Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Norman, OK

361 
WWUS84 KOUN 261917
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
217 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Critical fire weather expected late this afternoon through
early this evening...

OKZ021-033-034-036-037-TXZ083>089-270100-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170327T0100Z/
Beckham-Harmon-Greer-Jackson-Tillman-Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-
Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-
217 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS... WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

* WIND...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...12 to 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURE...76 to 84 degrees.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
327 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns continue to be with regards to severe weather/fire
weather today and severe weather and heavy rain potential mid-
week.

As one system exits another approaches the southern Plains
from the west. This next compact system will move out across the
area late today and tonight. Wavelength between last one and this
one is not long and that is going to limit time for moisture
return to the area. Currently, 60 dewpoints are confined for near
the Texas gulf coast with dewpoints in the 40s well south into
southern Texas. Models have maintained that mid 50s to near 60
dewpoints will make it back into the area ahead of the main wave
later today. Current thinking is isolated to widely scattered
storms will develop along and east of the dryline, that will take
shape across western Oklahoma southward into western north texas,
by mid-afternoon, as insolation/convergence and forcing overcome
capping inversion in place. Some of the high-res convective models
suggest best location/timing would be near hwy 81 from I-40 south
between 4 and 5 pm.

Although wind fields will be favorable for rotating storms and
likely supercell thunderstorms, somewhat limited moisture return
will keep LCL heights rather high, limiting overall tornado
potential. Not to say that a tornado or two could not occur, but
large hail and some damaging winds gusts look to be the main
threats.

As the storm system moves across the Plains tonight, storms will
likely become more numerous, mainly across eastern Oklahoma. There
will be some lingering storm chances across north central and
southeast parts of the area through the night. However severe
chances will likely diminish through the late evening and
overnight period.

Another concern will be fire weather, to the west of the dryline
this afternoon across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Dry air will work into that part of the area to the west of the
dryline, allowing afternoon RH levels to drop well below 20
percent. Models appear to continue to underestimate surface winds
and with deeper mixing will likely see gusty southwest winds
develop into the area as well. Will issue a Red Flag Warning for
parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon
into early evening.

Monday should be dry and cooler as surface high pressure settles
south over the area.

By Tuesday another large storm system will be dropping into the
southern Rockies. As it does it will close off and then move
slowly east into the Plains Wednesday and Thursday. This will
provide the area will an extended period of much needed rain.
Models have shown a trend in developing instability farther north
with this system, so severe weather is a possibility, but still
think main impacts will be with heavy rainfall. Some locations by
Thursday could pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain.

Another dry period is then expected Friday into Saturday before
another large, closed low approaches by late in the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  52  70  48 /  40  30   0   0
Hobart OK         78  50  71  48 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  82  51  75  51 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           75  44  71  45 /  20  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  50  67  45 /  40  60  10   0
Durant OK         79  59  75  51 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ021-033-034-036-037.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ083>089.

&&

23/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
938 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-270245-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
938 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday mainly
east of a line from Ponca City to Enid to Watonga to Chickasha to
Ringling Oklahoma. There is a slight risk of severe storms west of
the enhanced risk and east of a line from Shattuck to Clinton to
Lawton Oklahoma to Henrietta Texas.

The timing and severity of these storms will depend on the return
of low-level humidity that was pushed to near the Texas gulf coast
by the cold front that went through today. However, sufficient
moisture is expected to return to north Texas and Oklahoma to
support severe thunderstorms developing late Sunday afternoon or
Sunday evening. Supercell thunderstorms will be possible with
hail to the size of golf balls and thunderstorm winds of 70 mph.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday
across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. Severe storms will be
possible Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly across north Texas and
southern Oklahoma.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Sunday
over western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma as dry and windy
conditions develop west of a dryline.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rain is likely across much of Oklahoma and north Texas
Tuesday through Wednesday, especially central and south-central
Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

26/25