Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
918 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.UPDATE...
Increased POPs across northern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Storms will affect mainly northwest Oklahoma late this evening and
tonight, possibly making it into north-central portions of
Oklahoma before weakening. Little in the way of instability but
strong cloud-bearing layer shear allowing for elevated supercell
structures over the northern Texas Panhandle. Shear weakens
farther east so do not expect a persistent hail threat from any
storms.

Increased POPs across northern half of Oklahoma for the overnight
period given current radar observations and latest highres model
output.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION... /For the 00z TAFs/
Showers may impact northwest and north TAF sites later tonight,
and there is a low probability of MVFR ceilings late tonight into
early tomorrow morning, mainly for the central and northern
Oklahoma TAF sites. The best chance of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings will be tomorrow across northwest and north central
Oklahoma. Instability may be sufficient for thunderstorms at Ponca
City tomorrow afternoon, and possibly as far south and west as
OKC/OUN. Uncertainties for this forecast are mainly with ceiling
heights, and timing of the greatest chance for
shower/thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another round of showers and storms are expected across portions of
the fa tonight into early Wednesday. An upper low is expected to
move NE across parts of the southern and central Plains Tuesday. At
the surface, a low is expected to develop in NE NM and move into
western north Texas/southwest OK by tomorrow morning. This sfc low
will then move NE across the fa with a cold front moving across the
area Tuesday/Tuesday night. Showers/storms are expected to move into
NW/N portions of the fa tonight into Tuesday morning as the upper
low approaches the area. Chances will increase across much of the
area Tuesday afternoon/night as the sfc low and front move across
the fa and upper low continues to track NE across the Plains. The
question for Tuesday will be the amount of moisture return to the
fa. However, models show enough moisture along with steepening laps
rates could be sufficient for some strong to severe storms to be
possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, mainly in eastern portions of
the fa.

Rain chances will end Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the
upper low begins to move away from the area. The rest of the week
will remain dry with warm/hot temperatures expected this weekend.
Shower and thunderstorm changes will return to parts of the area
Sunday into early next week as another upper system moves across the
Plains dragging a cold front across the fa.

Fire Weather...
Increased fire weather concerns will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of western north Texas where rh will likely drop
into the 20-30 percent range and gusty southwest to west winds are
expected. The recent rains have helped the vegetation green up a bit
across the area but the green up may not be quite enough to
completely mitigate the expected conditions. Not expecting to need a
Red Flag Warning but a RFD statement may be needed for this area
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  74  45  62 /  10  30  30  10
Hobart OK         49  67  41  63 /  10  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  52  79  46  67 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           44  49  38  60 /  60  70  50  10
Ponca City OK     49  64  44  60 /  20  70  70  20
Durant OK         54  82  50  65 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
912 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
912 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Storms will move into northwest Oklahoma from the Texas Panhandle
late this evening and spread eastward overnight, staying north of
Interstate-40. As the storms move east, they are expected to
weaken. There is a chance that a few storms may produce marginally
severe hail over northwest parts of Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and evening, mainly near and east of line extending from Ponca
City and Stillwater, to Pauls Valley and Ardmore. There is a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms east of Cherokee, to
Watonga, to Duncan. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary concerns.

Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast next Sunday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire dangers will be seen across western north Texas
Tuesday afternoon with gusty southwest winds and low humidities.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
948 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

OKZ009-014-040330-
Roger Mills OK-Ellis OK-
948 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Roger Mills and
southwestern Ellis Counties Until 1030 PM CDT...

AT 946 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Higgins, moving east at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 10000 3629 9966 3589 9978 3596 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 279DEG 33KT 3614 10018

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1049 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

OKZ014-040415-
Roger Mills OK-
1049 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwest Roger Mills County
Until 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1046 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Allison, moving east at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 10000 3588 9974 3586 9972 3585 9969
      3560 9969 3563 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 271DEG 35KT 3575 10010

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1102 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

OKZ009-014-040430-
Roger Mills OK-Ellis OK-
1102 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Roger Mills and
southeastern Ellis Counties Until 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1100 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Harmon, moving east at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9969 3613 9938 3590 9938 3590 9937
      3587 9938 3594 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 275DEG 25KT 3602 9959

BRB

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