Alert archive / New York / Blizzard Watches in 2017

Blizzard Watch 1, NWS New York, NY

March 11, 20178 counties in New York; 4 counties in New Jersey; 4 counties in Connecticut

NWS New York, NY issued this blizzard watch at Mar 11, 2017, 3:38 PM EST for 8 counties in New York; 4 counties in New Jersey; 4 counties in Connecticut. It took effect at Mar 14, 2017, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 11, 2017, 3:38 PM EST (20:38 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 14, 2017, 12:00 AM EDT
Expired
Mar 13, 2017, 4:18 AM EDT
In force
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-03-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-03-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1643 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
119 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

677 
WWUS41 KOKX 112038
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...Potential for a Major Winter Storm Monday night into
Wednesday...

CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening.

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Westchester,
  Southern Fairfield, Southern New Haven, Middlesex, and New
  London counties.

* Hazard Types...Snow, and strong and gusty winds.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages due
  to moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Watch, which is in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening.

* Locations...Northeastern New Jersey, Orange, Putnam, Rockland,
  Northern Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and Northern New Haven
  counties.

* Hazard Types...Snow.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages.

* Winds...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph.

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.

* Visibilities...One half to one quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
034 
WWUS41 KOKX 120739
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
339 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...Potential for a Major Winter Storm Monday night into
Wednesday...

NJZ006-104-106-108-122200-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.A.0003.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
339 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded.

* Locations...Metropolitan Northeastern New Jersey.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel and potential for power outages.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-122200-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
339 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Westchester, 
  Southern Fairfield, Southern New Haven, Middlesex, and New 
  London counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel and potential for power outages.
  Damaging wind gusts possible across eastern Long Island and 
  extreme southeastern Connecticut.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph. Isolated
  gusts up to 60 mph possible across eastern Long Island and 
  extreme southeastern Connecticut.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-122200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0003.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
339 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* Locations...Northeastern New Jersey, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, 
  Northern Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and Northern New 
  Haven counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages.

* Winds...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$
777 
WWUS41 KOKX 122012
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...Major Winter Storm Monday night into Tuesday night...

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-131000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect from midnight Monday 
night to midnight EDT Tuesday night. The Winter Storm Watch is no 
longer in effect.

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches.

* Locations...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, Orange, 
Putnam, Rockland, Northern Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and 
Northern New Haven counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Temperatures...In the mid to upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

CTZ007>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-131000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Westchester, 
  Southern Fairfield, Southern New Haven, Middlesex, and New 
  London counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel and potential for power outages. 
  Damaging wind gusts possible across eastern Long Island and 
  extreme southeastern Connecticut.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$
459 
WWUS41 KOKX 130818
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...Major Winter Storm Late Tonight into Tuesday Evening...

CTZ005-006-NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ069-070-132200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Tuesday night. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, Northern 
  Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and Northern New Haven 
  counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...18 to 24 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning
  into Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late Tonight through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at times.
  Several roads may become impassable. Power outages possible.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph on
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ007>010-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-132200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-
Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Tuesday night. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Metropolitan New York City and New Jersey, Western
  Long Island, Southern Westchester, Southern Fairfield, Southern
  New Haven, Northern Middlesex, and Northern New London 
  counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions. Snow may mix
  with or change to sleet and rain across southern and eastern
  coastal areas late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 20 inches...highest amounts to the
  north and west. 

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning 
  into early Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at times.
  Several roads may become impassable. Power outages possible. 
  Damaging wind gusts possible across Long Island and coastal 
  Connecticut.

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 55 mph on
  Tuesday. Highest winds across coastal areas.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-132200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for Heavy Snow and Strong Winds, which is in effect from 
midnight tonight to midnight EDT Tuesday night. The Blizzard Watch
is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Eastern Long Island, Southern Middlesex, and 
  Southern New London counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow with possible Blizzard conditions
  Tuesday morning. Snow is expected to mix with or change to 
  sleet and rain late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. 

* Snow Accumulations...8 to 14 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel late tonight into Tuesday morning. 
  Damaging wind gusts possible.

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph on 
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures...Around 30.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-132200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

* Locations...Orange and Putnam counties in New York and Western
  Passaic County in New Jersey.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Gusty winds.

