Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Not alot of discussion time available this morning, first severe
thunderstorm warning issued a few minutes ago. Elevated
thunderstorms, capable of producing hail, was anticipated the last
couple days for parts of Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois
for the 09z-12z (3 am-6am CST) time period this morning. Both the
high resolution CAM (Convection Allowing Models) and the larger
grid spaced model guidance (12km NAM-WRF, 20km GFS, as well as
the ECMWF and CMCnh) are initializing the convection 40-80 nm too
far to the west-southwest. Made adjustments to the grids to
reflect the more progressive movement of the shower and
thunderstorm activity.

The cloud forecast will be problematic today and may impact
convective initiation later on this afternoon. I would not be
surprised to see a reduction of measurable PoPs for update for
later this morning into early afternoon.

Big question remains for this evening and overnight as to the
timing and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. At this
point, considering the enhanced risk, decided to increase emphasis
to damaging wind for tonight with the mention of severe storms.

Given the speed of this system, cleared out the precipitation a
little faster than the medium range guidance. Limited any mention
of severe thunderstorms to the 6am to 9am CST Wednesday for West
Kentucky. Also transitioned from damaging winds to heavy rain
during the same time period.

Dry and near seasonable temperatures should continue following the
frontal passage into Thursday.

Will try to provide a more detailed timing and description of
threats in the weather story and a local mesoscale discussion
during the next couple of hours...right now the focus is on
handling current warnings for Southeast Missouri and Southwest
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Average confidence in the long term due to so- so model
agreement, especially Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry through Sunday. Late Saturday night into Sunday the
Canadian wants to crank out small pops over parts of the CWA but it
is the outlier model for sure. During that time frame we will be on
the back side of the aforementioned high pressure with increasing
moisture through the lower troposphere, which is probably what the
Canadian is latching onto. However, with no apparent kicker during
that period have opted to go with the majority and keep those
periods dry.

Precipitation chances begin to increase from the west Sunday night
into Monday with the approach of a cold front out of the plains.
Models not in good agreement on available instability ahead of the
approaching cold front so will not mention thunder in those
periods at this time.

Temperatures Friday and Friday night will be within a few degrees of
normal, then quickly warm to well above normal through the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Convection has arrived and will be with us for most of the
overnight period. This activity will move out during the morning
hours, 12Z-15Z Tuesday. Cigs will likely become MVFR later on in
the night. Winds have been increasing and will stay up the rest of
the night and could be gusty at times. Low level wind shear will
be a possibility until more substantial gusts set in later
Tuesday. After this warm air advection activity moves east Tuesday
morning, we will have a lull, before the next batch of convection
develops between 00Z-06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
336 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
336 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms moving northeast between 50 and 60 mph
early this morning will produce marginal to damaging hail through
daybreak over parts of Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois,
West Kentucky, and Southwest Indiana. Secondary hazards will be
frequent lightning and locally heavy rain. An isolated strong wind
gust over 40 mph cannot be ruled out.

There will likely be a lull in the strong to severe thunderstorms
late this morning and into the early afternoon. There may be
multiple regions of storm development, leading to more than one
opportunity for severe weather through tonight. The first time
period will be late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, then
again overnight, as a cold front moves across the area.

All severe weather modes will be possible, including large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes. If certain parameters come together,
we cannot rule out a strong tornado or two from southeast
Missouri, into southern Illinois and far west Kentucky. Storm
motion should be east northeast around 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A lingering chance of strong to severe storms is possible early
Wednesday morning across West Kentucky and part of Southwest
Indiana. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the primary
hazards.

Otherwise, no severe weather is expected for the remainder of the
outlook period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will likely be needed tonight and early
Wednesday morning.

Smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     HAIL             3 ENE LITHIUM           37.85N 89.83W
02/28/2017  M1.75 INCH       PERRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR HIGHWAY 51 NORTH AND HIGHWAY NORTHEAST OF LITHIUM.

&&

K. SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     HAIL             PINCKNEYVILLE           38.08N 89.38W
02/28/2017  E0.50 INCH       PERRY              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

K. SMITH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
312 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

ILZ075-080-281000-
Perry IL-Jefferson IL-
312 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...

At 308 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tamaroa, or 8 miles northeast of Pinckneyville, moving northeast at
60 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Bluford, Tamaroa, Waltonville, Bonnie and Nason.

LAT...LON 3847 8870 3828 8871 3807 8927 3814 8932
      3821 8919 3821 8915 3824 8915 3848 8874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0908Z 237DEG 51KT 3814 8926

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
320 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

INZ088-KYZ019-280945-
Spencer IN-Daviess KY-
320 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SPENCER AND CENTRAL
DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CST...

At 320 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Owensboro, moving east at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Owensboro, Rockport and Knottsville.

LAT...LON 3775 8683 3768 8721 3777 8726 3792 8698
      3790 8699 3791 8693 3790 8691 3789 8691
      3788 8689 3787 8691 3784 8691 3783 8689
      3784 8686 3779 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 253DEG 44KT 3775 8719

jp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 AM     HAIL             OWENSBORO               37.76N 87.12W
02/28/2017  E0.25 INCH       DAVIESS            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

K. SMITH