Coastal Flood Advisory 25, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
942 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rapidly intensifying low pressure will move across our area
overnight and then to our north through Monday morning. One
cold front passes through the region Monday afternoon, followed
by a stronger cold front Monday night. Cold high pressure works
its way across the region Tuesday through Wednesday, then moves
offshore on Wednesday. A warm front develops and passes through
the region behind the departing high Wednesday night. A cold
front will slowly work its way across the area for the end of
the week, followed by high pressure for at least part of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A 01z surface analysis placed a 983 mb low pressure center just
off the coast of Ocean County New Jersey. The water vapor imagery
shows an impressive mid level trough in the Mid-Atlantic region
taking on a negative tilt. This along with a strong jet stream
aloft is resulting in strong upper-level divergence across the
region. Therefore, a large area of rain some of which is heavy
continues to move across the area. The pivot point however
continues to quickly move northward across Delmarva.

Plenty of rain falling across the region as tropical moisture gets
entrained into the system, and reports so far indicate 1 to 4 inches
has fallen. While the rainfall rates are increased at times,
any flooding may be more of the longer duration as opposed to
the flash flooding type. We will however continue the flash
flood watch as is given some additional moderate to heavy rain.

As the deep surface low tracks north-northwestward through the
overnight, sharp pressure rises along with developing cold air
advection in its wake will combine with increased mixing. This
will result in a rapid increase in the west-northwest winds
overnight and therefore a wind advisory is continued for gusts
up to 50 mph occurring mainly toward daybreak. The strongest
winds should occur first across the southern regions of our
area.

The hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids were adjusted based
on the latest observations, then some of the LAMP guidance was
blended in for a time to assist. The Pops were adjusted a bit as an
eventual dry slot should overspread at least the southern and
eastern areas overnight allowing for a more showery pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The very deep low pressure system will be north of the area
Monday morning. Strong west to northwest winds will be gusty (up
to 50 mph) during the morning, before a slow decrease in the
winds during the afternoon. A drier and colder airmass will be
sweeping across the area too. Lingering showers across the nrn
half of the area before 8 a.m. will quickly come to an end by
noon (at the latest). Clouds will decrease from S to N too, with
mostly sunny skies in most areas by afternoon. Temperatures
will reach highs mostly in the mid/upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winds continue to diminish to less than 10 mph Monday evening.
A secondary cold front will pass through the region Monday
night, and then cold high pressure will build into the region
from the west. Frost is possible for some of the areas that are
still in their growing season in NJ and PA, as lows Monday night
will drop into the low to mid 30s for the Poconos and northern
NJ, and in the upper 30s to low 40s for the rest of southern NJ
and southeast PA. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s for the
Delmarva. Dry on Tuesday with highs generally in the 50s, and
then a colder night is on tap for Tuesday night, with lows in
the upper 20s for the Poconos, and in the low to mid 30s for
most of NJ and southeast PA. The urban corridor from Trenton to
Wilmington will be several degrees warmer, generally in the
upper 30s to low 40s, and lows will be in the mid to upper 30s
in the Delmarva. Depending on how radiational cooling develops,
it is possible for temperatures to be even colder than this, and
possible for the growing season to end in several more areas.

The caveat to the low temperature forecast Tuesday night is
that high pressure will pass through the region, and mid and
high clouds associated with a developing warm from to the west
will begin to spread east sometime Tuesday night. This will have
a major impact on the low temperature forecast, as if those
clouds arrive earlier than currently anticipated, lows would end
up being several degrees warmer than currently forecast. If
later, then temperatures will be colder.

With the approach of that warm front on Wednesday, some showers
are possible for western zones late in the day, but it looks as
if any showers will hold off until Wednesday night. Model QPF
fields are light, so not expecting much rainfall.

Cold front moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
in the week, and may begin to approach the western Appalachians
by Thursday. Some showers are possible with its passage, but
model QPF fields remain light as the bulk of the upper level
energy will pass north of the region based on latest model
guidance.

