Severe Thunderstorm Warning 401, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.AVIATION...
19/06Z TAFs. MVFR cigs expected to expand once again late tonight
and last through at least 18Z many locations. IFR conditions
possible across far northwest Oklahoma terminals near and in post
frontal regime. Storms first 4 to 6 hours of forecast expected to
stay isolated enough to not mention in forecast and may stay
between KOKC and KPNC and will be monitored. Prevailing
thunderstorms expected latter part of forecast period as cold
front makes its move south and convection increases in coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

UPDATE...
Mesoscale update is below.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening mainly southeast
of I-44 and north of I-40.

Tornadoes remain possible this evening mainly with the ongoing
storms near and southeast of a Seymour Texas to Wichita Falls to
Walters to Purcell to Shawnee line where the air is most unstable
with MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/kg. Northwest of this line, the tornado
threat is lower due to cooler and more stable air from earlier
storms. Believe the tornado threat will slowly decrease after 8 pm
and be very low after midnight across the entire area.

Think storms will continue to move east over the next several
hours and affect locations mentioned in the top sentence. Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible with any storm. Severe
potential should decrease in most locations after 10 pm this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Heavy rainfall is another concern tonight. The complex of storms
from Wichita Falls to Walters will slowly move east over the next
few hours and produce very heavy rainfall as well as possible
localized flooding. There is some potential that new elevated storms,
mainly below severe limits, form later tonight somewhere across
the western two thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Pinpointing where and when this development occurs remain very
challenging.

Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

MBS

AVIATION...
Have low confidence in the TAFs.

Pinpointing when and where TSRA occurs remains very challenging.
Only kept mention before 03 UTC at some sites, mainly near KSPS,
KLAW, KOKC, KOUN, and KPNC. After 03 UTC, ISO-NUM TSRA may occur
across the area, but did not mention in the TAFs due to much
uncertainty on when and where TSRA occurs.

Generally, VFR conditions are forecast to become MVFR at most
sites 06-12 UTC. IFR conditions are possible as well, but only
mentioned these conditions near KWWR and KGAG where confidence of
occurrence is moderate 11-15 UTC. A slow improvement in conditions
can be expected after 15 UTC.

MBS

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ005>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  71  50  75 /  90  20  10   0
Hobart OK         53  73  49  77 /  70  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  58  76  53  80 /  80  20  10   0
Gage OK           47  69  46  77 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     54  69  48  74 /  80  10  10   0
Durant OK         66  76  55  79 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ005>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

26/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
828 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
828 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening
in parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Location...
The Enhanced Risk area is east of a Seymour, Texas to Lawton to
Watonga to Cherokee line. Slight and Marginal Risk areas surround
the Enhanced Risk area across western Oklahoma and far western
north Texas.

Timing...
Mainly before midnight tonight.

Impacts...
Hail up to golf ball size...
Damaging winds 70 to 80 mph...
Tornadoes...

Discussion...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect parts
of central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas through
at least the evening hours. Additional isolated to scattered
storms will continue to affect northern Oklahoma this evening.
Due to sufficient shear, moisture, and instability, these storms
have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds.

A low tornado potential will continue across parts of western
north Texas and southern Oklahoma before midnight tonight where
the air remains most unstable. Tornado potential is expected to
decrease throughout the night tonight.

After midnight tonight, thunderstorms may continue across parts
of the area, though most storms are expected to remain below
severe limits as instability decreases.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
western and central Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas
should prepare for severe weather operations through midnight
tonight.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding may occur with storms
through tonight, especially near and southeast of I-44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night when tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are
all possible.

Weak thunderstorms may continue on Saturday mainly southeast
of I-44.

Thunderstorm chances will return to the area late Sunday through
Tuesday across parts of the area. A few strong storms may be
possible late Sunday through Tuesday.

.Heavy Rainfall...
There is a potential for excessive rainfall tonight until
Saturday morning, particularly over portions of central into
southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas. If
you live in an area that is prone to flash flooding, pay attention
to the forecasts and warnings later this week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

MBS/BT

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