Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1024 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

...Update...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We have updated near term precipitation probabilities, weather,
and other elements based on trends. 12z OUN sounding was quite
moist through 500 mb with PWAT value just under 1.5 inches.
Further southwest, low level moisture is more extensive.
GPS precipitable water values around 1.8 inches with short term
model guidance indicating slightly higher amounts. Mean flow
supports northeasterly storm motions around 10 to 15 knots, and
recent uptick in convection on the southwestern flank of morning
convective cluster has exhibited motions similar to this. So far,
backbuilding upstream/training hasn't been extensive across this
area (far southwest part of our forecast area) but we'll need to
continue to monitor for heavy amounts and flooding/flash
flooding. Some southeastward surge in convection has been noted on
the southern end of the morning complex and there may be an area
where heavy rainfall amounts and flooding are most likely between
slowly northeastward moving convection and southeastward surging
convection over the next few hours. This would be over portions
of Baylor and Knox counties, and possibly Archer County.

Further north, instantaneous rates on KFDR radar have recently
decreased in the vicinity of Wichita Falls and the Red River with
rainfall amounts near and north of Lawton into far southern
Caddo County still high enough for a localized flooding concern.
This is in addition to ongoing flooding/flash flooding in the city
of Lawton. At this time, based on trends, it appears the flooding
threat across this area of Oklahoma is expected to be more
localized.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/

AVIATION...
Some IFR conditions have developed this morning and these conditions
may linger across many of the sites for the next several hours. To
go along with this, expect to see an overall increase in thunder
from southwest toward the northeast through the morning into the
afternoon. Should see some improvement by afternoon with most TAF
sites with MVFR conditions. Most convective activity should
dissipate around or just before sunset with mainly VFR conditions.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will continue to deal with weak shortwave trough over the area
today. Wind shear will be weak, but enough instability will be
present for at least a few strong storms to occur. As the storms
will be slow-moving, heavy rainfall will be the main impact and
some localized flooding is possible. Strong wind gusts and some
small hail will also be possible.

By Saturday afternoon into the first part of Sunday, we see a bit
better organized trough that will move southeast across the area.
This may result in more widespread activity, and activity that
lingers through the overnight period Saturday night. Again some
gusty winds and small hail may occur with the stronger storms as
well as isolated areas of flooding.

Should see a decrease in rain/storms by late Sunday as trough
finally moves southeast and ridging tries to build out into the
plains. Models continue to show northwest flow patten taking shape
next week with daily high plains convection that will make a run
east and southeast into the central and southern Plains. However,
more days than not, most locations will likely remain dry, but
will keep some low pops into at least mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  65  81  66 /  50  30  50  40
Hobart OK         78  65  83  65 /  60  40  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  78  66  83  67 / 100  40  50  50
Gage OK           81  63  82  62 /  50  30  40  40
Ponca City OK     83  65  82  65 /  20  20  40  40
Durant OK         82  68  83  68 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031630-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1120 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and last
into the evening and overnight across portions of the area. The
greatest chances will exist across southern and western Oklahoma
and western north Texas. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely.
However, a few thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts.

.Heavy Rainfall/Flooding...
Localized heavy rainfall amounts and flooding or flash flooding
are possible with thunderstorm activity today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday through
Wednesday across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas. Although
widespread severe storms are not expected, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms may occur, at times, through early next week.

.Heavy Rainfall/Flooding...
Localized heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible, mainly
Saturday through Sunday. Some locations may receive over two to
three inches of rainfall this weekend.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
859 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HAYNESVILLE             34.09N 98.92W
06/02/2017                   WICHITA            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY 240 FROM HAYNESVILLE TO 2
            MILES WEST OF HAYNESVILLE AND STATE HIGHWAY
            25 NEAR AND NORTH OF HAYNESVILLE ARE BOTH
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
900 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE OKLAUNION         34.15N 99.08W
06/02/2017                   WILBARGER          TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 370 CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER ROAD.

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W LAWTON              34.61N 98.43W
06/02/2017                   COMANCHE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY FLOODING ON MOST STREETS. SEVERAL
            VEHICLES STALLED OUT.

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW LAWTON            34.63N 98.41W
06/02/2017                   COMANCHE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER RESCUE 16TH AND LINCOLN IN LAWTON.

&&

MAD