* Snow Accumulations...18 to 24 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning 
  into tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at times.
  Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on 
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures...In the lower 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this blizzard watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard watch went out at Mar 11, 1:12 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 1:12 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
112 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure builds southeast out of central Canada
through the weekend and then over the area on Monday. A strong
coastal storm is likely to impact the area Monday night into
Tuesday Night. High pressure builds in for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Deep low pressure passes across the Canadian Maritimes region,
as upper trough and shortwave energy passes across New England.

Sprawling arctic high pressure extends SE from central Canada
into the Mid Atlantic states.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon, with mixing depth up to
700-750 hpa. Analysis of available winds aloft shows the
potential for 45 to 50 mph gusts locally.

After earlier collaboration with surrounding offices, decided
to hold off on issuance of a wind advisory as best potential
appears to be across New England, aided by passing PVA.
Trends/obs though will need to be watched and gusts to 40 to 45
mph are likely.

Did address winds, blowing snow and black ice with Special
Weather Statement earlier.

Shortwave energy and NW flow extending from lake Superior
should provide enough moisture for sct-bkn stratocu, with
scattered flurries working into the region this afternoon.
Latest high resolution models do show this potential.

High temperatures likely only reach the mid to upper 20s (15-20
degrees below seasonable, with windchills only into the single
digits to lower teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Polar troughing will continue to reside over the NE U.S the rest
of the weekend...lifting north on Monday. At the
surface...sprawling arctic high pressure will continue to build
SE from central Canada towards the region tonight into Sunday. A
northern stream shortwave moves through on Sunday afternoon
with sct stratocu...but reduced instability over the Great
Lakes should limit threat for flurries. Sunny and dry on Monday
under moderating arctic high and shortwave ridging.

Main story will continue to be the unseasonable cold...with temps
potentially struggling to get to the freezing mark both Sunday and
Monday (15-20 degrees below seasonable). Windchills likely run in
the single digits coastal plain...and 0 to 5 below zero across
interior late tonight/Sun morning on gusty NW winds. Gusty NW winds
of 25 to 35 mph likely on Sunday...subsiding Sunday Night into
Monday as high pressure work over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models continue to strongly signal potential for a strong coastal
storm during the Monday Night into Tue Night period in response to
interaction between northern stream...Pac...and sub-tropical
energies across the Central and Southern US. Strength/location
differences still exists on how these energies phase...but they are
converging on the idea of PAC energy diving into the southern U.S
and phasing with subtropical energy Mon Night...with this phased
energy then tracking up the coast around digging northern stream
energy/developing Great Lakes upper low on Tuesday...and then
eventually phasing with the northern stream energy as a closed low
over NE US Tue Night/Wed. Note there are also a small subset of
solutions that leave PAC and subtropical energies
unphased...which would result in a split scenario of offshore
low and inside runner. In any case...expecting convergence on
solutions in the next 24-36 hrs as these discrete energies get
sampled by RAOB networks...but may still take till within 24 hrs
models to strongly converge based on the inherent model
difficulty in handling such as complex handing northern and
southern stream phasing.

This above spread manifests in more-so track and to a lesser extent
intensity/timing differences of resultant southern low tracking up
the coast Mon Night into Tue Night. Operational track spread exists
in how close to the coast low pressure hugs which are all in play at
this point, but for consistency and middle road have stayed close to
previous forecast and EPS/GEFS ensemble means with a low
pressure track off the Mid Atlantic...se of LI...and near Cape
Cod.

Based on above...potential for a widespread significant snowfall (1
ft+) combined with strong winds continues. With ECMWF/GFS
showing potential for 60kt+ at 950 HPA along the coastal
plain Tue/Tue eve...a threat for high wind gusts and blizzard
conditions exists.

Based on extent of southern stream phasing and resulting viable
model spread of low pressure tracks...potential for a period of
mixing or even a period of heavy rain continues along the coast.
Official forecast...heavily leaned towards EPS/GEFS ensemble
mean tracks...would limit any mixing to the south fork of LI.

Low pressure departs Tuesday Night with heavy precip ending...but
snow showers could lingers through Wednesday as the phased
and closed upper low moves through.

High pressure builds in thereafter.

Well below normal temperatures expected through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in over the weekend.

