Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Paducah, KY

681 
WGUS73 KPAH 081658
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

KYC177-081845-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-171008T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Muhlenberg KY-
1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
MUHLENBERG COUNTY...

At 1157 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated the heaviest rain axis had 
pivoted to the north. However, additional scattered showers, with 
locally heavy rainfall rates of one half to three quarters of an 
inch an hour, will keep flash flooding as an imminent threat, as it 
falls over some areas that have already received 6 plus inches of 
rainfall. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Central City, Greenville, Powderly, Graham, Weir, Drakesboro, Bremen
and South Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8704 3704 8725 3705 8726 3706 8724
      3712 8732 3716 8734 3719 8731 3724 8736
      3731 8738 3731 8734 3739 8730 3738 8722
      3741 8717 3742 8710 3738 8710 3734 8714
      3733 8710 3737 8707 3736 8703 3733 8700

$$

540 
WGUS73 KPAH 081843
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
143 PM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

KYC177-081853-
/O.EXP.KPAH.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-171008T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Muhlenberg KY-
143 PM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MUHLENBERG COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 145
PM CDT...

The heaviest rains have ended. Please continue to heed any remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3706 8704 3704 8725 3705 8726 3706 8724
      3712 8732 3716 8734 3719 8731 3724 8736
      3731 8738 3731 8734 3739 8730 3738 8722
      3741 8717 3742 8710 3738 8710 3734 8714
      3733 8710 3737 8707 3736 8703 3733 8700

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
708 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Quite an active short term period coming up.

Firstly, what is now tropical storm Nate will weaken fairly
quickly over land this morning as it takes rapid aim on the TN
River Valley later today. Deformation rains on the northwest side
of the system will likely continue to rotate northwest toward
potions of southwest IN, and esp the Pennyrile region of western
KY. Doppler radar estimates some areas of the Pennyrile from
northern Trigg county through Muhlenberg county have already
received upwards of 4 inches of rainfall. Another inch or two
cannot be ruled out today in that area, but thinking is rain rates
will stay low enough to preclude a flash flood watch at this
time. In addition, this area was quite dry leading into this
event. Will need to monitor though for the possibility of a few
short fuse headlines today. Again...there will be a fairly sharp
cut off to significant rains as one heads west toward the MS
River.

Should be a temporary break in precip chances later tonight and
Monday as weak high pressure moves in behind the remnants of
Nate. Main concern for tonight lies with the possibility of dense
fog formation as winds go calm and conditions remain quite damp
and humid with sfc dew point hanging in the 60s. Even if skies do
no clear, there is a chance that ceilings could lower to the deck
with time overnight. If and where fog does indeed form, it could
be quite dense.

The next weather system in the form of a very potent mid level
short wave and its associated cold front will be moving into the
mid MS River Valley/lower OH River Valley region on
Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Moderate instability is forecast to
develop Tuesday afternoon ahead of the sfc front. In addition,
forecast soundings indicate strong deep-layer shear may be present
as the mid level short wave approaches from the west. If current
timing of the system remains unchanged, would not be surprised to
see much of our region go under a decent risk for sct strong to
severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, with even a few supercells
in the mix. Will need to monitor trends.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Generally good model agreement lends higher than average confidence
to the forecast through the long term. In the wake of Tuesday's
weather system, an upper level ridge is forecast to expand northward
from the Deep South into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
heading into the weekend. This should result in dry weather through
the period. While a brief cooldown is expected on Wednesday in the
wake of Tuesday's frontal passage, a return to readings well above
normal appears probable late in the week as winds turn southerly on
the back side of departing surface high pressure. In fact, highs in
the mid 80s are expected by Friday and Saturday, which is 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Biggest challenge is timing of the arrival of moisture/rain from
Nate. The trend will be for rain to develop across west KY and
shift north northwest with time today. MVFR cigs will be likely
by the time the rain arrives along with periodic drops in the vsby
with the heavier rainfall. The trend will be for the rain to
taper off west to east Sunday afternoon/early evening. All signals
then point to a big drop in cigs/vsbys during the evening hours,
possibly leading to a more wisdespread dense fog set up for later
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
436 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
436 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be possible today, mainly
over the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms will forecast Tuesday. A few severe
thunderstorms will also be possible, with damaging winds and hail
the primary storm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
941 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLOOD            NEW CONCORD             36.60N 88.07W
10/08/2017                   CALLOWAY           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER IS TOPPING A PORTION OF HIGHWAY 121 BETWEEN NEW
            CONCORD AND THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE.

&&

DAVIDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1009 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSW GREENVILLE        37.13N 87.22W
10/08/2017  M6.12 INCH       MUHLENBERG         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SINCE 9 PM FRIDAY REPORTED BY
            EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

SMITTY