Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION... /For the 06z TAFs/
Only minor changes were needed to the previous TAFs. Thunderstorms
will primarily be a threat for northern TAF sites although some
southward development toward OKC/OUN may be possible in the pre-
dawn hours. Some showers will redevelop later in the afternoon
from northwest Oklahoma eventually extending into central
Oklahoma. Ceilings will gradually improve throughout the day, but
gusty north winds and MVFR/IFR ceilings immediately behind the
front later tonight through the morning can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 853 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/

UPDATE...
Showers/storms continue to develop in SW KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles. This activity is expected to affect NW portions of
the fa over the next couple of hours. Showers/storms are expected
to increase and spread east as more lift associated with a
shortwave moves into the area. Warm front extends from SW into
Central portions of OK right now. Current thoughts are that the
highest chances for showers/storms this evening into the overnight
hours will remain north of the front so basically north of I-40.
Cold front is still expected to move across the region overnight
into Wednesday morning. Highest rain chances will shift east
Wednesday morning, with increasing chances in parts of south
central and southeast OK when the cold front interacts with some
better moisture.

Made some adjustments to the PoPs/Wx grids to confine higher
chances north of I-40. Also made adjustments to other grids to
show current trends.

Some severe storms still remain possible into the overnight hours,
primarily over portions of northern Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/

AVIATION...
03/00Z TAFs. Little change from previous iteration of aviation
forecast. Primary impacts from TSRA and IFR conditions overnight
and much of tomorrow will be over northern Oklahoma terminals.
MVFR cigs will be widespread after 09Z through at least 18Z with
some improvement thereafter. As surface cyclone intensifies and
cold front surges over terminals late tonight, strong and gusty
north winds will take over after 12Z and continue through the day
tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough moving across the Rockies this afternoon
will amplify as it approaches the southern/central Plains tonight.
Ahead of the trough, modest moisture return has occurred across
much of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Most model sounding suggest that a capping inversion will prevent
thunderstorm development through the daylight hours, however, a
storm or two may develop, especially where near surface moisture
can pool near a warm front.

Better chances for scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will begin after 2-3z as 85h-7h winds increase,
especially across the northern third of Oklahoma. Perhaps better
coverage will be in southern Kansas along and near a 7h trough
axis. Elevated instability should be sufficient for few strong to
perhaps severe storms with a risk of heavy rainfall too.

As the trough continues south and east, better chances for
scattered to widespread showers and storms will be across south
central and southeastern Oklahoma, where moisture return will
continue to increase.

Wednesday afternoon and early evening, widely scattered
showers/perhaps storms will continue to develop under partly to
mostly cloudy skies.

The trough will move east of Oklahoma late Wednesday into Thursday.
This will bring an extended period of dry weather with near
average temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  55  61  46 /  10  30  50  20
Hobart OK         82  53  63  46 /  10  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  61  71  49 /   0  10  20  10
Gage OK           78  50  60  43 /  10  80  40  10
Ponca City OK     75  51  58  44 /  10 100  60  20
Durant OK         83  61  70  47 /   0  20  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

30/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1159 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-040500-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1159 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
northern Oklahoma through early Wednesday.

Location...
The slight risk area extends north of a line from Cheyenne to
Kingfisher to Perry Oklahoma.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe thunderstorms will be through 4
AM.

Impacts...
Large hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
around 60 mph will be possible.

Discussion...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move across mainly the northern half of Oklahoma into Wednesday
morning. Some strong to severe storms will remain possible into
early Wednesday morning with large hail and damaging wind the
main concerns.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Thunderstorms that occur overnight will have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall, resulting in isolated flooding along and
north of I40.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk area should prepare for severe weather operations through
the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Wednesday, a few strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible Wednesday morning
across southeast Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1009 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

OKZ005-006-030345-
Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-
1009 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Alfalfa and east central
Woods Counties Until 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1007 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Aline, moving east at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 9811 3647 9861 3657 9866 3684 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 248DEG 40KT 3653 9855

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

OKZ013-030515-
Noble OK-
1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Noble County Until
1215 AM CDT...

AT 1152 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Red Rock,
moving east at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Red Rock and Sooner Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 9689 3656 9689 3655 9690 3655 9693
      3653 9696 3653 9699 3652 9701 3651 9701
      3651 9703 3637 9703 3637 9725 3652 9724
      3657 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 271DEG 28KT 3643 9716

11