VFR. Gusty WNW winds this afternoon and early this evening,
likely favoring south of 310 magnetic. A few flurries or a
brief snow shower will be possible through 22z, however will
leave out of the tafs due to low confidence of timing and
placement and a rather small area in coverage. Winds continue to
gust into the evening and overnight, however gusts do diminish
overnight. Could lose the gusts for a few hours from 6z to
around daybreak Sunday morning, however, gusts re- develop after
sunrise.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday...VFR. NW winds south of 310 magnetic G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT.
.MONDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Snow with IFR or lower
conditions, possibly transitioning to mixed precip or rain
especially east/closer to the coast. Strong E-NE winds with
potential for G40KT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Precipitation changing back to all snow before
tapering to scattered snow showers, with chance of IFR
conditions. Winds backing NW G30KT.
.WEDNESDAY...Mainly VFR. NW winds G30KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings on all area waters through 00Z (7pm Saturday) and the
eastern ocean waters til 06Z (1 am Sunday).

A strong NW flow on the back side of a rapidly deepening low
tracking across the Canadian Maritimes will continue today with
gusts between 35 and 40 kt on the area waters.

Wind gusts subside from gale force to SCA levels tonight, and then
below SCA Sunday night as Arctic high pressure slowly begins
building from the west Saturday night through Monday.

Quiet on Monday as high pressure moves across the waters. Then winds
and seas likely increase Monday night with the approach of a coastal
storm. Gales will be possible with this storm Monday Night into
Tuesday night, coming down below Gales Tuesday night. However, and
extended period of SCA winds is possible over the ocean waters
through Wednesday night.

Waves quickly build to above SCA criteria late Monday night and
continue to increase Tuesday, peaking out at 12 to 15 ft for the
ocean zones and 6 to 8 ft across the Sound. Waves come down
below SCA for the sound late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night, while the ocean will remain above 5 ft throughout the
long term.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong coastal storm will bring potential for 1 to 2 inches of
liquid equivalent precip...but much of that should be in the
form of now. No hydrologic problems are anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Significant spread exists in surge guidance for Monday Night
into Tuesday based on model spread in low pressure track.

Main concern is for the Tue late morning/early aft high tide
cycle coming off a full moon on Sunday. Generally 1 1/2 to 2 ft
of surge are needed for minor coastal flooding and around 3 ft
for moderate. Current ensemble means track low pressure
southeast of LI Tue/Tue night...keeping winds veered to the NE/N
and likely limit coastal impacts to minor. But based on model
spread...there is still potential for low pressure to track
closer to the coast...which would result in a stronger and
longer period of easterly flow...and pose a threat for moderate
coastal impacts.

The more likely scenario should become clearer over the next
24-36 hrs as models converge further on storm track.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low maximum temperatures for Saturday, March 11

Location.......Record Low Max/Year Set
Central Park..........28/1885
LaGuardia.............32/1998*
J F Kennedy...........32/1969*
Newark................30/1937
Bridgeport............33/1998*
Islip.................33/1998

Record low temperatures for Sunday, March 12

Location.......Record Low/Year Set
Central Park..........8/1888
LaGuardia.............15/1984
J F Kennedy...........12/1984
Newark................13/1934
Bridgeport............11/1984
Islip.................14/1984

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sunday, March 12

Location.......Record Low Max/Year Set
Central Park..........26/1900
LaGuardia.............28/1984
J F Kennedy...........29/1984
Newark................30/1984
Bridgeport............27/1984
Islip.................25/1984

Record low temperatures for Monday, March 13

Location.......Record Low/Year Set
Central Park..........6/1888
LaGuardia.............19/2014*
J F Kennedy...........19/2014
Newark................18/1948
Bridgeport............16/1998
Islip.................17/1998

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP/NV
AVIATION...BC/JE
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 4:33 AM EST, 11 hours 5 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
433 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-120945-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
433 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

The potential is increasing for a strong coastal storm producing
significant snowfall and strong winds Monday Night into Tuesday
Night. There is also a low threat for moderate coastal flooding at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>070-120945-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
433 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

The potential is increasing for a strong coastal storm producing a
significant snowfall and strong winds Monday Night into Tuesday Night

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-353-355-120945-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
433 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Potential is increasing for a strong coastal storm producing gale to
storm force winds Monday Night into Tuesday Night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-120945-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
433 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Potential is increasing for a strong coastal storm producing gale to
storm force winds Monday Night into Tuesday Night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 11, 3:24 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryOKX35 hr
Mar 11, 3:38 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchOKXOrange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester24 hr

Nearby

Blizzard Watches in New York, 2017Blizzard Watches in New Jersey, 2017Blizzard Watches in Connecticut, 2017Every blizzard watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.