Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Paducah, KY

940 
WWUS53 KPAH 262047
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
347 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

ILC191-262100-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-170426T2100Z/
Wayne IL-
347 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY...

At 347 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Xenia to Cisne, moving northeast at 50mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Cisne and Johnsonville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8842 3847 8870 3861 8870 3861 8866
      3860 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 238DEG 40KT 3859 8864 3851 8847 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

551 
WWUS53 KPAH 262056
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
356 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

ILC191-262106-
/O.EXP.KPAH.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-170426T2100Z/
Wayne IL-
356 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning was moving out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire at 400 PM CDT.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
south central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3845 8842 3847 8870 3861 8870 3861 8866
      3860 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 214DEG 39KT 3859 8841 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
251 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Fairly high confidence in the short term.

A cold front was perched just northwest of the region. It extended
from Wisconsin to near St Louis and Springfield MO into Texas. By
00z this front should be nearing the confluence of the Mississippi
and Ohio rivers. The front should exit the area by 12z Thursday.
Strong and some severe storms were developing well ahead of the
front over SEMO this morning and spreading into southwest Illinois
this afternoon. These storms were fairly isolated but producing
some winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail. As the front
approaches later this afternoon and evening would expect to see
more widespread convection with severe and heavy rain possible.
After midnight start to end the thunder chances from west to east
as we lose our CAPE. Expect a lull for Thursday. A warm front will
lift into the area Friday bringing rain chances back to the
region. We will cool down a good deal Thursday and then rebound
right back above normal Friday as the warm makes its way through.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Confidence remains high on an unsettled upcoming weekend with both
heavy rain and severe potential. Less confidence in the exact timing
and location of where the heaviest rain and best severe threat will
be.

An upper level trough will pivot into the southern Plains on
Saturday as ridging takes shape over the southeast U.S. On Sunday
the trough will eject northeast into our region, moving into the
Great Lakes on Monday. Deep southwesterly flow will remain in place
this weekend, with ample moisture present for heavy rains.

On Saturday, a warm front will lift north of the region resulting in
precip chances decreasing from the south. Most of the area may end
up dry by the afternoon and evening hours as our area becomes fully
engulfed in the warm sector. Our northern and western counties may
not see as long of a break in the rain and storms. By Saturday
night, the upper level trough is nudging close enough to increase
PoPs from the west as the better lift and upper dynamics move
closer. Highest PoPs will push across the area through the day on
Sunday. At this time, it looks the back edge will push east through
the evening and much of the area may end up dry by after midnight.

As far as severe potential on Sunday, it will be dictated by just
how much instability is present and the exact timing of the front
through the area. Models hint there will at least be modest
instability along with strong forcing and deep layer shear.
Currently, the cold front looks to advance east through the area
during the afternoon into the early evening hrs, which would be near
prime time for enhanced storm activity. Will continue to monitor
this closely. Guidance continues to indicate several inches of QPF
Saturday night into Sunday, refer to the latest Hydrologic Outlook
for details. Holding off on issuing any sort of Flood Watch at this
time.

The trough lifts north on Monday, leaving the Quad State dry for
Monday and at least the first part of Tuesday. A shortwave looks to
push into the area sometime later Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs
returning possibly by Tuesday afternoon and increasing into
Wednesday.

Temperatures will be warmest on Saturday, into the 80s in many
locations, before cooling down below normal in the 60s on Monday. A
warming trend then commences with most areas back above 70 on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Low level moisture continues to spread low VFR cigs northeast thru
the area, with some MVFR cigs even noted in portions of southeast
MO. A line of storms over southeast MO will continue lifting off
to the northeast while gradually moving east. Strong to severe
storms will remain possible through the afternoon and evening hrs,
especially over southeast MO and southwest IL. Storms will also
bring strong gusty winds in addition to reduced ceilings and
visibilities to MVFR or perhaps IFR levels. South winds will
average 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 25 knots ahead of
the front. Behind the front, winds will shift to the
west/southwest as ceilings look to remain in the MVFR to low end
VFR range through the overnight and much of the morning hrs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...SP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
438 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
438 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The development of isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois through early this
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to form
along and ahead of a cold front over southeast Missouri by mid to
late afternoon. Initially, storms will be capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

A line of thunderstorms should progress into southern Illinois
and far western Kentucky by early evening. Damaging winds will be
the primary concern.

The severe threat will diminish quickly as the storms move east
towards the Wabash River and the Land Between the Lakes by late
evening. Lightning and locally heavy rain will also accompany
thunderstorm activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Friday through
Sunday. Heavy rainfall is expected over portions of the region.
Please refer to the Hydrologic Outlook for details.

In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through
the period. At this time, the best chance of severe storms appears
to be with a warm frontal passage Friday night, in addition to the
cold frontal passage Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed by mid to late afternoon
in southeast Missouri, and throughout southern Illinois and the
Purchase Area of western Kentucky by early evening.

Spotters are also encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts for
possible activation over the upcoming weekend.

RJP/GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     DU QUOIN                38.00N 89.24W
04/26/2017  M50 MPH          PERRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORRENTIAL RAIN REPORTED WITH THE STORM.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW MOUNT VERNON      38.28N 88.93W
04/26/2017  M70 MPH          JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             3 SSW MOUNT VERNON      38.28N 88.93W
04/26/2017  M0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
317 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SESSER                  38.09N 89.05W
04/26/2017                   FRANKLIN           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OVERTURNED SEMI AND TRAILER ALONG HIGHWAY 154 AND CENTRAL
            ROAD. FIRE RESCUE RESPONDING.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MOUNT VERNON            38.32N 88.91W
04/26/2017  M60 MPH          JEFFERSON          IL   PUBLIC

            WALL CLOUD WITH ROTATION AND THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL
            REPORTED WITH STORM.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT VERNON            38.32N 88.91W
04/26/2017  E60.00 MPH       JEFFERSON          IL   PUBLIC

            WALL CLOUD WITH ROTATION REPORTED WITH STORM.

&&

SMITTY