Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2017
Flood Watch 3, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this flood watch at Apr 4, 2017, 3:27 PM EDT for 5 counties in New Jersey; 4 counties in Connecticut; 11 counties in New York. It took effect at Apr 6, 2017, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 10 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 4, 2017, 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 6, 2017, 8:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 6, 2017, 5:33 PM EDT
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 431 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 621 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 647 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
448 WGUS61 KOKX 041927 FFAOKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 051430- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0003.170406T1200Z-170407T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon * Rainfall with an approaching system may be heavy at times through Thursday before gradually decreasing from west to east Thursday night. Thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates are possible, especially during the afternoon. Previous rainfall has led to saturated conditions, with any new rainfall expected to exacerbate already swollen rivers. * Total rainfall of around one and a half to two inches, with locally higher amounts possible with thunderstorms. In addition to the potential for river flooding, urban and small stream flooding remains possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
7 follow-up statements
779 WGUS61 KOKX 050729 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 329 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 052000- /O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0003.170406T1200Z-170407T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 329 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon * Rainfall, heavy at times, is forecast Thursday before gradually decreasing from west to east Thursday night. Thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates are also possible, especially during Thursday afternoon. Any new rainfall will exacerbate already swollen rivers and streams. * Total rainfall of around one and a half to two inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible. In addition to the potential for river flooding, urban and small stream flooding remains possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
717 WGUS61 KOKX 051545 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 1145 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 060300- /O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0003.170406T1200Z-170407T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1145 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon * Rainfall, heavy at times, is forecast Thursday before gradually decreasing from west to east Thursday night. Thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates are also possible, especially during Thursday afternoon. Any new rainfall will exacerbate already swollen rivers and streams. * Total rainfall of around one and a half to two inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible. In addition to the potential for river flooding, urban and small stream flooding remains possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
887 WGUS61 KOKX 051925 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 060900- /O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0003.170406T1200Z-170407T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon * Rainfall, heavy at times, is forecast Thursday before gradually decreasing from west to east Thursday night. Thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates are also possible, especially during Thursday afternoon. Any new rainfall will exacerbate already swollen rivers and streams. * Total rainfall of around one and a half to two inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible especially with any thunderstorms. In addition to the potential for river flooding, urban and small stream flooding remains possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
457 WGUS61 KOKX 060856 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 456 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 062200- /O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0003.170406T1200Z-170407T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 456 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Fairfield, Middlesex, New Haven, and New London Counties, In northeast New Jersey, Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Union, and Hudson Counties. In southeast New York, all of New York City, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * From 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday afternoon * Rainfall, heavy at times, through this afternoon before gradually decreasing from west to east Tonight. Thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates of at least 1 inch per hour are also possible, especially during this afternoon. Any new rainfall will exacerbate already swollen rivers and streams. * Total rainfall of around one to two inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible especially with any thunderstorms. In addition to the potential for river flooding, urban and small stream flooding remains likely. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
358 WGUS61 KOKX 061431 FFAOKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 1031 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 070000- /O.EXT.KOKX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170407T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1031 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * Until 8 PM EDT this evening * Rainfall, heavy at times, through this afternoon before gradually decreasing from west to east late this afternoon into early this evening. Thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates are also possible, especially during this afternoon. Any new rainfall will exacerbate already swollen rivers and streams. * Total rainfall of around one to two inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible especially with any thunderstorms. In addition to the potential for river flooding, urban and small stream flooding remains likely. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
795 WGUS61 KOKX 061936 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 336 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 070000- /O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170407T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 336 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * Until 8 PM EDT this evening * Rainfall, heavy at times, gradually decreasing from west to east by early this evening. Thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates are also possible. Any new rainfall will exacerbate already swollen rivers and streams. * Total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible especially with any thunderstorms. In addition to the potential for river flooding, urban and small stream flooding remains likely. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
550 WGUS61 KOKX 062133 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 533 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 062245- /O.CAN.KOKX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170407T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 533 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York has been cancelled. The widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is quickly moving east. Therefore, flooding is no longer expected and the flood watch has been cancelled. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Apr 4, 1:50 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 4, 1:50 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front remains over or just south of the region today. A
cold front will then move through tonight. Weak high pressure
settles over the Tri-State on Wednesday. Another intensifying
storm approaches from the west late Wednesday night into
Thursday evening. The low will then linger nearby into Friday
night as it slowly weakens. High pressure and milder weather
should return Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area remains just north of the warm front. Temps over SW zones
running much cooler. Updates performed based on these trends.
Latest NAM maintains entire area in the cool air to the north of
the front. Could see late day high temps being met, assuming
warm sector makes its way into NJ. Highs 60s western locales, to
upper 40s east.
Hit or miss showers expected early this afternoon. Areas of fog
as well, although more patchy across the interior.
A 500 mb shortwave and associated energy approach mid to late
this afternoon. Scattered showers are possible and a few
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. It may be difficult
to realize any surface based CAPE with the warm front struggling
to move north. However, if there are enough breaks north and
west of the city, then greater instability could be realized.
Otherwise, much of the available instability will be elevated.
Any heavier shower could produce some gusty winds and brief
heavy rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves through tonight as low pressure passes to the
north. 500 mb shortwave will pass overhead, so a few lingering
showers cannot be ruled out early in the evening. The shortwave and
front move offshore overnight, bringing a return to dry conditions.
