Severe Thunderstorm Warning 781, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.AVIATION...
11/00Z TAFs. Primarily VFR conditions expected outside of TSRA.
For the first 3 to 6 hours of the forecast, main impacts from TSRA
will be brief from KPNC to KOKC/KOUN to KSPS. More in the way of
widespread and longer lasting shower and storm activity still
appears possible overnight so will keep TEMPO and prevailing MVFR
conditions going into tomorrow morning. Outside of convective
strong wind gusts, prevailing winds will be light through the
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will keep this short as strong storms are already ongoing. In the
broad sense, it is likely that we will experience a couple of
rounds of thunderstorms today and overnight. But the specifics are
still a little in question. The current storms in northwest
Oklahoma have lost a little punch as they moved in from the
Oklahoma panhandle. But they are moving into an area of much
higher surface based CAPE, so we expect some regeneration.
Meanwhile, additional storms are in the process of developing in
western Kansas, which may evolve into the main show tonight. And
now the last few runs of the HRRR have also been signaling the
possibility of storms in the southwest this evening as well. Will
not get too tricky on timing but have kept broad high POPs across
much of the area, and expanded them farther south with the HRRR
trends. Meanwhile, it appears we will remain in a relatively
active pattern with west-northwest flow aloft and waves moving
into the upper Midwest and the northern and central Plains.
Highest rain chances will be northeast, while still generally
drier and warmer southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  85  71  85 /  80  60  60  60
Hobart OK         72  89  73  89 /  50  30  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  75  97  76  95 /  30  20  20  40
Gage OK           67  81  68  83 /  70  30  60  60
Ponca City OK     69  84  69  83 /  80  60  40  50
Durant OK         74  95  74  90 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/09/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across
mainly northwest Oklahoma, with Slight and Marginal Risks
covering the rest of the state and a small part of north
Texas.

Location...
The Enhanced Risk covers locations north and west of a line
extending from Sayre and Elk City, to El Reno, to Enid and
Cherokee. This includes the cities of Woodward, Alva, Enid,
Clinton, and Weatherford.

A Slight Risk covers locations farther south and east and covers
locations north of Mangum and Hobart, Purcell and Wetumka. The
Marginal Risk covers locations near and north of Quanah and
Wichita Falls, Texas, eastward along the Red River.

Timing...
There could be two rounds of potentially severe weather. The first
will be from 1 pm to 6 pm primarily in the Enhanced Risk area. The
second round, and more intense storms, are expected in the 7 pm to
4 am timeframe in the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas. Primary storm
movement will be from northwest to southeast.

Impacts...
Golfball size hail and damaging winds to 65 mph will be the main
concern with the storms this afternoon and early evening. Smaller
hail and winds to 75 mph will be the concerns later in the evening
and overnight. High rain totals, which could lead to flooding and
flash flooding, will be a concern this evening and overnight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
evening into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Heavy Rain/Flooding...
Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across the area
Friday through early next week. Several inches of rainfall may
occur across parts of Oklahoma which may result in flooding.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible each day. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible at times, but
widespread significant severe weather is not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

BRB/11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
604 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

OKZ025-102330-
Oklahoma OK-
604 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Oklahoma County
Until 630 PM CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over northwestern
Oklahoma City, just northeast of Warr Acres. moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3572 9744 3546 9735 3547 9766 3559 9768
      3561 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 254DEG 8KT 3555 9760

..speg.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
612 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             4 SW EL RENO            35.49N 98.01W
08/10/2017  E1.75 INCH       CANADIAN           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT EL RENO AIRPORT

&&

OUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
624 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

OKZ008-110000-
Kay OK-
624 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Kay County Until 700
PM CDT...

AT 623 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Chilocco,
moving east-southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3698 9675 3679 9683 3694 9718 3700 9716
      3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 288DEG 17KT 3700 9706

..speg.

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