Severe Thunderstorm Warning 857, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
248 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Near term focus is on convective potential across far southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Latest visible satellite shows
some enhancement in the vicinity of Wichita Falls over the last
hour, and some more substantial echos within the last few minutes.
Although deep layer shear is fairly weak for organized storms,
strong diabatic heating and a moist boundary layer with fairly
steep mid level lapse rates are contributing to at least moderate
instability. With such a well mixed boundary layer, isolated at
least brief strong to severe wind gusts will be the primary
concern.

Convection should wane later this evening but it's not out of the
question that isolated redevelopment may occur later tonight
across south-central Oklahoma as warm advection strengthens.

Convergence along a weak surface boundary tomorrow could be
sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development late in the day
as we destabilize once again. However the capping inversion
appears more substantial than today, owing to subsidence/mid-level
height rises seen in the models. This should limit convective
development. We've confined probabilities to the far northeast and
to the south-central portion of the area. SREF members all have
varying degrees of CIN, but the general consensus is less CIN and
a better chance of convective initiation over south-central
Oklahoma. This may need to be refined in the overnight forecast.

Thursday holds some potential for isolated convective development
in western Oklahoma given a subtle shortwave trough and continued
moist unstable air mass. We'll re-evaluate this further tonight
and tomorrow and may need to re-introduce low probabilities then.

Above normal temperatures will continue until deep western trough
approaches and clouds/rain chances increase. Sunday through Monday
look like potentially the wettest periods as one shortwave trough
rotates around deeper closed low. Medium range guidance varies
somewhat on character of longwave early next week so it is unclear
at the moment how long the more significant rain chances may
linger.

Fire weather is another concern over the next few days,
particularly this afternoon, Thursday and Friday afternoons, as RH
falls across western Oklahoma coinciding with enhanced southerly
winds.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         94  72  96  73 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  97  74  98  76 /  20  30  10  20
Gage OK           97  66  88  65 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     94  76  94  75 /  20  10  10  20
Durant OK         93  74  94  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

03/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1146 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
evening across western north texas and southwest Oklahoma. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible with hail up to the size
of half dollars and 60 to 70 mph wind gusts. Brief heavy rainfall
and frequent cloud to ground lightning will also accompany any of
the storms.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible across
portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon due
to hot temperatures, strong, gusty south winds, and low relative
humidity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
An approaching storm system will bring increasing chances of
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible across
portions of Oklahoma and north Texas Wednesday through Friday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             4 N GRANDFIELD          34.29N 98.69W
09/19/2017  E1.25 INCH       TILLMAN            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW WICHITA FALLS      33.84N 98.58W
09/19/2017                   WICHITA            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            3-4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             1 N GRANDFIELD          34.25N 98.69W
09/19/2017  E0.75 INCH       TILLMAN            OK   PUBLIC

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
447 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

OKZ044-TXZ086-090-192215-
Cotton OK-Clay TX-Wichita TX-
447 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Cotton...
northwestern Clay and east central Wichita Counties Until 515 PM
CDT...

AT 445 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast of
Sheppard AFB, moving northeast at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3400 9840 3406 9855 3425 9849 3416 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 207DEG 15KT 3405 9846

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
508 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

OKZ037-192245-
Tillman OK-
508 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Tillman County Until
545 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Loveland, moving northeast at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3428 9898 3451 9876 3442 9866 3434 9866
      3433 9861 3428 9861 3416 9882 3416 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 226DEG 15KT 3427 9885

..speg.

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