Freeze Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus was on wind and freezing temperatures over the next few
days.

One more warm day is expected today with temperatures warming into
the 70s and 80s ahead of a strong cold front that will move across
the region today and tonight. This front will bring colder and drier
air to the area along with strong northerly winds.

First let's address the Winds: Strong north winds are expected to
develop behind the front later this afternoon across NW portions of
the fa. As the front continues to move across the region, the strong
northerly winds will spread across much of the fa. One mitigating
factor is that much of this is occurring during the nighttime hours
when it is harder to mix the strong winds aloft to the surface.
However, strong winds seem likely with 40-45 mph wind gusts
possible. A few locations may approach wind gusts as high as 50 mph
if the right conditions occur. With this in mind, will issue a wind
advisory for a good portion of the fa. Will have advisory for NW
portions of the fa from 21Z-0Z then added all but SE portions of the
fa into the advisory for 0Z to 12Z. For simplicity have everyone
going to 12Z but winds in northern portions of the advisory may
decrease enough earlier that they may need to be removed before 12Z.
There is more uncertainty as to how strong winds in SE portions of
fa will be so will leave them out of advisory for now and let later
shifts add if needed.

Now let's discuss Temperatures: The front will bring cold air to the
region which could lead to freezing temperatures in parts of NW OK
tonight into early Friday. There could be a couple of factors that
keep temperatures just above the freezing mark which are how quickly
clouds clear out and if winds are able to keep temperatures just
mixed enough that can not hit the freezing mark. Despite these
factors, CAA is strong so freezing temperatures in some parts of NW
OK seem likely so will convert freeze watch to a freeze warning. The
colder temperatures tonight along with the strong winds will likely
lead to wind chill values in the teens to 20s across the northern
half to two-thirds of the area. So despite temperatures not reaching
the freezing mark, it will still feel much colder tonight into
Friday morning across the area.

Friday afternoon temperatures will be 20-30 degrees colder than
today's highs. With lighter winds and clear skies Friday night and
Saturday morning, sub-freezing temperatures will be more likely
across most of the fa. Temperatures as low as the lower to mid 20s
will be possible across northern portions of the fa. Far SE portions
of the fa, has the most uncertainty as to whether the area will drop
to the freezing mark but with lows of 33-34 degrees possible there
could be some low-lying and sheltered areas, at least that are able
to reach 32 degrees. With this in mind will continue with the freeze
watch but add the final two counties of the CWA to it. Freezing
temperatures could also be possible across eastern portions of the
fa Saturday night into Sunday.

As for the rest of the forecast, high temperatures will warm back
into the 60s and 70s by Sunday before another cold front moves
across the area Monday cooling temperatures off again. Models show a
trough swinging across the region bringing a chance for
precipitation to parts of the fa Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  39  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  42  53  30 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           71  30  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     75  35  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         82  46  53  33 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     OKZ007-008-012-013-017>020-022>042-044>046-050.

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for OKZ004-005-009-
     010.

TX...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

30/25

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
355 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
355 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Cold...
Subfreezing temperatures will be possible across northwest
Oklahoma Thursday night and Friday morning. Most of Oklahoma and
western north Texas will see a freeze Friday night and Saturday
morning. These will be the first freezes of the season for most of
the region. Although not as widespread, subfreezing temperatures
will be possible Saturday night into Sunday morning as well.

Make sure that outdoor pets are taken care of, unhook outdoor
water hoses, cover exposed water pipes and protect all tender
vegetation. The freeze on Friday night and Saturday morning will
likely be a hard freeze.

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