High pressure returns for the start of the weekend, and then
another frontal system may impact the area late in the weekend.

After highs generally in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, return
flow sets up to being unseasonable warmth to the region again
for the end of the work week with highs in the 60s and possibly
into the low 70s. More seasonal temperatures expected for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...Ceilings vary from IFR to VFR, however a period of
prevailing MVFR/IFR ceilings is expected at most terminals.
Rain heavy at times will continue to track northward across the
region resulting in significant visibility restrictions at
times, however it will taper off to some showers from south to
north overnight for most terminals. KRDG and KABE should
continue with rain through the night. Winds shift from the
north and west-northwest and increase with gusts of 30-40 knots
mainly toward morning.

Monday...VFR conditions return in the morning as clouds clear from
south to north and showers end. West-northwest winds around 20 knots
with gusts to around 40 knots through the morning, then gradually
diminish during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Monday night through Wednesday: VFR, winds generally around or
under 10 knots.

Wednesday night through Friday: Sub-VFR conditions in scattered
showers. Winds still expected to be near or under 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning remains in effect through Monday as an intense
storm moves across our area tonight then to our north through
Monday. Strong easterly winds across the northern waters will
ease for a time, then increasing west-northwest winds everywhere
occurs overnight and especially early Monday morning as strong
pressure rises occur along with some cold advection and deeper
mixing. We continue with the idea that gusts stay below storm
force later tonight and early Monday morning. Rain tapers off
overnight from south to north.

Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday...SCA conditions expected on at
least the ocean waters due to gusty westerly flow and lingering
high season.

Tuesday night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Monday for PAZ054-055-061-062.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to noon EDT Monday for PAZ106.
     Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ070-071-
     104>106.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>105.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Monday for NJZ001-007-008.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to noon EDT Monday for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>015-019-020-026-027.
     Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ009-010-
     012>027.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for NJZ016>018-
     021>025.
DE...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for DEZ001>004.
MD...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...O'Hara
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...Gorse/MPS
Marine...Gorse/MPS/O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-PAZ060-101>103-302200-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Berks-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, east central
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ054-055-061-062-302200-
Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Pennsylvania and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ001-007-008-302200-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ016>018-021>025-PAZ070-071-104-105-302200-
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern New Jersey and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ009-010-012>015-019-020-026-027-PAZ106-302200-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Mercer-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Lower Bucks-
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ450>455-302200-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-302200-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT HOLLY WFO         40.01N  74.82W
10/29/2017  M2.43 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   NWS OFFICE

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTH BEACH HAVEN       39.60N  74.21W
10/29/2017  M2.60 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WARETOWN                39.79N  74.19W
10/29/2017  M4.50 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

0925 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STOCKLEY                38.64N  75.34W
10/29/2017  M2.64 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

0926 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HARBESON                38.72N  75.28W
10/29/2017  M2.75 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

0926 PM     HEAVY RAIN       REHOBOTH BEACH          38.72N  75.08W
10/29/2017  M2.73 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

0927 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BETHANY BEACH           38.54N  75.07W
10/29/2017  M2.65 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

0928 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BERKELEY TWP            39.93N  74.27W
10/29/2017  M4.25 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   NJWXNET

0928 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOLMDEL                 40.35N  74.18W
10/29/2017  M4.15 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   NJWXNET

0929 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOWELL TWP              40.19N  74.20W
10/29/2017  M4.13 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   NJWXNET

0929 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TOMS RIVER              39.95N  74.20W
10/29/2017  M3.84 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   NJWXNET

0929 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PARSIPPANY              40.86N  74.43W
10/29/2017  M3.54 INCH       MORRIS             NJ   NJWXNET

0930 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WALL TWP                40.17N  74.08W
10/29/2017  M3.46 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   NJWXNET

0930 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HARVEY CEDARS           39.70N  74.14W
10/29/2017  M3.42 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   NJWXNET

