Severe Thunderstorm Warning 790, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
259 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to lift ENE
over central and northeastern OK this morning as an initial mid
level shortwave does the same. Further south, additional moist
convection has developed along and north of a stationary boundary
over northern TX. These storms may become strong to severe
especially south of the Red River where destabilization has
occured. Lastly, a MCV is slowly progressing eastward over the
extreme SE TX panhandle. Expect coverage to increase over the
southern FA thru the early evening hours with this feature.
Given the lack of instability and forcing further north we
decided to cancel the flood watch for all but southern OK where
higher rainfall rates are expected. An MCS may track over the Red
River late tonight, moving into SE OK. Most of the rainfall
should end late tonight, although some remnant activity will
remain east of I35.

The next round of moist convection is expected late Sunday through
Monday initially over western OK, and then across central and
eastern OK thru the day. This activity will be associated with a
mid level shortwave trough. Current projections suggest this
feature will likely be too progressive to result in much of a
flood threat. After a brief break Monday night, rain chances will
return Tue morning as yet another wave impacts the region.
Finally, by mid week a cold front may accompany a mid to upper
trough traversing the central CONUS and stall it somewhere near
our region. Rain chances may remain confined to northern OK by
this time, however, as the subtropical ridge starts to nudge into
the Southern Plains from the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  82  70  87 /  60  20  40  50
Hobart OK         69  85  71  91 /  60  20  60  30
Wichita Falls TX  72  88  73  95 /  70  20  60  30
Gage OK           65  82  68  89 /  30  20  50  20
Ponca City OK     67  83  68  85 /  30  20  20  30
Durant OK         74  86  72  90 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ027>032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

23/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. A Marginal Risk
surrounds the Slight Risk.

Location...
The Slight Risk area covers locations along and south of a
Vernon, Texas to Lawton and Atoka line. Outside the Slight Risk
area, a Marginal Risk extends to a line from Quanah, Texas to
Hobart, Oklahoma to Pauls Valley to Coalgate.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe weather will be from 2 pm to
10 pm.

Impacts...
Half dollar size hail.
Wind gusts to 65 mph.
Very heavy rainfall.

.Discussion...
An area of widespread rain and thunderstorms will diminish slowly
this afternoon. Strong storms will be possible across the southern
part of this rain area. By mid-afternoon, heating will result in
moderate instability near a weak frontal boundary near the Red
River. Scattered strong to severe storms may develop along and
near the front by 2 pm, and continue well into the evening.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should be ready for severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Heavy Rain/Flooding...
Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across the area
Sunday through early next week. A Flood Watch is in effect for
most of Oklahoma through sunrise Sunday morning.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible each day. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible at times, but
widespread significant severe weather is not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
345 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

OKZ039-045-122130-
Stephens OK-Jefferson OK-
345 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Stephens and northern
Jefferson Counties Until 430 PM CDT...

AT 340 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Loco, moving north at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of peas...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Reduced visibility due to very heavy rainfall...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Duncan, Waurika, Comanche, Ringling, Velma, Loco, Addington,
southeastern Waurika Lake, Empire City and Cornish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 9809 3455 9805 3454 9756 3406 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 193DEG 19KT 3423 9775

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXZ089-090-122145-
Clay TX-Archer TX-
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Clay and
southeastern Archer Counties Until 445 PM CDT...

AT 344 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of Windthorst, moving north at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Reduced visibility due to heavy rainfall...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Scotland, Windthorst, southwestern Lake Arrowhead, Shannon and Joy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 9848 3365 9809 3346 9818 3347 9842
      3340 9842 3340 9849 3341 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 194DEG 10KT 3343 9836

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
410 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXZ087-122200-
Knox TX-
410 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Knox County Until
500 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Truscott, moving east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of pennies...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Reduced visibility due to heavy rainfall...

Locations impacted include...
Gilliland and Truscott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 9984 3382 9983 3383 9981 3382 9980
      3382 9975 3380 9975 3381 9974 3380 9973
      3382 9972 3380 9971 3380 9970 3382 9970
      3381 9963 3380 9962 3369 9961 3368 9999
      3383 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 263DEG 15KT 3374 9994

03

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