Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
415 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly passes through the region tonight, and
stalls south of Long Island on Friday. A weak low passes east
of the region Saturday. Weak high pressure then builds south of
the region through the rest of the weekend. A slow moving weak
frontal system moves in for early next week. Its associated warm
front stays mostly south and west of the region. For mid next
week, weak high pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412 remains in effect until 9pm.

Tstms have blossomed over the cwa and will continue to do so
this eve. Extensive tstm development associated with the remnant
mcv across ern PA will aid in development from NJ to LI.

Wind damage has been reported, and this will remain the primary
threat thru this eve.

The backdoor front was thru KIJD and into New London county at
4pm. Expect activity to become elevated in time ne of this
front.

As tstms continue to redevelop over some of the same areas, the
flash flood threat will increase. Some of the modelling does
continue to develop this pcpn overnight, so the watch goes to
Fri mrng.

The heat index was still 101 at KJFK at 4pm. The heat advy
remains in effect for nern NJ and NYC until 6pm, at which point
tstms should begin cooling the area ahead of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface based instability appears limited thru the period per
the 12Z modeling. There is the suggestion of some elevated
instability Fri ngt. As a result, the fcst for now carries only
shwrs for Fri, and included tstms Fri ngt. The setup should
become clearer overnight as the position of the front becomes
better established. A blend of the guidance was used for temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall, persistent very warm and humid weather will continue from
this weekend into the middle of next week. There will be chances of
showers and thunderstorms, particularly, early Saturday, Monday into
Monday evening, as well as Tuesday afternoon. These time periods are
when forecast chances of showers and thunderstorms are relatively
higher. The rainfall forecast from the forecast models coincides
with generation of instability, therefore thunderstorms were
included in the forecast. However again these are just chances, with
likewise, coverage expected to be at most scattered.

Highest PVA traverses early Saturday and Tuesday as diagnosed from
model projections of 500mb vorticity. The amplitude of the Tuesday
trough is higher than the one moving across early Saturday.

The right rear quad of the upper level jet is close to the region
early Saturday. The ECMWF and Canadian convey left front quad of
upper level jet being near the region Monday. Magnitudes of the jet
are less than shown for Saturday.

At the surface, a weak low passes east of the region Saturday. Weak
high pressure follows for the remainder of the weekend but will be
building mainly south of the region. A slow moving frontal system
approaches Sunday night and moves into the region early next week.
Prolonged light onshore flow is shown by the models. The associated
warm front looks to stay mostly south and west of the area. The slow
moving trough of low pressure associated with the weak system will
move east of the region for middle of next week, giving way to weak
high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary will drop south across the area this
afternoon and evening, and remain near the terminals through
the TAF period.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along the frontal boundary
as a wave of low pressure travels along it. VFR in many places,
however cigs will fall to MVFR in showers and thunderstorms. Any
storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Best timing for showers and thunderstorms in NYC will
once again be between 20z-00z.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible after 00z,
however confidence is not high in exactly where they will be, so
included VCSH thereafter.

Winds which are from the Southwest to west will gradually veer
to the north, then eventually to the northeast by 03-05z. Winds
should then remain from the northeast to east from 05z through
the end of the period.

With a Northeast flow and the front over the area, expect IFR
conditions to develop, mainly in stratus. Fog is also expected,
however unsure just how low visibilities will get.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely to fine tune timing for
showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce
gusts of 30-40kt. Amendments may also be needed for timing of
wind direction changes as the frontal boundary approaches.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely to fine tune timing for
showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce
gusts of 30-40kt. Amendments may also be needed for timing of
wind direction changes as the frontal boundary approaches.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely to fine tune timing for
showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce
gusts of 30-40kt. Amendments may also be needed for timing of
wind direction changes as the frontal boundary approaches.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely to fine tune timing for
showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce
gusts of 30-40kt. Amendments may also be needed for timing of
wind direction changes as the frontal boundary approaches.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely to fine tune timing for
showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce
gusts of 30-40kt. Amendments may also be needed for timing of
wind direction changes as the frontal boundary approaches.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely to fine tune timing for
showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce
gusts of 30-40kt. Amendments may also be needed for timing of
wind direction changes as the frontal boundary approaches.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday afternoon-Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions
possible, with showers and thunderstorms likely.
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
.Monday...VFR. Late afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
north and west of the NYC terminals.
.Tuesday...Sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
In general, winds and seas will be blw sca lvls thru Fri ngt.
However, dangerous conditions can be expected invof tstms tngt.
In addition, seas will be close to 5 ft on the ocean Fri, so if
this becomes more certain a sca will be needed.

With the pressure gradient remaining weak overall this weekend into
mid next week, conditions on the waters are forecast to remain below
SCA thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1.5 to 3 inches of rain is forecast through Friday night, with
locally higher amounts possible. There is a chance for flash
flooding thru tngt. There is low chance for additional flooding
on Fri, depending on the evolution of future convective
complexes.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-104-106-
     108.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
159 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179-141800-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
159 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

There is the chance of flash flooding, including of quick responding
creeks and streams, from Friday into Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ072>075-176-178-141800-
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
159 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

There is the chance of flash flooding from Friday into Friday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-141800-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
159 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

There is a chance for strong thunderstorms on Friday, producing
gusts to gale force.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

JMC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      41.16N  73.13W
07/13/2017  M48 MPH          FAIRFIELD          CT   ASOS

&&

CJB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
417 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

CTZ005-006-132100-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-
417 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

At 417 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sherman, moving
east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  New Fairfield around 420 PM EDT.
  Brookfield around 430 PM EDT.
  Southbury and Middlebury around 500 PM EDT.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4165 7349 4164 7350 4151 7344 4151 7339
      4150 7338 4150 7332 4151 7326 4151 7316
      4152 7316 4156 7317 4156 7312 4145 7316
      4152 7353 4165 7352 4166 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 277DEG 21KT 4157 7351

NV