River Flood Warning 53, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
531 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs:

VFR conditions will be limited to north-central Oklahoma airports
(including PNC), but all other areas will see at least MVFR
conditions lasting for much of the day. Widespread rain is
occurring with a narrow band of enhanced rainfall rates causing
reduced visibilities roughly near/parallel Interstate 44.
Visibility reductions due to heavy rain could persist for much of
the morning near and north of I-44, mainly across southwest
Oklahoma. Ceilings may vary but should generally improve from
MVFR/IFR to VFR by this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain continues across portions of the area early this
morning. Some higher rates were observed overnight in the vicinity
of Wichita Falls and Fredrick prompting a few Flood Advisories,
but overall flooding has probably been minor based on amounts
estimated by radar and duration. Up to an inch of additional rain
will be possible today, primarily across a small section of
southwest Oklahoma where deepest moisture best aligns with
strongest ascent seen on 300-310K isentropic surfaces. This should
not cause significant flooding concerns. Current plans are to let
the Flood Watch continue for a little while longer and then as
heavier rainfall rates shift northward, we may be able to cancel
all or at least part of the watch early.

We have categorical/definite probabilities of light/moderate rain
across a fairly large area this morning from western north Texas
through southwest Oklahoma into portions of central Oklahoma.
There is enough isentropic ascent to keep light rain going through
much of the morning before gradually decreasing later this
afternoon and evening as low level flow relaxes and veers
slightly.

The large scale pattern doesn't change much through the end of the
week. Anomalous moisture will remain over the area within a band
of southwesterly flow aloft ahead of Southwest closed low. Models
handle the northeastward movement of this low up into the central
Rockies by Friday. Slight enhancement of upper jet at the base of
eastern Canada trough and some weakening on its western end as
Rockies low fills slightly may position the jet's right entrance
in a favorable position for subtle lift and additional
precipitation Thursday. There are hints of a weak shortwave trough
within the southwesterly flow aloft as well. We have raised
precipitation probabilities across western portions of the area
Thursday/Thursday night, and then spread low probabilities
eastward into central Oklahoma on Friday.

Dry weather is expected Saturday and and Sunday. There are still
consistency and agreement issued in medium range guidance that
leads to a below average confidence forecast from late Sunday
into early next week. Showers and storms should mostly stay north
of our area in Kansas Sunday/Monday considering a mean
position/amplification of mid-upper trough. ECMWF is quicker with
the lead wave and overall less amplified with the main trough,
while GFS and most of its ensembles are more amplified and thus
more aggressive with southward push of the cold front and
convective chances into our area. All models generally strengthen
upper ridging by mid week bringing an above normal but dry pattern
to the area.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  58  73  58 / 100  10  10  10
Hobart OK         64  58  70  58 / 100  30  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  68  60  73  60 /  90  30  50  50
Gage OK           64  52  67  52 /  50  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     68  56  75  55 /  70  10  10   0
Durant OK         81  64  80  61 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ035>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ083>089.

&&

03/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
455 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
455 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Heavy Rain/Flooding...
Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding across portions of northern
Texas and southwest Oklahoma today. A Flood Watch is in effect for
this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Low thunderstorm chances are expected Thursday and Friday across
portions of western Oklahoma and north Texas. Severe weather is
not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and
follow our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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