River Flood Warning 15, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Fairly high confidence in the short term.

A cold front was perched just northwest of the region. It extended
from Wisconsin to near St Louis and Springfield MO into Texas. By
00z this front should be nearing the confluence of the Mississippi
and Ohio rivers. The front should exit the area by 12z Thursday.
Strong and some severe storms were developing well ahead of the
front over SEMO this morning and spreading into southwest Illinois
this afternoon. These storms were fairly isolated but producing
some winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail. As the front
approaches later this afternoon and evening would expect to see
more widespread convection with severe and heavy rain possible.
After midnight start to end the thunder chances from west to east
as we lose our CAPE. Expect a lull for Thursday. A warm front will
lift into the area Friday bringing rain chances back to the
region. We will cool down a good deal Thursday and then rebound
right back above normal Friday as the warm makes its way through.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Confidence remains high on an unsettled upcoming weekend with both
heavy rain and severe potential. Less confidence in the exact timing
and location of where the heaviest rain and best severe threat will
be.

An upper level trough will pivot into the southern Plains on
Saturday as ridging takes shape over the southeast U.S. On Sunday
the trough will eject northeast into our region, moving into the
Great Lakes on Monday. Deep southwesterly flow will remain in place
this weekend, with ample moisture present for heavy rains.

On Saturday, a warm front will lift north of the region resulting in
precip chances decreasing from the south. Most of the area may end
up dry by the afternoon and evening hours as our area becomes fully
engulfed in the warm sector. Our northern and western counties may
not see as long of a break in the rain and storms. By Saturday
night, the upper level trough is nudging close enough to increase
PoPs from the west as the better lift and upper dynamics move
closer. Highest PoPs will push across the area through the day on
Sunday. At this time, it looks the back edge will push east through
the evening and much of the area may end up dry by after midnight.

As far as severe potential on Sunday, it will be dictated by just
how much instability is present and the exact timing of the front
through the area. Models hint there will at least be modest
instability along with strong forcing and deep layer shear.
Currently, the cold front looks to advance east through the area
during the afternoon into the early evening hrs, which would be near
prime time for enhanced storm activity. Will continue to monitor
this closely. Guidance continues to indicate several inches of QPF
Saturday night into Sunday, refer to the latest Hydrologic Outlook
for details. Holding off on issuing any sort of Flood Watch at this
time.

The trough lifts north on Monday, leaving the Quad State dry for
Monday and at least the first part of Tuesday. A shortwave looks to
push into the area sometime later Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs
returning possibly by Tuesday afternoon and increasing into
Wednesday.

Temperatures will be warmest on Saturday, into the 80s in many
locations, before cooling down below normal in the 60s on Monday. A
warming trend then commences with most areas back above 70 on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

With the approach and passage of a cold front, all sites will have
periods of showers and thunderstorms along with VFR/MVFR
cigs/vsbys through the first 4-6 six hours of the period, light
drizzle and MVFR cigs/vsbys for 4-6 hours, then inproving to VFR
during the last few hours of the period. Southerly winds gusting
up to 20-25 mph early will gradually swing around to the west
generally AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
438 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
438 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The development of isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois through early this
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to form
along and ahead of a cold front over southeast Missouri by mid to
late afternoon. Initially, storms will be capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

A line of thunderstorms should progress into southern Illinois
and far western Kentucky by early evening. Damaging winds will be
the primary concern.

The severe threat will diminish quickly as the storms move east
towards the Wabash River and the Land Between the Lakes by late
evening. Lightning and locally heavy rain will also accompany
thunderstorm activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Friday through
Sunday. Heavy rainfall is expected over portions of the region.
Please refer to the Hydrologic Outlook for details.

In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through
the period. At this time, the best chance of severe storms appears
to be with a warm frontal passage Friday night, in addition to the
cold frontal passage Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed by mid to late afternoon
in southeast Missouri, and throughout southern Illinois and the
Purchase Area of western Kentucky by early evening.

Spotters are also encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts for
possible activation over the upcoming weekend.

RJP/GM

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