Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
308 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Busy night and going forecast is in overall good shape. Will make
some tweaks to the weekend grids based on trends, but overall, do
not anticipate many changes.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact much
of Oklahoma and western north Texas through this morning. As the
upper low shifts slowly east today, the surface cold front will
begin to make eastward progress, shifting the heaviest precip into
eastern Oklahoma by late today. Before this occurs there will
remain the potential for additional strong to severe storms
Saturday afternoon, mainly along and east of I-35, along with
potential for flash flooding.

Some areas of light to moderate rain may persist into tonight,
but the heaviest rains should shift east of the area. However,
anticipate maintaining flood watch through 12z Sunday at this
point.

As upper low come out late tonight into Sunday morning, there
could be some light snow mix with the rain or perhaps temporarily
change over to all snow across northwest Oklahoma. Still do not
expect any snow accumulations.

Another cold, blustery day Sunday before milder weather early
next week. Models continue to amplify shortwave for mid-week with
another strong cold front for early May. After Wednesday, expect a
more tranquil period for the end of the week into the following
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  42  56  41 /  80  50  20   0
Hobart OK         56  39  55  38 /  70  50  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  43  63  42 /  70  50  10   0
Gage OK           46  35  47  35 /  70  60  50   0
Ponca City OK     58  43  51  40 /  80  60  50  10
Durant OK         78  49  62  44 /  80  70  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ023>032-040>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

12/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
425 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-300930-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
425 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the area today. The primary hazard will be large hail.

Location...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms south and east
of a line from Calvin to Tishomingo to Marietta. A Slight Risk
surrounds the Enhanced risk and is east of a line from perkins to
Norman to Duncan and Henrietta Texas. A marginal risk exists to
the west of the Slight Risk area and is east of a line from Ponca
City to Yukon to Lawton Oklahoma to Iowa Park and Seymour Texas.

Timing...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible this morning.
Additional severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

Impacts...
Large hail up to two inches in diameter is the primary threat.
There is a secondary threat of damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. A
couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms will make there way east across parts of
central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this
morning. A few of these may be severe with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the primary hazards.

Additional thunderstorm development will be possible through the
afternoon hours, mainly along and ahead of a cold front that will
move through central into eastern Oklahoma. Instability and wind
shear in the warm sector ahead of the advancing cold front will be
favorable for severe storms capable of large hail, damaging wind
gusts and possibly an isolated tornado or two.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible today and tonight.
The heaviest rainfall totals and greatest potential for flooding
are currently expected across portions of central and eastern
Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk area should prepare for severe weather operations through
the early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Chances for thunderstorms will return Tuesday night through
Wednesday night across parts of Oklahoma and north Texas. Severe
storms are not anticipated.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
440 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ017-023-291015-
Caddo OK-Blaine OK-
440 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Caddo and
southwestern Blaine Counties Until 515 AM CDT...

AT 437 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles southeast of Arapaho to 4 miles northwest of Alfalfa, moving
northeast at 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3561 9831 3531 9830 3521 9861 3581 9863
      3589 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0937Z 238DEG 43KT 3556 9889 3527 9865

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
447 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ020-026-291015-
Payne OK-Lincoln OK-
447 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Payne and northwestern Lincoln
Counties Until 515 AM CDT...

AT 446 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Stillwater to 3 miles northwest of Tryon, moving northeast at
55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3616 9682 3616 9662 3601 9662 3582 9707
      3608 9716 3625 9695 3625 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 231DEG 47KT 3606 9708 3589 9702

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
451 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ033-036-TXZ083-084-087-291015-
Harmon OK-Jackson OK-Foard TX-Knox TX-Hardeman TX-
451 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Harmon...
southwestern Jackson...Foard...western Knox and western Hardeman
Counties Until 515 AM CDT...

AT 449 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
6 miles south of Kirkland to 11 miles west of Rochester, moving
northeast at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3423 10000 3448 10000 3483 9972
      3358 9966 3339 9988 3340 9999 3383 10000
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 213DEG 38KT 3430 10009 3336 10005

..speg.