Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
911 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Storms continue to advance east/southeast across north-central to
west-central Oklahoma late this evening. Short-range CAMs suggest
that this group of storms will continue its southeast advance
overnight, feeding off a low-level jet and supported by a
mid/upper-level wave passing over Oklahoma. Storm intensity should
diminish late tonight, but storms are not expected to dissipate
until sometime Sunday morning.

Heavy rain is expected from the storms, especially through about
3 am. Some flooding may occur, especially in areas where storms
line up in the same direction as their movement.

We updated the forecast around 8 pm, and will continue to make
adjustments if trends change from expectations, or if we can
refine the details better.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected through the overnight
hours, especially from I40 northward. Hail up to the size of golf
balls and damaging wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible under
the strongest storms. By 06-07Z most of the storms will be located
across northern and west central OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Concerns continue to be with severe potential tonight as well as
heavy rainfall across parts of the area through Monday and perhaps
late this upcoming week as well.

Expect isolated storms to be possible as early as 3-4pm this
afternoon across parts of southwestern OK into western north TX
with more widespread activity developing later this evening across
northwest/northern Oklahoma. Surface boundary and convergence
along this boundary from southwest Kansas into the panhandle
region will be the focus for convective initiation as upper
shortwave makes its way east/southeast into the region.
Instability and deep layer wind shear will be sufficient for a few
severe storms with both a hail and wind threat.

As we move through the evening these storms are expected to
develop into a line or complex of storms that will continue to
pose a wind threat as they move east and southeast across the area
overnight. Heavy rain potential exists as well, but expected to
remain rather isolated in nature as storms remain progressive.

Main synoptic boundary is expected to drop south to near the I-44
corridor Sunday afternoon and again will be focus for additional
rain/thunderstorm development. Some strong storms will be
possible, mainly across southern half of Oklahoma south into north
Texas. Heavy rain will also continue to be a concern.

Best rain chances remain across southern Oklahoma into north Texas
through the first part of the upcoming week before several
additional disturbances drop southeast across the southern Plains
during the second half of the week into next weekend. This will
keep rain chances in the forecast for much of the area, along with
cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  92  70  81 /  70  30  50  40
Hobart OK         75  94  70  82 /  60  30  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  77  99  71  86 /  30  50  70  60
Gage OK           67  85  64  82 /  60  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     70  87  67  81 /  70  30  20  10
Durant OK         76  94  73  86 /  30  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening and
tonight across portions of northern and western Oklahoma.

Location...
The Slight Risk is north of a line from Cheyenne to Clinton to
Stillwater. A Marginal Risk surrounds the Slight Risk area and is
north of a line from Wichita Falls to Chickasha to Shawnee.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be through 3 am.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to quarter size are
the primary threats.

Discussion...
Storms over the northwest half of Oklahoma will continue to
consolidate and move east-southeastward. The damaging wind threat
will continue through about 3 am.

.Heavy Rain/Flooding...
Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall across the area this
evening and tonight, resulting in localized flooding. The most
likely locations to experience heavy rain and flooding are
portions of northern and eastern Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms chances will continue through next Friday across
parts of Oklahoma and north Texas, with the greatest chance
occurring on Sunday and Monday. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible at times, but
widespread or significant severe weather is not expected.

.Heavy Rain/Flooding...
Thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall across the area
anytime Sunday through next Friday, especially Sunday through
Monday. Several inches of rainfall may occur across parts of
Oklahoma and north Texas through the middle of next week. The
heavy rainfall may result in flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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