0931 PM     HEAVY RAIN       POINT PLEASANT          40.08N  74.07W
10/29/2017  M3.32 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   NJWXNET

0931 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOORESTOWN              39.97N  74.94W
10/29/2017  M2.93 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   NJWXNET

0933 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ATLANTIC CITY           39.38N  74.45W
10/29/2017  M2.78 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   NJWXNET

0933 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SEA GIRT                40.13N  74.03W
10/29/2017  M2.78 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   NJWXNET

0934 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SEASIDE HEIGHTS         39.94N  74.08W
10/29/2017  M2.77 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   NJWXNET

0935 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OCEANPORT               40.31N  74.02W
10/29/2017  M2.74 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   NJWXNET

0935 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RED LION                39.89N  74.74W
10/29/2017  M2.55 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   NJWXNET

0936 PM     HEAVY RAIN       VINELAND                39.46N  75.00W
10/29/2017  M2.53 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   NJWXNET

0938 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKEWOOD                40.10N  74.22W
10/29/2017  M4.01 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   MESONET

0938 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JACKSON TWP             40.12N  74.35W
10/29/2017  M3.43 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   MESONET

0939 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MORRIS PLAINS           40.84N  74.48W
10/29/2017  M3.08 INCH       MORRIS             NJ   MESONET

0939 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHATSWORTH              39.82N  74.53W
10/29/2017  M3.01 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   MESONET

0940 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OCEANVILLE              39.47N  74.46W
10/29/2017  M2.95 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   MESONET

0940 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST WHARTON            40.91N  74.60W
10/29/2017  M2.80 INCH       MORRIS             NJ   MESONET

0941 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANASQUAN               40.11N  74.04W
10/29/2017  M2.71 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   MESONET

0941 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MEDFORD                 39.90N  74.82W
10/29/2017  M2.65 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   MESONET

0942 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BARNEGAT LIGHT          39.76N  74.10W
10/29/2017  M2.65 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   MESONET

0943 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NESHANIC                40.50N  74.72W
10/29/2017  M2.64 INCH       SOMERSET           NJ   MESONET

0943 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OLD BRIDGE              40.41N  74.37W
10/29/2017  M2.56 INCH       MIDDLESEX          NJ   MESONET

0944 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FOLSOM                  39.59N  74.85W
10/29/2017  M2.54 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   MESONET

0944 PM     HEAVY RAIN       POMPTON PLAINS          40.97N  74.30W
10/29/2017  M2.53 INCH       MORRIS             NJ   MESONET

0945 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EWINGVILLE              40.28N  74.78W
10/29/2017  M2.52 INCH       MERCER             NJ   MESONET

0948 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SOUTH JERSEY AIRPORT    39.94N  74.84W
10/29/2017  M2.86 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   ASOS

0949 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT    39.93N  74.30W
10/29/2017  M2.86 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   ASOS

0949 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MONMOUTH EXEC AIRPORT   40.19N  74.12W
10/29/2017  M3.54 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1701693 PHI1701694 PHI1701695 PHI1701696 PHI1701697
PHI1701698 PHI1701699 PHI1701700 PHI1701701 PHI1701702 PHI1701703
PHI1701704 PHI1701705 PHI1701706 PHI1701707 PHI1701708 PHI1701709
PHI1701710 PHI1701711 PHI1701712 PHI1701713 PHI1701714 PHI1701715
PHI1701716 PHI1701717 PHI1701718 PHI1701719 PHI1701720 PHI1701721
PHI1701722 PHI1701723 PHI1701724 PHI1701725 PHI1701726 PHI1701727
PHI1701728 PHI1701729 PHI1701730 PHI1701731

IOVINO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 PM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLOOD            OCEAN CITY              39.27N  74.60W
10/29/2017                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE BAY FRONT
            INCLUDING HAVEN AVE. TRAVEL WAS RESTRICTED TO HIGH
            CLEARANCE VEHICLES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1701732

JRK

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