River Flood Warning 41, NWS Norman, OK

736 
WGUS44 KOUN 031120
FLWOUN
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
620 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

OKC033-032320-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170604T1241Z/
/RNDO2.2.ER.170603T0112Z.170603T1200Z.170604T0641Z.NO/
620 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
 
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
 
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Deep Red Creek near Randlett. 

* until Sunday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
  
* At  5:45 AM Saturday the stage was 23.0 feet. 
  
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
  
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
  
* Forecast...The Deep Red Creek will continue rising to near 23.1 
  feet mid Saturday morning. The Deep Red Creek will fall below flood
  stage early Sunday morning. 
  
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Valley-wide flooding of croplands...
  pastures...and local roads occurs and is accompanied by flood 
  depths up to 3 feet with swift currents.
  
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3429 9840 3418 9839 3421 9866 3442 9896
      3442 9878 3432 9865

$$

Kurtz

812 
WGUS84 KOUN 031312
FLSOUN
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
812 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

OKC033-032112-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170604T1630Z/
/RNDO2.2.ER.170603T0112Z.170603T1245Z.170604T1030Z.NO/
812 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Deep Red Creek near Randlett 
  
* until Sunday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
  
* At  7:45 AM Saturday the stage was 23.1 feet. 
  
* Moderate flooding is occurring. 
  
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
  
* Forecast...The Deep Red Creek is near crest and will begin falling 
  early Saturday afternoon. The Deep Red Creek will fall below flood 
  stage early Sunday morning. 
  
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Valley-wide flooding of croplands...
  pastures...and local roads occurs and is accompanied by flood 
  depths up to 3 feet with swift currents.
  
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3429 9840 3418 9839 3421 9866 3442 9896
      3442 9878 3432 9865

$$

007 
WGUS84 KOUN 031915
FLSOUN
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
215 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

OKC033-040315-
/O.CON.KOUN.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170604T1630Z/
/RNDO2.2.ER.170603T0112Z.170603T1245Z.170604T1030Z.NO/
215 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep Red Creek near Randlett 
  
* until Sunday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
  
* At  1:45 PM Saturday the stage was 22.7 feet. 
  
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
  
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
  
* Forecast...The Deep Red Creek has crested and will continue to 
  fall. The Deep Red Creek will fall below flood stage early Sunday 
  morning.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3429 9840 3418 9839 3421 9866 3442 9896
      3442 9878 3432 9865

$$

Mahale

125 
WGUS84 KOUN 040102
FLSOUN
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
802 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

OKC033-040902-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170604T1054Z/
/RNDO2.2.ER.170603T0112Z.170603T1245Z.170604T0454Z.NO/
802 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep Red Creek near Randlett 
  
* until late tonight...or until the warning is cancelled. 
  
* At  7:45 PM Saturday the stage was 21.5 feet. 
  
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
  
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
  
* Forecast...The Deep Red Creek has crested and will continue to 
  fall. The Deep Red Creek will fall below flood stage late Saturday 
  evening.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3429 9840 3418 9839 3421 9866 3442 9896
      3442 9878 3432 9865

$$

Mahale

802 
WGUS84 KOUN 040457
FLSOUN
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

OKC033-040527-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170604T1054Z/
/RNDO2.2.ER.170603T0112Z.170603T1245Z.170604T0411Z.NO/
1157 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Deep Red Creek near Randlett. 
  
* At 12 AM Sunday the stage was 19.7 feet.
  
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  
* Forecast: The Deep Red Creek has fallen below flood stage and is 
  forecast to continue to fall. This will be the last statement for 
  this location for this event.
  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
256 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Spatial coverage of convection continues to be the biggest forecast
challenge. This is typical when weak synoptic scale forcing and
fairly weak winds aloft occur in a very moist and modestly unstable
environment. Convective-scale processes such as MCVs and
boundaries will probably be present across some parts of the area
for much of the next couple of days. There have been some fairly
minor synoptic-scale trends in model guidance that necessitate
slightly greater coverage of higher precipitation probabilities
on Sunday. We'll detail this below. Otherwise, changes to the
forecast were relatively minor.

Latest experimental GOES-16 water vapor imagery channels clearly
show a plume of deep moisture streaming northward from the Rio
Grande Valley across Texas into Oklahoma. Checking a few GPS
precipitable water sites across north Texas shows anomalous values
around 1.90 inches which are well above the 90th percentile on
SPC's sounding climatology page using the Fort Worth site.
Persistent clouds and cool temperatures have resulted in weak
instability. With weak deep layer shear, storm intensity has been
fairly low. Heavy rain and potential localized flooding will be
the main hazard today and tonight. A similar
kinematic/thermodynamic profile is expected tomorrow and
convection will develop across the area again with a locally heavy
rain/flooding threat.

Weak mid-upper low will move slowly east across the area through
Saturday, and then deepen a little more than previous model runs
showed on Sunday. Upper flow pattern becomes northwesterly (albeit
weak) next week. Convection that initiates in the Rockies could
move southeast into at least northwestern portions of the area.
We kept the broad brush approach with precipitation chances until
we see more agreement among medium range guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  65  80  66 /  60  50  50  50
Hobart OK         75  65  81  65 /  60  50  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  75  67  83  67 / 100  60  60  50
Gage OK           76  62  78  62 /  40  40  40  40
Ponca City OK     81  64  80  65 /  20  20  50  40
Durant OK         78  67  83  68 /  60  50  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031630-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1120 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and last
into the evening and overnight across portions of the area. The
greatest chances will exist across southern and western Oklahoma
and western north Texas. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely.
However, a few thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts.

.Heavy Rainfall/Flooding...
Localized heavy rainfall amounts and flooding or flash flooding
are possible with thunderstorm activity today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday through
Wednesday across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas. Although
widespread severe storms are not expected, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms may occur, at times, through early next week.

.Heavy Rainfall/Flooding...
Localized heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible, mainly
Saturday through Sunday. Some locations may receive over two to
three inches of rainfall this weekend.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.