Severe Thunderstorm Warning 507, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The June 15-16, 2017 12 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Light southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty
later this morning. This afternoon, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop along a dryline across northwest
Oklahoma this afternoon. These thunderstorms could impact KWWR,
KGAG, and KCSM between 22-02 UTC; however, the probability
affecting a given terminal are too low to include in the TAFs.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas.
These thunderstorms may coalesce into a complex of thunderstorms
that would move southeastward this evening. Greatest confidence
for impacts from the thunderstorms are across north central
Oklahoma, including KPNC. There is a lower chance, but these
storms may shift southward into central Oklahoma, impacting KOKC
and KOUN this evening. Any thunderstorms could be severe with the
threat of strong wind gusts, hail, and temporary restrictions in
visibility. Within any complex of storms, surface winds may
abruptly change direction to the north/northwest in association
with the leading gust front.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is the chance of showers/storms this
evening.

For this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along
the dryline across the Texas panhandle. These storms could affect
western north Texas and adjacent parts of western Oklahoma late
afternoon/early evening. There is higher confidence that scattered
thunderstorms will develop across Kansas and perhaps far
northwest Oklahoma late afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough
provides ascent for convection.

These thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale into a mesoscale
convective complex (MCS) that will propagate south-southeastward
toward higher low-level theta-e air this evening. Sufficient
elevated instability (MUCAPE >= 3000 J/kg) should allow the
complex to propagate into northern Oklahoma with a continued
threat of damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall.

There is still some uncertainty on the southwestern extent of the
MCS track, but the consensus of convective-allowing models and
parameterized models indicate a continued westward shift from the
previous days' runs. The 15/00Z 3 KM NAM is very similar to
yesterday evening's run with the MCS affecting central Oklahoma
mid to late evening. Therefore, opted to increase the chance of
showers/storms north and east of a line from Alva, Oklahoma to
Oklahoma City to Shawnee.

For Friday and Saturday, a strengthening cap is expected as mid-
level temperatures warm (700 mb temperatures are progged to be
14-16C at 00Z Sat) and heights rise. This should preclude any
substantial deep, moist convection. Hot temperatures are expected
with Saturday still forecast to be the hottest day so far this
year. 850 mb temperatures are still progged to range from 25-31C
across the area, which should result in high temperatures in the
mid-90Fs to low 100Fs.

As a mid/upper-level trough amplifies across the Great Lakes, an
attendant cold front is expected to shift south Sunday with
cooler, near average temperatures in its wake. Showers/storms
will be possible along and perhaps behind the cold front. The
highest chance will be across southeast Oklahoma Sunday night.

Hot weather (with above-average temperatures) is expected to
return by the middle part of the week as the mid-level ridge
expands eastward into the Southern Plains.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  69  96  75 /  20  50   0   0
Hobart OK         97  69  98  75 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  97  72  98  76 /  10  20   0   0
Gage OK           98  66  97  70 /  30  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     96  68  95  75 /  30  60   0  10
Durant OK         94  73  96  75 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

03/10/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
817 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161330-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
817 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorm Outlook...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of northern Oklahoma. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms across much of central and western Oklahoma and far
western north Texas.

Location...
the enhanced risk is located along and north of a line from
Buffalo to Woodward to Waukomis to north of Stillwater. A slight
risk surrounds the enhanced risk and is located north of a line
from Crowell, Texas to Elmer to near Fort Cobb to Purcell and
Holdenville, Oklahoma.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe weather will be from 4 PM to 1
AM.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of tennis balls and wind gusts over 70 mph
will be possible.

Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon across portions of northern Oklahoma, and perhaps
southwestern Oklahoma, and then move south southeast. Large hail
will be possible with these storms mainly before 10 PM. A complex
of storms may then progress southward over portions of central
Oklahoma during the overnight hours. If a complex does develop,
damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of golf balls, and
locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards after sunset.

.Heat...
Widespread heat indices from around 100 to 105 degrees are
expected late this afternoon. Be sure to drink plenty of water
and take frequent breaks when working or playing outside.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will return Saturday night across
northeastern Oklahoma, and continue Sunday into Monday across much
of Oklahoma and western north Texas. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible.

.Heat...
Widespread heat indices from around 101 to 108 degrees are
expected late Saturday afternoon. Be sure to drink plenty of
water and take frequent breaks when working or playing outside.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
838 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

OKZ026-151400-
Lincoln OK-
838 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Lincoln County Until 900
AM CDT...

AT 834 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Davenport,
moving southeast at 15 MPH. Another strong storm was between
Chandler and Tryon.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Chandler, Stroud, Davenport, Carney, Sparks, Warwick and Kendrick.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 162 and 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 9665 3559 9693 3586 9706 3579 9663
      3577 9662 3552 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 334DEG 15KT 3570 9670

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