Coastal Flood Statement 18, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
One cold front has passed east, and a secondary cold front will
pass tonight. High pressure will then build to our southwest
from Sunday into Monday. A cold front will move through later
Monday. High pressure will build toward the Mid Atlantic coast
Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving east on Thursday. Unsettled
will return for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
After a busy morning, with heavy rain across NYC metro, Long
Island, and far SE CT, skies have become mostly sunny on a
drying post-frontal NW flow. NW winds were gusting as high as 30
mph in/near NYC, and look to do so into this afternoon.

Bumped highs up a little, with lower 90s in urban NE NJ,
mid/upper 80s most elsewhere, and upper 70s/lower 80s out east
along the coast.

Latest beach reports indicate high surf of 5-7 ft and dangerous
rip currents across Suffolk, so a high surf advy and rip current
risk statement have been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For tonight, a secondary cold front will move across, with winds
becoming more northerly late after its passage. Dry
conditions, light winds and continued mostly clear conditions
will result in radiational cooling. A vast range of lows will be
seen, from upper 50s in rural inland sections to lower 70s in
parts of NYC per NAM MOS guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions expected on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure
builds toward the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect high temperatures
to be in the lower/mid 80s on Sunday. A weak surface cold front
will affect the local area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The
system will not have a great deal of moisture associated with
it, but cooler temperatures aloft may spark a shower or tstm
late Monday into early Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday and
Tuesday are expected to be from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure continues to build toward the area on Wednesday,
and slowly move offshore on Friday. A few showers are possible
Friday afternoon. High temperatures will start out near 80 on
Wednesday, then slowly increase to mid/upper 80s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front pushes east of the terminals today. High pressure
builds into the region tonight and Sunday.

All the precipitation has ended across the terminals. VFR for
the remainder of the TAF period. Main headline will be the gusty
winds this afternoon. West-Northwest winds will gust to 20-25
kt, with some occasional higher gusts possible until 00z or so.
Winds diminish tonight with many locations becoming light and
variable. Seabreezes are expected to develop Sunday late
morning/afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.sUNDAY afternoon-Sunday Night...VFR. Afternoon seabreezes
expected.
.Monday...VFR. Coastal Seabreezes expected.
.Tuesday...VFR. Isolated TSRA north and west of NYC.
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough ocean conditions expected into tonight, with W-SW near
shore winds gusting to 20 kt. Winds in NYC metro are gusting to
25-30 kt, so also raised SCA for NY Harbor until around sunset.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding threat has ended. See Public Information Statement for
area rainfall reports. No further hydrologic impacts expected
through the end of next week attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the
evening high tide cycles.

Less than 1 ft of surge is needed during these evening high tide
cycles for minor flooding, and in some cases less then 1/2 ft.
The expected S/SW flow is not favorable for surge, but a
background anomaly will likely be enough for minor coastal
flooding of the most vulnerable coastal locales along the south
shore bays of Western Long Island, along Jamaica Bay, and along
western Long Island Sound during this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX weather radar will be down for maintenance. The radar
should return to service some time on Mon Jun 26.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     081.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Goodman/PW
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...Goodman/PW
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
126 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-
NYZ067>075-078-079-176>179-251730-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-Northern Fairfield-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
126 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-251730-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
126 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND BUOY 44025              40.25N  73.17W
06/24/2017  M49 MPH          ANZ370             NY   BUOY

&&

TM