Severe Thunderstorm Warning 651, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The July 5-6, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across north
Texas and adjacent parts of southern Oklahoma late this
evening/overnight. Highest confidence of showers/storms is south
of a line from KCSM/KHBR to KLAW. Opted not to include TSRA at
KOKC/KOUN, where the probability is lower. Gusty, variable winds
and reduced visibility will be possible within any thunderstorms.

Otherwise, light and somewhat variable winds will continue;
however, the predominant directions will be from the northeast,
east or southeast through period.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High-based showers are moving southeast through central Oklahoma.
Much of this is virga, but there is some light rain reaching the
ground at times. The main weather for tonight though is likely
beginning to develop in the northwest Texas panhandle and
northeast New Mexico. There has been a consistent signal today in
the HRRR and other models of storms developing here, becoming a
complex and moving southeast through the southwestern portion of
the forecast area. The unclear thing about these storms is how far
north storms will be in the area. Additional showers and storms
are progged to develop along an east-west line across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas, although different CAM runs have placed
this development at various latitudes. Regardless, the highest
POPs tonight will be in the southern part of the area, and
generally later this evening.

The upper trough from Illinois into southwest Missouri or
northeast Oklahoma finally wanders farther east tomorrow and
leaves the area in northwest/northerly upper-level flow between
this exiting trough and the building ridge in the west. We
maintain some low POPs for the next couple of days before the
ridge builds in a little stronger. In the longer term, one big
difference in the models is the degree of the warming trend toward
early next week. GFS low-level temperatures increase the heat
significantly more than the ECMWF early next week, mainly in the
west. Brought high temperatures a little higher than the model
blend given the building ridge and the fact that it is July.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  88  69  91 /  50  30  10   0
Hobart OK         69  90  70  92 /  50  30  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  71  93 /  60  40  20  10
Gage OK           67  90  68  94 /  30  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     65  87  68  91 /  20  10  10   0
Durant OK         71  88  70  90 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/10/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1148 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening and
overnight across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas,
generally south of a line from Erick to Lawton to Pauls Valley to
Coalgate. Wind gusts of 60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters,
and torrential rainfall will be the primary threats.

.Heavy rainfall...
Heavy rainfall may lead to areas of flooding this evening and
overnight across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be at least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day
across parts of Oklahoma and north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
711 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

TXZ087-050030-
Knox TX-
711 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Knox County Until
730 PM CDT...

AT 709 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Weinert, moving
north at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Munday, Goree and Rhineland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9976 3361 9974 3358 9947 3340 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 193DEG 16KT 3338 9965

WR