Severe Thunderstorm Warning 550, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
213 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall potential over the next few
days, particularly today, are the main concerns.

Before 7 am this morning, some severe thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall will affect parts of northern Oklahoma, mainly north of a
Gage to Stillwater line. A bow with widespread damaging winds
will affect the Medford and Ponca City areas now through 330 am.
Additional storms, mainly elevated, may form west of this bow and
possibly produce another round of damaging wind gusts, marginally
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall in the 3 to 7 am time
frame across northern Oklahoma. Confidence in this additional
round of storms remains low. South of the line mentioned above,
the cap should be too strong for storm formation.

Between 7 am and 4 pm today, overall, think storm potential will
remain low. Lingering weakening storms may continue over northern
Oklahoma where the cap will be weakest (700 mb temperatures below
+14C). Otherwise, think the cap will be strong for storm
formation. A surface outflow boundary/effective surface cold
front will push southward, across Oklahoma. Not exactly sure
where this outflow boundary/effective surface cold front will be
located at this afternoon. Highs today should vary greatly from
the 80s in northern Oklahoma due to more clouds and low level cold
air from storms early this morning to triple digit heat in far
western north Texas. Surface dewpoints will likely increase and
pool near and just south of the outflow boundary/effective front,
possibly into the mid and upper 70s. Resulting heat indices may
approach 105 degrees in parts of southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas this afternoon and early evening, but not confident
enough to issue a Heat Advisory at this time.

Between 4 pm this afternoon and midnight tonight, severe potential
with heavy rainfall will increase across the area due to a
weakening cap, rather high instability (MUCAPE 2000-5000 J/kg),
and abundant moisture, though not sure how convection will
evolve. Best guess is that isolated to numerous showers and storms
will form 4 to 7 pm near the outflow boundary/effective cold
front which will likely be oriented southwest to northeast
somewhere across Oklahoma and possibly western north Texas. Most
short term models (particularly RAP13 and HRRR runs) have been
depicting this boundary near I-44 around 6 pm Friday evening.
First storms may be supercellular due to sufficient shear (0-6 km
shear 30-45 kt) especially if this boundary is near or north of
I-44 (where 500 mb winds are unseasonably strong 30-50 kt) capable
of large hail as the main hazard, then likely congeal into a line
or clusters as they move southeast this evening producing
damaging winds as the main hazard. Tornado risk remains very low
at this time, though non-zero due to abundant low level moisture
which may keep LCLs below 5000 ft AGL as well as the possibility
that low level shear values may be enhanced near the surface
outflow boundary/effective cold front.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are additional concerns with
storms late this afternoon and tonight with precipitable water
values forecast to be 1.8-2.2" near and south of the outflow
boundary/surface cold front. This would support rainfall rates of
2-5"/hr. For now, especially due to recent dry conditions, will
not issue a Flash Flood Watch.

After midnight Friday night, storms should generally weaken and
mainly be confined to southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Saturday appears to be have slightly lower severe thunderstorm and
lower heavy rainfall potential, especially as 700 mb temperatures
are forecast to rise which would increase capping and inhibit
most convection. Still, most models depicted rather high amounts
of moisture and instability, especially over the southern half of
Oklahoma and/or north Texas where a surface boundary may linger.
Temperatures are forecast to slightly be below average, though
surface dewpoints may be quite high (in the 70s) across a large
part of Oklahoma and north Texas.

Saturday night into early Sunday, most models have been depicting
that elevated storms with heavy rainfall as the main hazard may
form north of the surface boundary, mainly north of the Red River.
Some of these storms could be strong to severe as well.

Sunday afternoon appears to be mainly hot and humid with very low
chances of rain with capping becoming stronger across much of
Oklahoma and north Texas.

Sunday night through Thursday, overall, hot and humid weather can
be expected with low chances for rain most days. Pinpointing where
and rain occurs remains challenging. Does not appear widespread
rainfall will occur during this time frame. A weak mid/upper
trough may enhance lift and allow for slightly higher rain chances
Monday and Tuesday compared to Wednesday and Thursday when
mid/upper ridging from the west occurs according to latest models.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  68  87  71 /  40  50  20  40
Hobart OK         95  69  89  71 /  20  50  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  98  69  89  73 /  20  50  20  20
Gage OK           85  63  88  68 /  20  20  10  40
Ponca City OK     84  66  87  68 /  40  40  10  30
Durant OK         93  71  89  73 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/17

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1018 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301300-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1018 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe storms overnight across far
northern Oklahoma.

Location...
The Enhanced Risk covers an area along and north of a line from
Perry to Okeene to Fort Supply to Laverne. A Slight Risk extends
north of a line from Catesby to Hitchcock to Luther to Chandler to
the Enhanced Risk. A Marginal Risk covers and area north of a
line from near Wetumka to Oklahoma City to Camargo to Shattuck up
to the Slight Risk.

Timing...
After 11 PM.

Impacts...
Winds of 70 mph and golf ball size hail.

Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across portions
of southwestern Kansas late this evening, gradually developing
into a cluster or complex of storms, along with additional
development, across far northwestern Oklahoma overnight. This
complex of storms will build eastward across northern Oklahoma
through the early morning hours. Damaging winds up to 70 mph and
hail to the size of golf balls is possible. As the storms form
more into a line, the damaging wind risk could become the more
pressing concern.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk areas should be prepared for severe weather operations
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday....

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms, along with high rain totals, are possible
Friday through Saturday night. A Slight Risk covers much of
northern and central Oklahoma Friday and Friday night, with a
Marginal Risk covering much of the region Saturday and Saturday
night. The primary concerns will be large and damaging hail along
with the potential for excessive rain.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible Sunday
through next Tuesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
129 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW CHEROKEE          36.74N 98.36W
06/30/2017  M62 MPH          ALFALFA            OK   MESONET

&&

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

OKZ007-008-012-013-019-300745-
Garfield OK-Logan OK-Kay OK-Grant OK-Noble OK-
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Garfield...northwestern Logan...
southwestern Kay...southeastern Grant and Noble Counties Until 245 AM
CDT...

AT 144 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest
of Kremlin, moving east at 50 MPH. Strong wind gusts with this storm
may occur well ahead of the rainfall.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Enid, Perry, Waukomis, Garber, Lahoma, Covington, Billings, Red Rock,
Marshall, Kremlin, Breckenridge, Mulhall, Marland, Hunter, Orlando,
Fairmont, Hillsdale, Carrier, Douglas and Vance Air Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 9705 3616 9732 3616 9735 3611 9735
      3602 9741 3639 9810 3663 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 277DEG 44KT 3651 9790

03

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