Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Nashville, TN

Bedford County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
242 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Snow has mainly moved off to the east earlier in the evening
although a few radar echoes have popped up over the Plateau this
morning. Flurries look to be possible with lower ceilings over the
higher elevations, but as the upper low moves further to the east
skies will clear rapidly behind. Even though skies will be clear,
temperatures will only get into the low to mid 20s for most of the
mid state thanks to cold air lingering aloft and CAA at the
surface. With 850 mb temps in the -8C to -12C range through Sunday
afternoon, most of the area will not get above freezing until
Monday afternoon. Even though temperatures will be below freezing,
dry air and sunshine should help clear the roads a bit, but relief
with above freezing temps and even above average temperatures are
on the way next week.

Winds will stay up today with the tight surface pressure gradient
still in place behind the upper low, but will relax this afternoon
and allow winds to calm down a bit. With winds around 10-15 mph
this morning, and temperatures in the single digits/low teens,
wind chills will be around zero to slightly below zero. Recovery
will be slow in regards to wind chills this morning, but should be
well above zero by the afternoon when temperatures are warmer and
winds calm a bit.

Dry conditions will continue this weekend and on Monday with weak
upper ridging moving over the region. Chances for rain will move
in Monday night, however, and remain in the forecast for the rest
of the week. The best chances for rain still looks like Tuesday
night when the upper shortwave trough axis crosses the MS River.
The GFS and ECMWF were in better agreement on previous runs, but
the ECMWF is slightly faster with this wave on the latest run.
Precip timing still looks good, so kept in the likely mention of
pops Tuesday night. Looking at thunder potential for the week,
models dont have very much instability even with the warmer
temperatures, so left out mention for now. Should models get a
little more aggressive with WAA we might see enough instability to
see a few thunderstorms.

As temperatures rise next week thanks to WAA from the series of
shortwaves and broad southwesterly flow aloft, the mid state will
see highs mainly in the 50s and 60s Tuesday onward. Current models
have temperatures even close to 70 by next Thursday ahead of
another shortwave and remaining south of a more stationary
boundary that looks to setup over the OH River valley. Before
that, the WAA on Tuesday occurs due to the very strong southerly
flow near the surface in addition to the previously mentioned SW
flow aloft. During the day Tuesday just before the upper trough
axis crosses the mid state, the surface pressure gradient really
tightens up between southern IL and northern GA. Current forecast
has some areas seeing sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts just
over 30 mph during the afternoon hours Tuesday. Winds look to calm
down later in the evening and overnight hours.

Chances for rain come to an end by late Friday, so for now have
Saturday dry. However, the GFS and ECMWF have very different
solutions by the late week. At the very least, models agree that
temperatures will remain above normal, so winter precip chances
are very low through the mid part of January with current model
runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA and CKV will continue with VFR through the next 24 hours. Dry
high pressure will move into TN as a major southeast storm pulls
off the east coast. A cloud deck around 10kft will give way to
clear skies around 13Z. North winds will continue around 11kt with
a few gusts around 16kt.

The back edge of clouds with the southeast storm system will
affect CSV with MVFR cigs and a few snow flurries at times
overnight. CSV will have clearing skies by 15Z with building high
pressure. Winds will remain north around 10kt with a few higher
gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      24  12  31  22  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    21  11  30  21  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
Crossville     19   7  27  17  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Columbia       22  11  31  20  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   23  11  31  20  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waverly        21  11  30  21  43 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1034 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1034 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ROADWAYS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DUE TO ICE FORMATION AND
RESIDUAL SNOWFALL. BLACK ICE FORMATION WILL OCCUR IN SPOTS.
EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON AREA ROADWAYS TONIGHT.
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AROUND ZERO DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR COLD WINTER WEATHER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION
WHILE TRAVELING ON AREA ROADWAYS AND DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR COLD
WINTER WEATHER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE APPRECIATED.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1027 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071500-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...
LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
1027 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017

...Some Scattered Flurries Possible Through Overnight Hours...
...Hazardous Travel Conditions will persist through at least the
mid morning hours across Middle Tennessee...

Some scattered flurries will be possible across Middle Tennessee,
eventually with this potential ending from west to east as the
late night hours progress. Thus, no additional snowfall
accumulations are expected across Middle Tennessee for the
remainder of tonight.

Standing water on main area roadways have refrozen in spots, with
secondary roadways still very hazardous. Although main roadways
may continue to dry due to northerly winds, icy spots on these
main roadways, along with freezing spots on bridges and overpasses
will continue to occur. Dangerous black ice is likely to form at
these locations. Temperatures are expected to remain well below
freezing, with lows tonight ranging from the upper single digits
to lower teens. In most areas, wind chills will be close to zero
late tonight.

Sunshine will become more predominant Saturday morning, allowing
improvement in travel conditions. However, high temperatures will
only be in the lower 20s on Saturday with wind chill readings in
the single digits through the morning hours.

If you are traveling tonight through the mid morning hours on
Saturday, please exercise caution. You may need to drive slowly
at times, and leave in plenty of time to get to your designation.
Be sure that you have a winter weather safety kit in your vehicle,
including a blanket. If going outdoors, please dress appropriately
for cold winter weather.

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