Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
153 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Rapid adjustments made to reflect current activity across the WFO
PAH Forecast area. Greatest concern at the moment will be the
convective complex moving from East Central Missouri, then along
and remnant outflow/frontal boundaries south of the Interstate 64
corridor...then again along the common borders of Southeast
Missouri, Northeast Arkansas, West Kentucky and Tennessee. |

UPDATE Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convection is developing along outflow boundaries and existing
warm frontal boundary over Southern Missouri and parts of Southern
Illinois and the Pennyrile of West Kentucky. Some local concern
that some of these storms along the boundary may go severe
severe before the main bowing line (developing derecho?) reaches
the WFO PAH CWA later this afternoon and this evening. Waiting to
see what SPC might do with the MDT risk area in their midday
update. Also added Flash flood Watch for Carter/Ripley counties
from 1 pm today through 7 am Sunday.(see hydro section).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

New SWODY1 outlooks moderate risk for much of FA this pm/evening,
with all svr wx hazards possible. AM storms to our west are
modeled to affect western ptns FA later this morning, and may lay
out a boundary and also blow off debris clouds that could stall
development after daybreak. However, differential heating should
mix the atmos up enough to allow super charge to take place, with
high cape environ and steep mid level lapse rates revealed by
model soundings. At some point during the pm hours, cap should
break and convection become numerous to widespread, with
associated moderate risk of svr extending from late pm into/thru
the evening hours. Svr chances begin to diminish overnight as
large scale instability is lost the farther east storms push away
from source boundary/energy.

Primary cold front does not make actual passage until Sunday
evening, so until then, we'll be continuing pops along/ahead of
the boundary, and this includes a continued slight risk of severe
again for mainly Sunday afternoon/early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The extended period continues to be troublesome with models flip
flopping the best chances for rain. Still dealing with another
frontal boundary passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night. The GFS has
been the most consistent with the timing of this feature but not
as much on QPF. Still, believe that precip chances need to be
included for that time frame given the consistency of this signal
and the consistency of the GFS ensemble precip means. At this time
our confidence does not warrant anything more than slight
chances.

The ECMWF was never that excited about Tuesday's rain prospects and
still isn't. Instead, the 12Z ECMWF brings a front down into the
area on Wednesday through Thursday. That is the exact same time that
the GFS brings in a reinforcing sfc high pressure system that dries
us out. However, the 00Z ECMWF is back to looking like the GFS with
the drier weather on Wednesday with the incoming sfc high. The early
part of the extended forecast is going to be hinged on exactly what
this large upper level low over the upper Great Lakes region/eastern
Canada does and the timing and strength of impulses rotating around
it. For now, leaning toward the more consistent GFS for guidance.

Given the above discussion, POPs will be low Tuesday through
Thursday given uncertainty's in the model signals. There has been
a stronger signal for more wet weather as we head into the latter
half of the week. However, the upper level pattern is not being
consistently resoled by the models very well at all. Yesterdays
runs indicated more of a southwesterly flow pattern setting up and
now the upper flow stays more west northwesterly through Friday.
We will continue to have POPs for late week, but work will need to
be done on fine tuning these chances as models grasp a better
handle on things.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Current 18z Saturday TAF issuance will be a challenge with mutiple
boundaries focusing VFR to IFR changing conditions. Base forecast
includes thunderstorms in each TAF location. Main concern within
the next six ho9urs will be the KEVV, KCGI, and KPAH TAF locations
for lowered visibility.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

WPC recently upgraded parts of Southern Missouri in a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall through today and tonight. Given the
antecedent rainfall this morning, combined with the expected
position of the frontal boundary and outflows today, felt it was
prudent to add Carter and Ripley counties to the Flash Flood Watch
later this afternoon and tonight.

Depending on the propagation of the convection along the boundary
and the southern end of the expected wind-damaging MCS, may need
to extend the Flash Flood Watch to Wayne and Butler counties as
well. Will monitor the progression of the storms this afternoon.

Minimum rainfall of 1-1.25 inches is likely...with higher amounts
possible. Given the flashy nature of runoff and the terrain, as
well as the potential for higher public presence outdoors this
weekend, decided to go ahead with a Flash Flood Watch for Carter
and Ripley counties from 1 pm today through 7 am Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ107-108.

IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith
HYDROLOGY...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 pm CDT Sat May 27 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
255 pm CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Latest forecast trends indicate that an intense line of severe
thunderstorms will move into the northwest part of the outlook area,
namely southwest Illinois and Southeast Missouri, this afternoon and
again this evening. If a line of storms move through the area, they
will likely produce widespread wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. The
damaging winds could last up to an hour.

Depending on the intensity and duration of these lines of severe
storms, most of the thunderstorms could completely move through the
outlook area by midnight.

In addition to the damaging wind potential, isolated severe storms
may develop ahead of these lines of thunderstorms today and tonight.
These isolated storms would have the potential for large hail,
damaging winds, as well as a tornado.

At this time, the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms
is later this afternoon and this evening. Heavy rainfall and deadly
lightning will also be storm hazards. Flash Flooding may also be a
possibility in parts of Southeast Missouri late this afternoon and
tonight.

A moderate risk remains is in place for most of the outlook area,
except parts of Southwest Indiana and a very small part of northwest
Kentucky. The remainder of the outlook area remains in an enhanced
risk of severe thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast Sunday,
especially during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds
and hail are the primary severe weather hazards, with locally
heavy rain and deadly lightning also storm hazards.

Thunderstorms are also forecast Tuesday afternoon, and Wednesday
through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected today and tonight.

Smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
447 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             7 E CADIZ               36.87N 87.70W
05/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR EXIT 65 ON I-24.

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             CERULEAN                36.96N 87.71W
05/27/2017  M0.88 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
450 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CREAL SPRINGS           37.62N 88.84W
05/27/2017                   WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 55-70 MPH WIND GUSTS. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
            ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF COUNTY.

&&

GREGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             CERULEAN                36.96N 87.71W
05/27/2017  M1.75 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-280100-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION-JOHNSON-
ALEXANDER-PULASKI-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-PERRY MO-
BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, PINCKNEYVILLE,
WEST FRANKFORT, CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, JONESBORO,
VIENNA, CAIRO, MOUND CITY, HICKMAN, CLINTON, BARDWELL, WICKLIFFE,
PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT,
VAN BUREN, DONIPHAN, POPLAR BLUFF, BLOOMFIELD, SIKESTON,
CHARLESTON, AND NEW MADRID
453 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

....Damaging winds of 70 to 100 mph possible with line of storms
moving across Eastern and Southern Missouri...

A line of storms, capable of producing widespread and destructive
winds, are moving east, southeast between 45 and 50 mph over parts
of Eastern and Southern Missouri.

These storms will likely cause widespread tree damage, damage to
some homes, and numerous power outages.

Persons who are considering travel on Interstate 55 and 57 in
Southeast Missouri, as well as Highway 60, are urged to delay
travel from now until after 7 pm CDT.

These storms will likely move near Van Buren and Piedmont Missouri
around 5 pm CDT...Ava Illinois, Cape Girardeau and Dexter Missouri
around 6 pm...Creal Springs and Vienna Illinois, onward to New
Madrid Missouri around 7 pm CDT. These arrival times may vary with
the forward speed of the line of thunderstorms.

If you outside, be prepared to look for sturdy shelter. These are
particularly dangerous storms.

Smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
458 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE HOPKINSVILLE      36.93N 87.45W
05/27/2017  E60 MPH          CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EXIT 17 ON PENNYRILE PARKWAY

&&

SP