Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 06Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A few patches of low clouds and possible BR will cover north-
central Oklahoma overnight, mainly affecting areas north of KOKC,
including KPNC. These clouds and BR should dissipate by mid-
morning. A thunderstorm complex over northwest Kansas will move
southeast overnight. It is forecast by most short-range models to
dissipate before it reaches Oklahoma. However, if it does survive,
it will reach central and northern Oklahoma by 12Z. Amended TAFs
will be issued if it becomes likely that those storms will reach
any of our TAF sites. Yet another complex of thunderstorms is
forecast to develop Monday afternoon, as a mid-level wave (now
over southern Colorado) strengthens and moves into the High Plains
of Colorado, then into southwest Kansas. The exact timing and
position of this complex is still not very well established, so
some adjustments will likely be necessary to the current TAFs as
the formation and trajectory become more apparent. At this time,
it appears that the storms will form over southwest Kansas and
northwest Oklahoma at approximately 03/2200Z, then advance east,
arriving at KPNC/KOKC/KOUN around 04/0200-04/0400Z.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Rain chances and location of said rain continues to be main
challenge moving forward the next several days.

MCV moving across southwest toward central Oklahoma expected to
be mechanism for development of scattered convection across
portions of central into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and
evening. Sufficient instability exists for a few marginally severe
storms, but should be more multicell and pulse as wind shear
remains very weak.

As we move through the next several days it will be tough
to really nail down timing and locations, much like today will
likely be driven by small scale features that will not show
themselves on scales that models are able to get a handle on.
Therefore will have to cont to follow the signals the models do
pick up on. The first of which is a minor shortwave that drop
southeast out of the high plains of CO overnight. This will aid in
development of complex of storms that may move back into western
Oklahoma overnight and approach central Oklahoma toward morning.
This feature then continue to drift south/southeast keeping better
rain chances in areas near and northeast of the OKC metro
Tuesday.

Next feature will be shortwave that drops south through Plains
Tuesday night into Wednesday, which may provide one more day with
chance of rain come Wednesday.

After this we begin to come under the influence of upper ridge
that build north and northeast into central Rockies into the
central Plains. This will likely shut off the better rain chances
and leave us with hot and muggy weather by the end of the week
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  50
Hobart OK         93  73  95  73 /  30  30  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  20  30
Gage OK           93  68  93  69 /  20  40  20  30
Ponca City OK     88  71  87  71 /  30  60  40  50
Durant OK         91  74  91  74 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/17/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-040315-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1012 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...rest of Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe storms will remain possible across portions of
south central and southeast Oklahoma through midnight. Hail up to
the size of ping pong balls and wind gusts to 70 mph will be
possible.

Early Monday morning, additional showers and storms could move
into parts of northern and western Oklahoma from Kansas. A few of
these storms may be strong to marginally severe with hail up to
the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph.

Heavy rain leading to flash flooding will remain a concern through
early Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible at times Monday though
Thursday. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
again on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across northern and central
Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1205 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

OKZ047-051-030530-
Johnston OK-Marshall OK-
1205 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Johnston and
northern Marshall Counties Until 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1204 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Madill, moving
southeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Madill, Kingston, Mannsville, Ravia, Russett, Little City,
northeastern Lake Texoma and Oakland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 9677 3413 9690 3429 9680 3412 9656
      3411 9659 3410 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 303DEG 21KT 3413 9681

MBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
135 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

OKZ042-043-047-030700-
Coal OK-Pontotoc OK-Johnston OK-
135 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR west central Coal...southeastern
Pontotoc and north central Johnston Counties Until 200 AM CDT...

AT 133 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Ada, moving southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Stonewall, Tupelo, Centrahoma, Fittstown and Jesse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 9673 3477 9669 3461 9632 3442 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 305DEG 18KT 3470 9665

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
143 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

OKZ041>043-046>048-050>052-030730-
Love OK-Coal OK-Atoka OK-Carter OK-Pontotoc OK-Johnston OK-
Marshall OK-Murray OK-Bryan OK-
143 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Love...southwestern
Coal...southwestern Atoka...southeastern Carter...southeastern
Pontotoc...Johnston...Marshall...southern Murray and Bryan Counties
Until 230 AM CDT...

AT 141 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles north of Fittstown to near Mead, moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Ardmore, Ada, Durant, Madill, Tishomingo, Kingston, Dickson, Colbert,
Caddo, Mannsville, Bokchito, Ravia, Achille, Stonewall, Wapanucka,
Silo, Tupelo, Milburn, Caney and Kenefic.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 25 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 9615 3376 9618 3377 9629 3369 9635
      3378 9643 3384 9662 3390 9659 3392 9667
      3383 9671 3387 9681 3385 9686 3396 9692
      3394 9697 3409 9718 3434 9701 3435 9669
      3474 9669 3477 9653 3460 9632 3387 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 262DEG 9KT 3469 9663 3400 9649

MBS