Areal Flood Advisory 224, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1221 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into our region late tonight and slowly
exit off the Delmarva coast Wednesday afternoon. Canadian high
pressure builds into the region on Thursday and should continue
to be the primary influence on our weather into early next week.
Two low pressure systems should be near the Gulf coast states
this weekend and eventually turn northeast early next week,
possibly affecting our weather around Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The severe weather threat continued to diminish around 12:15
AM. However, locally heavy rainfall is expected along the
Interstate 95 corridor and in parts of southern New Jersey for
another couple hours.

The cold front extended diagonally across Pennsylvania from
southwest to northeast shortly after midnight. The boundary is
expected to reach the Interstate 95 corridor around daybreak.

Low temperatures are anticipated to be in the middle and upper
60s in the Poconos and far northern New Jersey and in the lower
and middle 70s elsewhere in our forecast area.

The wind should favor the southwest and west overnight becoming
northwest around daybreak with the arrival of a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Any ongoing showers and thunderstorms near the coast will
slowly move eastward towards the waters through the afternoon as
the cold front continues its surge eastward. Humidity should
fall to more comfortable levels later in the day, more so by
evening as a secondary front pushes through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 MB: a -2SD trough begins the long term period in the Great
Lakes region, then weakens slightly as it moves into the
northeast Friday- Monday. Thereafter, we will monitor the
northeastward progress of what should be a split flow low of
tropical origins, having moved ashore along the Gulf Coast by
early next week.

Temperatures: Calendar day averages Thursday...near or slightly
below normal, then 2 to 6 degrees below normal daily Friday-
Tuesday.

Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of 12z/22 GFS/NAM MOS was used
Wednesday night-Thursday night, then the 12z/22 GFS MEXMOS was
applied Friday and thereafter the 15z/22 WPC D4-8 gridded
elements of max/min T, 12 hr POP 6 hrly dew/wind/sky.

Wednesday night...Fair and more seasonable with light wind and
possible patchy countryside fog.

Thursday...Scattered light showers possible late Thursday in e
PA with considerable afternoon cloudiness.

Friday-Monday...High pressure shifts southeastward into the
Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday,then eastward into
southeastern Canada/Northeast U.S. Sunday and Monday. This
expansive high will control our regional weather pattern across
the Mid Atlantic during this time. The trough aloft could result
in a shower north of I-78 Friday afternoon and there should be
considerable cloudiness at that time. Otherwise, for now, good
weather is predicted.

Tuesday...WAA overrunning clouds, if not rain, from a potential
tropical remnant moving northeastward from the Gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across our
region through 0600Z with lingering showers anticipated late
tonight into perhaps Wednesday morning.

Conditions will vary between VFR and MVFR overnight with
localized IFR in precipitation. Clearing and VFR conditions
are expected for Wednesday.

A southwest wind around 8 to 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots
is expected to become west at 5 to 10 knots overnight, then
northwest at 5 to 10 knots for Wednesday.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR except possible mvfr or ifr fog patches
toward dawn Thursday with nearly calm wind.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR. Generally light winds from the N
or NW, possibly becoming N-NE on Saturday and Sunday. small
chance of a light shower vicinity KABE/KTTN/KRDG Thursday
afternoon and Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Strengthening southerly flow has allowed seas to build around 4
to 6 feet across the ocean waters and 2 to 4 feet across the
Delaware Bay. Gusts will gradually diminish overnight. Seas
will gradually subside into Wednesday as a cold front moves
through the area and the pressure gradient begins to subside.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight
into Wednesday. These storms may locally reduce visibility.

Outlook...
Wednesday night through Saturday...Winds and seas below SCA
criteria.

Sunday...For no SCA headline but chance that northeast flow
will increase and cause hazardous seas to develop along the S NJ
and DE coasts Sunday (5 feet).

RIP CURRENTS...
Wednesday... Low risk, possibly bordering moderate based on
what develops this evening for residual effects carrying into
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Atlantic City and Allentown were within 2F of record today.
Around 91F for a max T.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...99
Long Term...Drag
Aviation...Drag/Iovino
Marine...Drag/99
Climate...Drag

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SW PHILADELPHIA         39.95N  75.16W
08/22/2017                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOME TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
            PHILADELPHIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1701541

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
125 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PORT READING            40.56N  74.25W
08/23/2017  M1.79 INCH       MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1701542

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
210 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 AM     FLOOD            LOCUSTWOOD              39.92N  75.03W
08/23/2017                   CAMDEN             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY 70 EASTBOUND CLOSED AT HADDONFIELD ROAD
            IN CHERRY HILL TWP DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1701543

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     FLOOD            WESTVILLE               39.87N  75.13W
08/23/2017                   GLOUCESTER         NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY 45 JUST SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 130 CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1701544

CMS