Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
128 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show the cold
front on our western doorstep already, but it has been standing in
place there for the past 2-3 hours, awaiting its upper energy push
that will propel it on across our FA. This will come later this
afternoon/evening. Meanwhile Laps data does show that wedge of
breakout clouds has allowed MUCapes to rise into 1500 ish J/KG
range, with upwards to nearly 2500 just to our south. This area
may be short-lived however, as additional dense cloud cover is
nearby. We'll thereby have a short window for strong/svr storm,
still in Marginal risk.

Fropa brings gusty shift to west/northwest winds and then
drier/cooler air replaces our almost summer like warm/humid
airmass for the next couple days thereafter. Dew points some
15-20F cooler are poised to usher across the FA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Ridging upper heights/high pressure will bring warming profile as
we head into the weekend. The next cold front takes shape and
makes passage Sunday afternoon and evening. Models are
synchronizing on this solution so we made only minor massages to
the overall long term forecast. Mainly, we direct Pops to
along/ahead of the front, ie mainly Sunday-Sunday night. In
addition, the preceding warm up, we bump up a degree or two from
the mean/blend, as well as the post frontal day 1 cooldown, where
we shave off a degree from the mean/blend. 80s/60s will be replaced
by 70s/50s, similar to the short term frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Satellite shows some break in the clouds but still plenty of
flight restricting bases scattered to broken across all terminals.
A cold front is poised just west of SEMO attm, and will be making
passage this evening. A chance of showers/thunderstorms with IFR
restrictions to both cigs/vsbys may accompany its passages. Winds
will shift to the west/northwest and gust upon passage.
Time/heights and mos suggest lingering low layer RH may result in
fog or low stratus type post frontal environ late tonight-early
tmrw, even with light nwlys. We'll hint at that as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
439 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
439 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The Storm Prediction Center continues to outlook a marginal risk
of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly
from 3 to 8 p.m. Damaging wind is the primary severe weather
concern, with a limited risk for large hail. Storm hazards will
also include lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the
region late Saturday night through Sunday night. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening,
especially across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

RJP/DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTRAL CITY            37.30N 87.13W
10/10/2017                   MUHLENBERG         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN CENTRAL CITY.
            ROAD CREWS HAVE PUT UP BARRICADES.

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTRAL CITY            37.30N 87.13W
10/10/2017                   MUHLENBERG         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLE DROVE INTO FLOODED ROAD AROUND THE 200 BLOCK OF
            SOUTH 2ND STREET IN CENTRAL CITY. DRIVER AND VEHICLE WERE
            MOVED TO SAFETY.

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N GREENVILLE          37.29N 87.18W
10/10/2017  M4.24 INCH       MUHLENBERG         KY   MESONET

            RAINFALL FROM 11 AM THROUGH 230 PM CDT. REPORT FROM
            KENTUCKY MESONET OBSERVATION SITE.

&&

K. SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE MORTONS GAP        37.25N 87.46W
10/10/2017                   HOPKINS            KY   PUBLIC

            FLAT CREEK ROAD OFF OF HIGHWAY 813 FLOODED. REPORT
            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

K. SMITH