Severe Thunderstorm Warning 768, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
229 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Will keep this short as strong storms are already ongoing. In the
broad sense, it is likely that we will experience a couple of
rounds of thunderstorms today and overnight. But the specifics are
still a little in question. The current storms in northwest
Oklahoma have lost a little punch as they moved in from the
Oklahoma panhandle. But they are moving into an area of much
higher surface based CAPE, so we expect some regeneration.
Meanwhile, additional storms are in the process of developing in
western Kansas, which may evolve into the main show tonight. And
now the last few runs of the HRRR have also been signaling the
possibility of storms in the southwest this evening as well. Will
not get too tricky on timing but have kept broad high POPs across
much of the area, and expanded them farther south with the HRRR
trends. Meanwhile, it appears we will remain in a relatively
active pattern with west-northwest flow aloft and waves moving
into the upper Midwest and the northern and central Plains.
Highest rain chances will be northeast, while still generally
drier and warmer southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  85  71  85 /  80  60  60  60
Hobart OK         72  89  73  89 /  50  30  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  75  97  76  95 /  30  20  20  40
Gage OK           67  81  68  83 /  70  30  60  60
Ponca City OK     69  84  69  83 /  80  60  40  50
Durant OK         74  95  74  90 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across
mainly northwest Oklahoma, with Slight and Marginal Risks
covering the rest of the state and a small part of north
Texas.

Location...
The Enhanced Risk covers locations north and west of a line
extending from Sayre and Elk City, to El Reno, to Enid and
Cherokee. This includes the cities of Woodward, Alva, Enid,
Clinton, and Weatherford.

A Slight Risk covers locations farther south and east and covers
locations north of Mangum and Hobart, Purcell and Wetumka. The
Marginal Risk covers locations near and north of Quanah and
Wichita Falls, Texas, eastward along the Red River.

Timing...
There could be two rounds of potentially severe weather. The first
will be from 1 pm to 6 pm primarily in the Enhanced Risk area. The
second round, and more intense storms, are expected in the 7 pm to
4 am timeframe in the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas. Primary storm
movement will be from northwest to southeast.

Impacts...
Golfball size hail and damaging winds to 65 mph will be the main
concern with the storms this afternoon and early evening. Smaller
hail and winds to 75 mph will be the concerns later in the evening
and overnight. High rain totals, which could lead to flooding and
flash flooding, will be a concern this evening and overnight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
evening into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Heavy Rain/Flooding...
Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across the area
Friday through early next week. Several inches of rainfall may
occur across parts of Oklahoma which may result in flooding.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible each day. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible at times, but
widespread significant severe weather is not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

BRB/11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
244 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

OKZ005-010-011-102015-
Major OK-Woodward OK-Woods OK-
244 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Major...northeastern
Woodward and southeastern Woods Counties Until 315 PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located 3 miles south of
Alabaster Caverns State Park and near Quinlan, moving southeast at
25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

LAT...LON 3662 9870 3617 9865 3641 9917 3671 9928
      3681 9913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 299DEG 21KT 3665 9915 3646 9906

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
245 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

OKZ023-102015-
Caddo OK-
245 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Caddo County Until 315
PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Fort Cobb, moving east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3492 9853 3509 9859 3522 9829 3496 9819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 252DEG 12KT 3503 9848

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
315 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

OKZ005-010-011-102045-
Major OK-Woodward OK-Woods OK-
315 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Major...east central
Woodward and southeastern Woods Counties Until 345 PM CDT...

AT 314 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles north of Waynoka to 6 miles north of Chester, moving
southeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3658 9856 3617 9860 3616 9886 3627 9899
      3674 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 307DEG 22KT 3663 9889 3631 9892

..speg.