Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
148 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

All of the action will be in the first few hours of this forecast
period, then a quiet wx pattern will take over with a couple of
dry cold fronts for Thanksgiving week.

At mid afternoon, warm and windy conditions prevailed with
temperatures in the 60s and wind gusts around 30 mph. The strong
winds may become even stronger over the next few hours as an
accelerating cold front sweeps across the area. As of 1 PM CST, a
band of thunderstorms, some severe, was focused along the front
as it approached the Mississippi River. Based on HRRR and
extrapolation, the thunderstorms should reach our western
counties around 4 PM and BNA around 5 PM. The band of storms
should exit our eastern counties around 7 PM. Damaging winds will
be the main concern as these storms tap into wind energy just off
the surface. Even away from storms, this dynamic front is likely
to cause some wind damage including downing of limbs and small
trees and scattered power outages. Given the impressive wind
shear, a couple of brief tornadoes may spin up along the line of
storms.

AFter 7 PM CST, the showers and storms will taper off quickly, but
very windy conditions will last through the evening. A Wind
Advisory will remain in place until midnight. Later tonight,
temps will fall into the 30s, but northwest breezes will make it
feel colder.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies, although clouds may linger
early for the Upper Cumberland. Highs will be chilly, only in the
40s with a northwest breeze 10-20 mph.

Sunday night will be quite cold as high pressure settles over the
area. Lows will be in the 20s. Monday will be sunny with temps
recovering to the 50s.

High pressure will stay in control Monday night through Tuesday
with near normal temps.

A dry cold front will come in Tuesday night into Wednesday with
another shot of chilly air. Temps will be on the cool side
through Thanksgiving Day. Then, temps will recover a bit going
into the weekend. It looks like yet another cold front will dive
into the area next weekend with a shot of even colder air to wrap
up November.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR cigs and gusty south to southwest winds up to 35 knots will
affect airports this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Fropa
expected from 20Z-02Z with TSRA and MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds
will switch to northwest after fropa with continued MVFR cigs
until late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      36  47  27  56  35 /  50   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    34  45  26  54  33 /  30   0   0   0   0
Crossville     33  40  24  52  31 /  90  10   0   0   0
Columbia       35  48  25  56  33 /  40   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   35  48  26  56  34 /  50   0   0   0   0
Waverly        34  45  26  54  32 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
420 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191100-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
420 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
expected through this evening. Thus a Wind Advisory is in effect
for all of Middle Tennessee through midnight tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across northwestern
portions of Middle Tennessee north of Interstate 40 and west of
Interstate 65 approaching the Land Between the Lakes Region.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the
remainder of Middle Tennessee. The potential of severe thunderstorms
will be mainly this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front
moves across the mid state region. Damaging winds will be the
main threat. However, it can not totally be ruled out that a
severe thunderstorm or two will produce an isolated tornado or
two also.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening across
Middle Tennessee.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees of Power Lines Down

31

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