Severe Thunderstorm Warning 639, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
558 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The July 4-5, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Severe thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma are expected to
consolidate into a complex and shift southeastward through this
evening into the early morning hours. Very gusty winds (>50 knots
in the strongest storms), hail, and reduced visibility will be
possible as the complex passes by from northwest to southeast. A
period of MVFR conditions will be possible behind the complex,
though confidence is too low to include in TAFS.

Otherwise, expect somewhat variable winds behind the complex to
become predominantly southerly by tomorrow morning. Additional
thunderstorms could develop tomorrow afternoon, but the
probability of affecting a given terminal is too low to include
in the TAFs.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
As discussed with the update earlier, there is a strong signal for
a convective complex developing this afternoon northwest, and
sweeping southeast through the area this afternoon through early
Tuesday morning. And with this is the high probability of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall, and will explicitly mention these
possibilities in the zones tonight. With this evolution now
expected, this shifts the focus for storms tomorrow more to the
south closer to any remnant surface boundary, although a lot will
depend on what specifically happens overnight.

The base of the upper trough across the Midwest is progged to
continue to poke into Oklahoma Wednesday which could help support
scattered thunderstorms. Upper ridge strengthens in the Rockies
and the High Plains later this week which will reduce
precipitation chances Thursday and Friday, but then we will start
again with precipitation chances of late storms moving off the
central High Plains into northeastern sections of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  89  70  88 /  70  30  40  30
Hobart OK         70  92  71  91 /  70  20  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  92  73  91 /  60  30  40  30
Gage OK           65  91  67  92 /  70  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     69  84  68  88 /  70  30  30  20
Durant OK         73  88  72  88 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

03/10/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
401 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-042115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
401 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight across parts of central and western Oklahoma and a
small part of western north Texas.

.Location...
The Enhanced risk encompasses an area from from Freedom and
Cherokee, to Guthrie, to Norman, to Duncan, Electra and Quanah
Texas, to Hollis, Arnett and Fort Supply. A Slight risk surrounds
the Enhanced risk and includes areas north of a line from Calvin,
to Marietta Oklahoma to Henrietta, Seymour and Benjamin Texas. A
Marginal risk includes the remainder of southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

.Timing...
Through 1 am.

.Impacts...
Winds up to 80 mph.
Hail up to the size of Tennis balls. Flooding rain.

.Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across
many parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas. A few of these
storms may approach severe levels with small hail and gusty
winds, as well as brief heavy rain.

Otherwise, a more organized area of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop across southwest Kansas into far northwest
Oklahoma. This complex of storms is then expected to move east and
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours, impacting
much of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Damaging straight line
winds will be the main threat, with large hail and heavy rainfall
also possible, especially across the enhanced and slight risk
areas.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and evening.

.Heavy rain...
Torrential rain will be likely with many of the storms through
tonight. Flooding may occur in areas with poor drainage, or where
heavy rain fell on Sunday or Sunday night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of thunderstorms each day except Friday.
Severe storms will be possible over northern and central Oklahoma
Tuesday and Wednesday.

.Heavy rain...
Flooding will be possible again Tuesday and Wednesday across
northern and central Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
905 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

OKZ021-022-033>038-040230-
Harmon OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Washita OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-
Comanche OK-Jackson OK-
905 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Harmon...Kiowa...northwestern
Tillman...southwestern Washita...Beckham...Greer...west central
Comanche and central Jackson Counties Until 930 PM CDT...

AT 902 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles northwest of Cooperton to near Granite to 8 miles south of
Texola, moving south at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Lawton, Altus, Sayre, Hobart, Mangum, Hollis, Cache,
Granite, Snyder, Erick, Sentinel, Blair, Lone Wolf, Mountain Park,
Indiahoma, Carter, Roosevelt, Martha, Willow and Gould.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 10000 3508 9895 3484 9891 3462 9846
      3453 9931 3472 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 3DEG 24KT 3491 9890 3493 9938 3509 10002

MAHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
909 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW EDMOND            35.64N 97.51W
07/03/2017  M68 MPH          OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

&&

JP