will likely
  be killed. Take steps to protect remaining tender plants from 
  freeze conditions. This will likely bring an end to the growing 
  season.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

Gorse

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the area this morning will move offshore by
tonight. A strong cold front will cross the area overnight. High
pressure with cold air will follow for Friday and into the weekend.
Low pressure and a cold front tracks near our area late Sunday
night into Monday, then high pressure arrives for Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy fog across the Lehigh Valley and into the Poconos may locally
reduce VSBY down to under 1SM through daybreak or so.

For the rest of southeast PA, central and southern NJ, and the
Delmarva, overcast skies as a stratus deck at 2500-4000 feet
continues this morning.

Weak low pressure will move through the Mid-Atlantic and track
offshore later today. Meanwhile, a cold front slowly approaches from
the west. Some shortwave energy out ahead of that front will pass
through the Appalachians this afternoon. This may touch off some
afternoon showers across most of the region, but with a relatively
dry atmosphere in place, not much QPF is expected.

Highs today will around normal, generally topping off in the 40s in
the Poconos and northern NJ, and in the low to mid 50s for most of
southeast PA and NJ, and approaching 60 in the Delmarva.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Cold front passes through the region this evening, but it will not
be until after midnight tonight for cold air advection to be fully
underway. Northwest winds increase to 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30
MPH towards daybreak Friday.

Lows tonight drop into the teens across the Poconos, otherwise in
the 20s to near 30 north and west of the Fall Line, and in the low
to mid 30s across southern NJ and the Delmarva.

The lowest wind chills will range from 5 to 10 above across the
Poconos.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few days of cold temperatures but fair weather for the beginning
of the long term. The cold front that crosses the area Friday night
will be east of the area and a cold gusty N/NW winds will be
across the area. Temperatures will only reach the low 40s S/E
and stay in the upper 20s/low 30s across the far north. Wind
chill values will be some 10 degrees less than the air
temperatures. The weather will be fair both Friday and Saturday
with a decent amount of sun. Temps will moderate a few degrees
Saturday, but the reduced wind speeds will make it feel better.

Clouds will increase over the area Sunday and the next low and its
associated fronts approach from the west. We had chance pops in the
fcst for Sunday on yesterdays fcst, but it now appears the the
system is slowing a bit, so todays fcst for Sunday will be dry.
Temperatures will be back closer to normal, but sill a few degrees
below. Pops increase overnight and remain mostly in the chc category
for Monday and Monday night. There is a chance for some snow across
the higher elevations of the srn Poconos on Sunday night, but
accumulations are not expected attm.

Most of the models seem to offer fair weather for Tue/Wed of
next week. Confidence in these periods is not that great
however. We will continue with a dry fcst for bots days attm.
High temperatures will mostly be in the low/mid 50s, so just a
few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Some patchy fog through daybreak at KABE/KRDG with IFR
VSBYs. Otherwise, CIGs will vary from around 2500 ft to around 3500
ft. Light east wind on tap, generally less than 5 KT, but up to 6-8
KT at KMIV/KACY.

Tonight...CIGs lift to VFR. Cold front passes through the region
late tonight. LGT/VRB winds become NW 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25
KT towards daybreak Friday.

OUTLOOK...
Friday thru Sunday...VFR. Gusty N to NW winds Friday.
Sunday night and Monday...Restrictions psbl. Chance for rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...NE winds 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 kt on the Atlantic
coastal waters. However, seas will range from 6-8 ft, but will
subside to 3-4 ft on the northern NJ Atlantic coastal waters. Small
Craft Advisory remains up for central and southern NJ coastal waters
and DE coastal waters today, but ends for the northern NJ coastal
waters this afternoon. Relatively tranquil conditions expected on DE
Bay.

Tonight...Cold front passes through the waters. NW winds increase to
15-25 KT with gusts up to 35 KT on the Atlantic coastal waters well
after midnight and towards daybreak Friday. Will hoist a Gale
Warning for Atlantic coastal waters tonight to avoid having double
headlines, but gale force winds not expected until after 08Z or so.
For DE Bay, SCA conditions will develop behind the passage of the
cold front.

OUTLOOK...
Friday...Gale conditions with fair weather.
Friday night thru Sat morning...SCA expected. Fair.
Sat afternoon thru Sunday...Sub-SCA. Fair.
Sunday night thru Monday...Sub-SCA. Chance of rain.
Monday night...Winds and seas building. SCA on ocean psbl.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Looks like the departures will be less than the past few days.
While levels may reach the low end of minor flooding levels. It
doesn't appear that they will reach the level needed for an
advisory. TWL fcsts will be issued around 4:30 A.M.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures for Saturday morning for several of our
sites are forecast to be challenged. The extent of the cold
however will depend on how quick the winds diminish Friday night
as high pressure builds in.

The daily record low temperatures for 11/11 are listed below
for all of our climate sites.

Site     Daily Record Low      Year Set
         Temp for 11/11 (F)
ACY      22                    1973
PHL      21                    1961
ILG      22                    1961
ABE      19                    1954 and 1956
TTN      25                    1973 and 1987
GED      21                    1973
RDG      18                    1973
MPO      11                    1956

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     PAZ070-071.
NJ...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     NJZ016>018-021>025.
DE...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     DEZ001>004.
MD...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ452>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ450-
     451.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...MPS/O'Hara
Marine...MPS/O'Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...PO
Climate...Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-019-020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-
092045-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
344 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-021>025-PAZ070-071-
092045-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Delaware-Philadelphia-
344 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, southern New
Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Freezing conditions Friday night and early Saturday morning will end
the growing season.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-092045-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
344 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Northwesterly gales to 35 knots are possible Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.