Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

295 
WGUS71 KPBZ 240035
FFSPBZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
835 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

OHC019-067-157-240330-
/O.CON.KPBZ.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170724T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison OH-Carroll OH-Tuscarawas OH-
835 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL AND TUSCARAWAS
COUNTIES...

At 833 PM EDT, local law enforcement reported flooding near New 
Philadelphia. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen in that 
area. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly or is occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
New Philadelphia, Dover, Uhrichsville, Carrollton, Dennison,
Sugarcreek, Gnadenhutten, Tuscarawas, Baltic, Midvale, Bowerston and
Barnhill.

This includes  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 70 and 87.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 8171 4044 8168 4046 8167 4058 8166
      4057 8109 4032 8110 4035 8162 4037 8162
      4037 8171

$$

tax

785 
WGUS71 KPBZ 240332
FFSPBZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1132 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

OHC019-067-157-240342-
/O.EXP.KPBZ.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170724T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison OH-Carroll OH-Tuscarawas OH-
1132 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN
CARROLL AND TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4044 8171 4044 8168 4046 8167 4058 8166
      4057 8109 4032 8110 4035 8162 4037 8162
      4037 8171

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
605 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very humid conditions over
the region through Monday with a continued threat for showers
and thunderstorms. Dry conditions are expected through early
Thursday before a cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Ascent via the right entrance region of an upper level jet is
working with a couple of convergent low level regions to allow
for convective development this evening. One of these is sagging
southeastward from NW Ohio, and a second one is developing in
what was actually a far less conducive area from central Ohio to
northern WV. The second area is of particular importance this
evening as a mesolow has shown its hand in eastern OH and adding
additional impetus for ascent and convective development. It now
seems quite likely that convection will overspread the southern
half of the area over the next few hours, generally in line with
the HRRR projections. Due to the trajectory of the storms, it
would seem flooding may be a greater threat than severe weather
at this time, and this will be monitored going forward.

The strongest instability is still present over the northern
reaches of the CWA, however satellite imagery indicates cumulus
is really having difficulty getting going in our area even as it
develops readily farther north. Additionally, convective blow
off has overspread the area, minimizing late afternoon heating,
and thus lessening instability a touch. That said, some
additional development does seem likely here, and likely PoPs
were maintained for later this evening.

The activity over NW Ohio should also make its way southeastward
toward our area, however given previous activity over the area,
it will again just be a rainfall threat. That said, likely PoPs
were maintained through the post-midnight hours.

Behind the final line of convection, some nominal clearing seems
possible overnight given a fall off in layer RH values. Should
that occur, fog development will be almost a foregone
conclusion. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will
be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break
occurs.

Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface
high will build into the Great Lakes. This will finally bring a
stretch of dry weather and sunshine for Tues/Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deep upper trough and associated surface cold front will
settle south from Ontario on Thursday, bringing the threat for
showers/storms during the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Friday into the weekend gets a bit muddy. If the
aforementioned wave progresses into the Southeast, then the
weekend is shaping up to be spectacular with dry conditions and
highs around 80. Some model solutions open the upper wave up
across the Appalachians keeping the threat for clouds and
precipitation (especially over the eastern ridges) into Friday
and perhaps Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cigs will continue to improve through the remainder of the
afternoon, with VFR expected to prevail, outside of any
thunderstorm. Morning cloud cover may have limited instability
initially but with clouds beginning to scatter out, coverage
should increase, as is progged by the hi res model guidance
this evening. Will keep the VCTS mention through tonight as the
upper level shortwave digs across the great lakes.
Deterioration back to MVFR and possibly IFR is expected, with
the late showers/storms with some improvement by early Monday as
the frontal boundary finally starts to sag southward across the
forecast area, some additional thunderstorm activity is
anticipated this evening. Kept VCTS in there with the

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing
thereafter.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
415 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-240815-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
415 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main threat will be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.