Severe Thunderstorm Warning 715, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 00z TAFs:

VFR conditions and light east-southeast winds are likely to
prevail through the TAF period. Thunderstorms at or in the
vicinity of CSM, LAW, and HBR may result in strong wind gusts and
brief reductions in visibility from heavy rain. Thunderstorms
should diminish by late evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Given latest observation trends, we will leave the Heat
Advisory/Excessive Heat Warning going through early evening.

Well detailed meso-discussion issued with previous updated AFD
still holding to our thinking. For the OKC metro - storm chances
will be tied to the area of elevated showers moving southeast
from Enid. Added convergence associated with this activity, which
is tied to a weakening MCV from overnight convection, may allow
scattered showers and storms to develop near/over the OKC metro
and progress south and east into the early evening hours. Brief
heavy rain and strong wind gusts will be the main concerns along
with cloud to ground lightning. Two other areas of concentrated
convection we will look for will be over western north Texas into
southwest Oklahoma associated with deformation east of two MCVs
over the southern panhandle and southwest TX high plains. The
other area is south central and southeast Oklahoma where better
moisture profiles and terrain could yield more in the way of
widespread convective development late this afternoon through this
evening. DCAPE values and weak shear will be supportive of
localized damaging wind gusts with the deeper/more persistent
cores.

Heights quickly build Monday and Tuesday which will allow
temperatures to rise back well above average. Moisture will not be
going anywhere as well, so heat indices will once again yield
likelihood for heat advisory/excessive heat warnings across the
area by mid-week. Models still indicating another respectable
trough to progress around upper ridge and push another weak front
into the region Thursday-Friday. Along with taking the edge off
the heat, the front will also yield scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  74  96  74 /  40  20  20  20
Hobart OK         99  74  97  75 /  50  40  30  20
Wichita Falls TX 101  74  97  74 /  40  40  30  20
Gage OK           92  68  96  72 /  40  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     93  72  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         98  75  94  73 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-020-025-026-
     028-029-040-041-046-047-050>052.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ030>032-042-043-048.

TX...None.
&&

12/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
738 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-250045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
738 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with damaging winds up to
70 mph and locally heavy rainfall will continue tonight, mainly
before 10 pm across western and southern Oklahoma as well as all
of western north Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Heat...
After a brief dip to more seasonable temperatures, Monday and
Tuesday, temperatures from 95 to 105 degrees will return Wednesday
through the end of next week.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Monday and Monday evening
across all of western north Texas as well as the southwestern half
of Oklahoma. Gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will be
possible with any storms on Monday.

Thunderstorm chances may return late Wednesday through Saturday
across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
742 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

OKZ037-038-240115-
Tillman OK-Comanche OK-
742 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR east central Tillman and
southwestern Comanche Counties Until 815 PM CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Manitou, moving east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Tillman and southwestern Comanche Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 9896 3451 9889 3453 9862 3436 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 275DEG 15KT 3447 9882

MAHALE

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