Severe Thunderstorm Warning 505, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1027 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected.

Chances of SHRA/TSRA remain too low to include at any TAF site in
the next 24 hours. Brief MVFR conditions or lower along with
variable gusty surface winds would be possible with any SHRA/TSRA.

Patches of MVFR conditions may occur at many sites 09-18 UTC.

Surface winds will remain gusty at some sites. A weak surface
front will bring a wind shift to the north across northwestern
Oklahoma sometime after 13 UTC. Otherwise, a mainly southerly
surface wind can be expected.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 843 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

UPDATE...
Adjusted rain chances this evening, mainly to lower them slightly
across western Oklahoma and far western north Texas. Added 20%
chances of showers and thunderstorms north of I-40 after midnight
tonight. Made small adjustments to hourly elements tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is quickly winding down tonight. Warm and muggy
conditions will continue tonight.

Showers and storms have overall been weakening across far western
Oklahoma over the past hour due to the loss of daytime heating as
well as the storms moving east into an area with stronger capping
with higher amounts of MLCIN. Think this trend will generally
continue this evening, though cannot rule out a stray
strong/severe storm with hail/gusty winds for the next few hours
in far western Oklahoma.

After midnight tonight, added 20% chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the northern half of Oklahoma as latest HRRR
and NAM12 runs have been depicting some possible redevelopment of
elevated storms in these areas, possibly due to an increasing low
level jet. If these storms do occur, chances of severe remain
low, though small hail, gusty winds, and brief downpours could
be possible. Not confident this storm development will occur.

Products will be updated shortly.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concern for this forecast is the chance for thunderstorms
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight. There's a
consistent signal for convection developing along the dryline in
the panhandles. The questions are how extensive the coverage will
be, how far north the line will stretch where instability starts
to drop off, and how far east the line will make it. Most of the
CAMs have storms dying off within one to two counties of the
Oklahoma Texas border, so while coverage may initially be fairly
extensive, it is expected to drop off pretty quickly upon entering
our CWA. There is a potential for severe hail and winds with some
of these storms.

Beyond tonight, a upper level ridge slowly builds into the area,
keeping rain chances down and allowing temperatures to rise. By
Friday and Saturday, western Oklahoma will likely see some 100s. Most
days maintain a slight chance for rain across some portion of the
area as a few shortwaves make their way through the area.

Sunday, a cold front is set to come through bringing cooler
temperatures and a better chance for rain.

Day

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

17

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1036 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-150345-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1036 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Some thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of western
and northern Oklahoma. Although widespread severe storms are not
expected tonight, a few severe thunderstorms with large hail as
the main hazard remain possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Low chances of thunderstorms will spread eastward across central
and northern Oklahoma Wednesday through late Friday. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will remain possible along with the threat of
locally heavy rainfall.

Low thunderstorm chances will then return to much of Oklahoma
Saturday night through Monday as a cold front enters the state.
A few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz/MBS

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