Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
120 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

In the very short term, departing thunderstorms and gusty gradient
winds will be the primary concern early this evening.
Showers/thunderstorms will exit the SE part of the FA by sunset as
the sruface cold front moves east into central KY. Gradient winds
will gradually decrease this evening as the surface low in the
vicinity of Lake Erie races northeast tonight. As such, will
maintain the current Wind Advisory strategy, allowing for a 00Z
expiration over the west half of the FA and a 03Z expiration across
the east half of the FA - the approximate times advisory criteria
values are no longer met.

Strong cold air advection behind the surface front will plummet
temps to freezing or below tonight. A cold NW flow aloft will set up
over the area in the wake of the departing 500mb trough. Despite
full sunshine Sunday temps will only rise into the 40s with max
temps north of Highway 13 in southern IL to around OWB only reaching
the lower 40s. Temperatures will rebound a bit on Monday as return
flow sets up west of the surface high moving on to the east of our
area and upper pattern trending to a more westerly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

While both the Euro and GFS 12Z deterministic runs both still
feature the dry cold fropa for the FA Tuesday pm/evening, the GFS
is much more robust as it stacks and closes Low pressure aloft
over the Tennessee valley by midday Wednesday. As a result, its
heights are some 100 meters lower at H5 than the Euro, and
presumably leads to colder output temps. This nuance aside, there
are little other differences in the solution for the long term.
Surface high pressure anchors the forecast thereafter,
prevailing/dominant throughout the Ms/Oh/Tn river valleys,
drifting slowly eastward with time toward the Thanksgiving Holiday
weekend.

The net result...a dry forecast that starts out seasonally mild
in the prefrontal airmass Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s,
and the cold fropa Tue night brings the shot of cold air, with
lows from the mid 20s north to around 30 south. Wednesday looks to
be the coldest blast of air, with highs struggling into the upper
30s and lower 40s, and Wed night lows solidly in the mid 20s
Fa-wide. Thanksgiving day will moderate thru the 40s for
highs/30s for lows...and as high pressure shifts eastward...return
flow southerlies will commence a warming period that will rebound
temps on a move back closer to seasonal norms as we finish out
the week/and the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Showers are possible behind the line of storms late this afternoon,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB. Gradients wind gusts AOA 30 knots will
gradually subside this evening. Otherwise MVFR Cigs will dominate
this afternoon with temporarly restricted visibilities mainly as
line of storm passes. The winds should diminish from 00z-06z and
continue from the NW. Skies will clear tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075-080-081-084-
     085-088-089-092-093.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ076>078-082-083-
     086-087-090-091-094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>004.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ005>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-191100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
330 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today in association with a
strong cold frontal passage. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts
cannot be ruled out with the storms, if the necessary parameters
all come together.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for all areas today, and into the
early evening hours generally for areas east of Interstate 57 and
U.S. Highway 45. Refer to the Advisory product for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
109 PM CST SAT NOV 18 2017

ILZ077-078-083-INZ081-082-085>087-KYZ014-182015-
White IL-Edwards IL-Wabash IL-Posey IN-Warrick IN-Vanderburgh IN-
Gibson IN-Pike IN-Union KY-
109 PM CST SAT NOV 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITE...WABASH...EDWARDS...
NORTHWESTERN WARRICK...GIBSON...VANDERBURGH...POSEY...CENTRAL PIKE
AND NORTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST/315 PM EST/...

At 109 PM CST/209 PM EST/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Lancaster to near
Eldorado. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Princeton, Mount Carmel, Mount Vernon, Carmi, Fort
Branch, Oakland City, Petersburg, Albion, Melody Hill, Grayville,
Lancaster, Haubstadt, Darmstadt, Owensville, Norris City, Poseyville,
West Salem, Lynnville and Winslow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST/600 PM
EST/ for southern and southeastern Illinois...southwestern Indiana...
and northwestern Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3857 8765 3851 8765 3842 8774 3854 8743
      3852 8712 3791 8751 3792 8755 3797 8760
      3783 8762 3793 8790 3780 8785 3780 8808
      3782 8809 3783 8803 3792 8813 3791 8837
      3824 8837 3826 8815 3857 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 264DEG 42KT 3858 8790 3787 8849

Smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 PM CST SAT NOV 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
11/18/2017  M47 MPH          CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   ASOS

&&

SMITTY