Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a
trough of low pressure. Low chances for rain return Saturday
before becoming more widespread with a Sunday cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Coverage of thunderstorms will increase this afternoon with the
approach and passage of an upper level shortwave. Modest
instability of 2000 j/kg and weak shear should support a few
strong to severe storms, especially over western PA where low
level lapse rates are steep/ higher DCAPE, and with support
from the wave itself. This is in line with SPCs marginal risk,
with the main threat being wind. In addition to any severe
concerns, heavy rain is possible as PWAT values approach 1.8
inches although storm movement is a bit faster than it has been
the last couple of days. Some of the hi res model guidance also
suggests an area of convergence in northwest PA may support
higher QPF values, and thus, some localized flooding concerns
this evening. However, since flash flood guidance is relatively
high in the area in question, have opted to not issue an flash
flood watch at this time. Outside of this area, will need to
watch any storms that go over southwest PA/Allegheny county and
those locales that had problems the last two days.

Showers and storms will continue through tonight with the
passage of the shortwave. Lingering cloud cover and little in
the way of cold advection will keep low temps elevated again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging should lead to a mainly dry Friday, though some
showers may linger in the terrain through midday. A weak
crossing shortwave Saturday should return slight to low chances
for showers/storms, though the best upper support is progged to
remain north of the area.

Digging upper trough and the passage of a cold front is expected
to bring the best chance for widespread precipitation and a
slight cool down to the region through the start of the new work
week. Overall trends with the front are good enough to have
categorical PoPs. Temperatures will remain above averages until
the fronts passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers/thunderstorms should continue Sunday night through
early Monday as the front completes its passage. The upper
trough is progged to persist across the NE CONUS through mid
week, though surface ridging should result in mainly dry weather
later Mon/Tue. Another shortwave rotating through the trough
should return rain chances to the area by mid week. Temperatures
are expected to return to near seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon then again late
this evening with a passing shortwave.

Expect fog to develop overnight...especially at locations where
precipitation was observed.

.Outlook...
Occasional restrictions are expected through the weekend with
some morning fog and afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
308 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-160715-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
308 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall could also result in localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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