Severe Thunderstorm Warning 836, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact most sites
overnight. Heaviest activity will create temporary MVFR conditions
this evening. Ceililngs may drop into MVFR cat late tonight across
central into southern sections of the area before skies clear by mid-
morning. Northeast winds of 8 to 12kts will remain with a shift back
to the southeast at both GAG/WWR by Wednesday afternoon.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front continues to slowly move south this afternoon, and the
afternoon convection has already developed along the front in
southwest Oklahoma and the southeast Texas panhandle. Despite
decent instability, wind shear is very low, so although some
storms may briefly become strong or marginally severe, organized
severe weather is unlikely. The primary issue will be locally
heavy rainfall/flooding with the combination of high precipitable
water and slow movement. The special 17Z OUN sounding recorded a
precipitable water content of 1.65 inches, just under the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Storm chances continue through
tomorrow, mainly close to the frontal zone in the south. Return
moisture leads to some additional storm chances tomorrow night
into Friday, mainly west. Then attention shifts to the tropical
system advertised by the models to move inland on the Texas Gulf
Coast late Friday or Saturday. It still remains a question how far
north the moisture will push through Texas or if we will remain
in a more subsident region, so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
later in this forecast period.

Temperatures will remain below average for this time of the year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  85  62  84 /  50  10  10  10
Hobart OK         70  86  64  86 /  60  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  87  70  87 /  60  40  20  20
Gage OK           63  86  61  85 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     61  85  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         72  87  69  85 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
523 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-232230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
523 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to numerous thunderstorms will continue across central
and southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas through
tonight. Some strong to severe storms are possible with a threat
of damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail up to the size of half
dollars. Severe potential will decrease after 10 pm this evening.

.Heavy Rainfall/Flooding...
Localized heavy rainfall is possible now through early Wednesday
morning across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. The heaviest
rainfall is expected over portions of southwestern Oklahoma. This
could lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
At least a low chance of thunderstorms will be possible each day
Wednesday through next Monday. Strong winds and locally heavy
rainfall may be possible with storms during the next several days.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
650 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

OKZ024-230015-
Canadian OK-
650 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Canadian County
Until 715 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located 3 miles west of
Mustang and 3 miles south of Mustang, moving northwest at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Heavy rainfall...

LAT...LON 3546 9767 3533 9768 3533 9775 3534 9776
      3534 9781 3533 9781 3548 9790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 154DEG 6KT 3540 9780 3534 9770

..speg.

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