Gale Watch 3, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1228 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move into the area later today, followed by a
cold front tonight as a weak wave of low pressure forms to our
east. Low pressure then tracks out of the Ohio Valley on Sunday,
passing just south of the area. The low then undergoes rapid
deepening off the New England Coast Sunday night into Monday.
High pressure over the mid section of the country builds east
Monday and passes off the Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Low
pressure tracks north of the area Wednesday, sending a cold
front across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Adjusted PoP and snowfall amounts based on obs, radar
presentation and hi-res model forecasts, which have shifted NE a
little and are handling the situation better than the global
models. Most places showing only trace amts of snow attm, with
only a coating of accumulation at most overnight, but do expect
at least an inch over most of srn CT and the farthest eastern
reaches of Long Island, maybe 2 inches interior Middlesex/New
London. Snow should be over by daybreak.

Forecast low temperatures will be near climatological normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Temperatures under ptcldy skies to start will rebound quickly
into the 40s, close to 5 to 10 degrees above climatological
normals, as a warm front lifts northeastward into the forecast
area. Clouds will return in the afternoon a mid level shortwave
approaches from the west. Any dry conditions will be short-
lived, as warm/moist advection aloft leads to a slow increase
in precipitation from the west, mainly after midnight Saturday
night. Forecast attm shows precipitation initially beginning as
a freezing rain and/or sleet--but a wave forming along the
front to our east looks to pull down enough cold air to lead to
a snowier scenario across the interior both Sat night and into
the long term on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An amplifying short wave trough over the Upper Midwest tracks
east on Sunday, closing off an upper low across the Northeast
Sunday night. This leads to rapid deepening of a surface low
that tracks from the Ohio Valley Sunday morning to off the
southern New England coast Sunday night. The most explosive
deepening occurs to the east of the area and across the Gulf of
Maine on Monday. There is some discrepancy with the models in
how far south the initial low is on Sunday and then some issues
with the magnitude and eastward progression of the low on
Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF drop the low to around 968 mb
Monday night near or just east of Nova Scotia. At the same time,
high pressure will build east from the Mississippi Valley.
Thus, there is the potential for high winds on the backside of
the low late Sunday night into Monday. Right now, we are looking
at NW gusts up to 45 mph, but they could be stronger.

As for precipitation type on Sunday, preference is toward the
colder ECMWF/NAM profiles with the low slightly farther south.
This in part is likely due to better handling of the cold air
damming east of the Appalachians due to strengthening high
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. Used a blend of the 2m
NAM and ECMWF temps during the day Sunday, which keeps the
interior right around the freezing mark most of the day, or
just above late in the day into Sunday night. Vertical
temperatures profiles, particularly the preferred NAM, suggests
a prolonged period of sleet, snow, and freezing rain across
interior southern CT and the northern and western portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley. Current thinking is for 1-2 inches of
snow across these areas with about a tenth of an inch of ice.
This appears to be an advisory level event. Liquid equivalent
from the event looks to be around half inch. Snow/ice amounts
will likely need to be refined over the next day as the forecast
area resides in close proximity to the transition zone.

High pressure passes to the south on Tuesday with a clipper low
passing to the north on Wednesday. High pressure closes out the
week. Temperatures through the period will be close to or just
below seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will move northeast across the area early Saturday
morning. One low will pass north of the area Saturday afternoon
followed by a cold front Saturday evening.

Areas of light snow continue to move southeast across the area
with mainly TEMPO MVFR CIGS and VSBY at KSWF/KHPN/KISP/KBDR
until 08z and with widespread IFR thru 11z. Accumulations will
range from a dusting at NYC Metro terminals to around 2 inches
at KGON. Isolated IFR possible.

S winds 5-10 kt become SW after 12z Saturday then NW after 21z
at 5-10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Night-Sunday...MVFR or lower with rain. A wintry mix
likely at KSWF/KHPN/KBDR/KGON late Sat night into Sun AM.
.Monday...CHC Rain/Snow showers AM. Otherwise NW wind 20-25 KT
G 40 KT.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...CHC MVFR or lower with Rain/Snow showers. NW wind
15-20 KT G 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet for the time being, but expect return of SCA conditions on
the ocean by daybreak as southerly winds briefly increase behind
a warm frontal passage. SCA in effect on the ocean through Sat
night.

There is the potential for gale to storm force gusts on the
ocean waters late Sunday night into Monday as low pressure
rapidly deepens off the New England Coast. Winds diminish Monday
night, coming below 25 kt everywhere by early Tuesday morning.
25 kt winds possible once again on Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low pressure tracks south of the area on Sunday and then rapidly
deepens off New England coast Sunday night into Monday. The
area will be coming off a full moon, with a 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 ft
surge needed to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks. The
easterly flow is only about 12 hours on Sunday before shifting
around to a NW gale Sunday night. Current thinking is that water
levels will fall short of the criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MD/PW
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MD/DW
HYDROLOGY...MD/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
500 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-112200-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
500 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-112200-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
500 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GALES ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.