Clouds should also gradually diminish although mostly cloudy skies
may linger across southern CT, closer to the upper shortwave. Lows
will generally be in the 40s.
Ridging builds over the region on Wednesday with weak high pressure
at the surface. With mostly sunny skies and weak flow, high
temperatures should have no problem warming well into 50s and lower
60s. The NYC/NE NJ metro may warm into the middle 60s.
Went a few degrees above guidance as they typically run a bit cool
in similar setups this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds increase Wednesday night ahead of the next system to impact
the Tri-State area. There's a chance that rain pushes in, mainly
west of the city, late at night.
Low pressure then moves in the vicinity of the eastern Great
Lakes/western PA/western NY during Thursday. This low center will
move relatively slowly as the associated 500 mb low closes off and
attempts to become stacked. Meanwhile, a low level jet around 60 kt
attempts to push a warm front into the southern zones, hampered by
the possibility of a triple point low formation over or nearby us.
Deepening moisture with PWATS increasing 1.25-1.50 inches combines
with mesoscale lift with the llj and some synoptic lift with a jet
streak aloft. This will bring rain, possibly heavy at times during
the day Thursday. Elevated instability with this lift also brings a
chance of thunder to some areas during the afternoon and evening.
Winds will increase, but right now it appears that we would fall
short of advisory-level gusts due to a strong low level inversion.
Sustained winds however may approach advisory levels right along the
coast.
Mid and upper levels then dry out somewhat during Thursday night
with lowering chances of rainfall. On Friday, the surface low to the
north will slowly drift east through northern NY/New England. There
could be some instability showers with a cold pool aloft and
potential shortwave energy passing through.
High pressure follows for the weekend into Monday. Will go with a
dry forecast for all 3 days. Have also gone above guidance for high
temps for this period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will remain just south of the area terminals
through this afternoon. A cold front will pass through this
evening.
IFR/LIFR has been persisting across the area due to vicinity of
warm front. Latest obs indicate warm front has now sagged south
of LI as a weak surface low passes south of the island. NE
winds are likely to persist through a good part of the afternoon
including KJFK. This will hold in lower flight categories in
longer before improving toward evening over Long Island.
However, areas to the west will gradual improve.
Pre-frontal trough approaches during the aftn...bringing with
it a chance for additional showers and possibly a rumble of
thunder. Best chance for thunder will be from NYC and areas
west. Coverage and confidence too low to include TEMPO in taf
attm but high enough to include VCTS. Cold front moves through
NYC terminals around 00z with VFR returning in its wake. KISP
may hang on to fog to about midnight due to linger moisture.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Low chc tstms 19-22z.
KLGA TAF Comments: Gusty winds may continue longer than
expected. Low chc tstms 19-22z.
KEWR TAF Comments: Low chc tstms 19-22z.
KTEB TAF Comments: Low chc tstms 19-22z.
KHPN TAF Comments: Low chc tstms 19-22z.
KISP TAF Comments: Fog may be last longer than expected with
visibilities below 1 mile.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...IFR in rain. E winds G 30-35 veering S late.
.Friday....VFR. Chc -SHRA MVFR. SW Wind G20 KT.
.Saturday...MVFR in light rain during the morning possible. NW
winds G20-25 KT.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
E flow continues, and SCA remains in effect for the ocean
waters, mainly due to seas. A few gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range
are possible across LI Sound, away from the front.
Fog remains in place, and issued a dense fog advisory earlier
that continues into the afternoon. Timing may need to be
updated based on location.
Ocean seas will only gradually subside tonight into Wednesday
Seas should fall below 5 ft by the afternoon. Winds will remain
below SCA levels as high pressure settles over the waters.
Expect winds to increase to gale force on the ocean Thursday with
the next storm, with a good chance of gales for at least a short
period on all of the other waters. Winds then slowly diminish during
the afternoon, however gales will still be likely on the eastern
ocean waters through the afternoon with a tighter pressure gradient.
Waves on the ocean are expected to build 10-14 ft. SCA conds then
likely for most of the waters on a SW flow Thursday night and
Friday. WNW winds and SCA conds follow for Saturday on the
ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The widespread rainfall has ended. Scattered showers/tstms
could produce local 1/4 inch rainfall through the afternoon.
Rainfall of 1.25 to as much as 2 inches, with locally higher
amounts, is possible on Thursday. The heaviest rain is expected late
Thu morning into Thu afternoon. At least minor small stream and
urban flooding will be possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There's a decent chance of widespread minor coastal flooding during
the high tide cycle late Thursday afternoon/early evening. This
would occur primarily across the south shore back bays of Western
Long Island/Queens/Brooklyn as well as areas along western Long
Island Sound. Cannot rule out parts of NY Harbor either, but
widespread coastal flooding would appear to be less likely. Flooding
could be exacerbated by runoff from heavy rain. Localized moderate
flooding could be possible as well, but primarily on the south shore
back bays of Western LI and Queens.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ330-335-
340-345-350-353-355.
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 4, 9:25 AM EDT, 6 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 925 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-051300- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 925 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet National Weather Service warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-051300- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 925 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Dense Fog Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Gales are possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 9:15 AM EDT | Marine Dense Fog Advisory | OKX | 9 hr |
Nearby
Flood Watches in New York, 2017Flood Watches in New Jersey, 2017Flood Watches in Connecticut, 2017Every flood watch in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.