River Flood Warning 35, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
645 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Updated forecast products and gridded forecast to reflect
expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172 at 5 am CDT.

KPAH radar wind profiles showing more unidirectional flow now from
surface and aloft. The 50kt 3-5kft MSL southwesterly winds air
also shrinking, suggesting a gradual weakening of the low level
jet nearing its climatological diurnal minimum. Winds aloft are
also weakening slightly, holding near the 50-60 knots in the
9-25kft MSL layer. Suspect this is an baroclinic and ageostrophic
response to the upper low in the Southwest U.S. digging and
building in the mid-upper level ridge from southeast to northwest
across the WFO PAH forecast area.

KPAH radar reflectivity also suggests that stronger updrafts are
moving into a more elevated area of the frontal zone, away from
the adjacent upshear zone of the surface-near surface frontal
boundary. This transitional change will limit severe potential,
but with a persistent moisture influx, this will still maintain a
flood potential through the morning, gradually diminishing from
east to west toward southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Still have to work on timing of severe thunderstorm potential, but
anticipate it will be delayed until later Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Flash Flood Watch, including the extension from the Friday
afternoon package into Southwest Indiana and the border counties
into Northwest Kentucky will remain in effect until Sunday
evening.

Unidirectional wind fields above 5kft MSL on the KPAH WSR-88D is
helping to main sufficient shear for updrafts above the elevated
warm front (now stalled frontal boundary). Below 5kft MSL, there
is sufficient directional shear, with W-SWly 50kt 850 mb winds
riding over the frontal zone. The combination is supporting linear
bands with updrafts sufficient to support hail as well as
excessive amounts of rain given the rich low level moisture
transport and training taking place along and just north of the
frontal boundary. With pristine (not polluted by convection)
moisture inflow under the EML south of the frontal boundary,
excessive rainfall amounts will continue through daybreak.

Should see some relaxation of inflow along the boundary as the low
level jet diminishes by mid-morning.

Utilized Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (rainfall amount)
estimates for remainder of Flash Flood Watch period.

The vast majority of the highest QPF will be retracted back to
the Southeast Missouri Foothills this morning as upper low deepens
over the Four Corners area and sharpens the frontal zone in
Arkansas and Southern Missouri. As the upper low ejects out this
evening and overnight into Sunday morning, the boundary will lift,
but convective line segments will move likely regenerate into
Southeast Missouri, supporting additional strong to severe
thunderstorm activity. Given the slow eastward progression of this
system, excessive rainfall will still be a major concern and
threat.

By Sunday, the WFO PAH forecast area will be well into the warm
sector. There will be the potential of some pre-frontal convective
activity in the 15-21z (10 am - 4 pm) time frame on Sunday, which
may muddle severe potential across parts of West Kentucky.
However, given the wind fields expected across the cold front as
it moves slowly east through the daytime hours on Sunday, there
will still be the potential for damaging winds along the front and
possibly some embedded tornadoes along the frontal boundary.

Once the cold front moves through Sunday night, cooler and drier
air should dominate Monday through Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The signal still remains consistent for a midweek system to
follow in behind the exiting closed low as it moves into the Great
Lakes and eastern Canada. The medium range guidance has been
suggesting a stronger shortwave will deepen in the northwest flow
and impacting the WFO PAH forecast area beginning late Tuesday and
persisting into Wednesday, before the trough axis moves through on
Thursday. Dry weather is then expected for the remainder of
extended forecast period as ridging builds into the area.

There still appears to be the potential for a band of southwest to
northeast oriented of heavy rainfall. The placement of this band
is still variable given the variability of medium range model
solutions, so will just highlight in the hazardous weather outlook
for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Gradual improvement in ceilings and visibilities expected for WFO
PAH TAF locations as ridging builds in from the southeast to cap
convective activity and shift winds to the south as the effective
frontal boundary moves north of each of the locations this
morning.

Reduced ceilings again after midnight Sunday (05z Sunday) as
convection moves back toward KCGI Saturday night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KYZ001>005-014-
     018-019.

&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
429 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
429 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of Southern
Illinois, Southeast Missouri, Southwest Indiana, and West Kentucky.

It is strongly recommended that residents and travelers in the
flash flood watch area stay away from flooded roadways and low
lying areas. Flooding conditions are expected to worsen in these
areas over the weekend. Refer to the Watch product for additional
details.

Scattered severe thunderstorms will still be possible during the
pre-dawn this Saturday, then again late Saturday night. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to be the main severe
weather hazards. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect until Sunday evening.
Refer to the Watch product for additional details.

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
also possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are again expected to be the main severe
weather hazards. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

There is a chance of thunderstorms again Wednesday. Any storms
that develop are not expected to be severe at this time, but
additional heavy rains could cause flooding issues, or impede
recovery from any flooding that has already occurred over this
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be required again Saturday night
and then again Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the
outlook area.

Reports of severe weather, as well as heavy rainfall amounts in
excess of an inch, are encouraged along with any reports of
flooding. Please ensure that these reports are relayed to the
National Weather Service in Paducah Kentucky.

Smith

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W NEWBURGH            37.95N 87.42W
04/29/2017  M1.61 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LAST 6 HOURS ONLY.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1244 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MULKEYTOWN          37.96N 89.11W
04/29/2017  M2.38 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1245 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HENDERSON               37.84N 87.58W
04/29/2017  M3.00 INCH       HENDERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RICKS