Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

At mid afternoon, showers and thunderstorms covered the
Cumberland Plateau, with a few stragglers to the west. The
shortwave disturbance initiating this activity will move off to
the east early this evening, and with loss of heating, the
residual showers and storms should all come to an end by 10 PM.
We have not had any severe storms, but there have been reports of
heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small hail. Later
tonight, skies will clear, but the very muggy air will remain. So,
we expect fog development, with some dense fog, especially east
of I-65 where the heaviest rainfall has occurred.

For the remainder of the forecast, through next Tuesday, we will
be locked into a pattern of unusually warm temperatures, high
humidity, and only low sporadic chances for rain.

Beginning tomorrow, an upper level ridge will form, with an axis
from TX to the Great Lakes. As the ridge builds, it will limit
chances for isolated showers or storms to the southeast half of
our area. No major features are evident to initiate convection, so
whatever develops should occur in the heat of the afternoon.
Temperatures will climb 5-10 degrees above normal, reaching the
mid 80s to near 90, except lower 80s Plateau.

Beyond tomorrow, the ridge will gradually shift to become more
centered over the Great Lakes as it continues to control our wx.
The air mass across Mid TN will be unchanged, so we will continue
to have highs in the mid 80s to near 90, except lower 80s Plateau.
Lows will be in the 60s each night with patchy fog. A few pockets
of deeper moisture and weak disturbances may circulate around the
upper ridge. This could bring small pops at times, mainly over
our southern counties. Ultimately, this will not amount to much,
with 7 day average qpf values under one tenth of an inch.

Good news for Mid TN is that we will not be impacted by
Hurricanes Jose or Maria. Forecasts show these beasts staying
well to our east. Another bit of potentially good news is possible
weakening of the upper ridge and a shot of cooler air late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An organized band of showers and storms over Middle TN at 1730Z
was moving east and should impact KCSV between 18Z and 22Z as a
weak short wave moves east across the region. Elsewhere, expect
isolated to scattered storms through late afternoon with
convection diminishing rapidly by sunset. Should be some patchy
fog late tonight into early Wednesday morning before ending around
13Z or 14Z. Rain chances will be lower on Wednesday compared to
today as mid level ridging and slight drying develop across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  89  69  90  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
Clarksville    66  89  68  89  67 /  10  10   0  10  10
Crossville     62  82  63  83  63 /  30  20  10  20  10
Columbia       66  88  67  89  66 /  20  20  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   65  87  66  88  66 /  20  20  10  20  10
Waverly        67  88  67  89  68 /  20  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........49

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
256 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-202000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
256 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A couple of strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible
late this afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and hail may
occur, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

Later tonight, areas of fog will form. Some dense fog is possible,
especially east of I-65 and across the Cumberland Plateau.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1204 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

TNZ028-030-191745-
Wilson TN-Smith TN-
1204 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMITH AND SOUTHEASTERN WILSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1203 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms near Gordonsville, or 8 miles south of Carthage,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph and small pea-sized hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Carthage, Watertown, Gordonsville, Hickman, South Carthage,
Alexandria, Tuckers Crossroads and Gladeville.

LAT...LON 3634 8583 3629 8585 3625 8583 3624 8578
      3621 8578 3621 8581 3619 8580 3615 8582
      3610 8594 3611 8596 3608 8601 3609 8601
      3608 8603 3609 8606 3607 8606 3605 8605
      3598 8619 3611 8643 3640 8588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 264DEG 46KT 3614 8600

LV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
214 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

TNZ027-192000-
Davidson TN-
214 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking a
strong thunderstorm near the north part of Nashville, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea to half inch diameter hail are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nashville, Madison, Goodlettsville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle
Meade, Lakewood, Old Hickory, Hermitage, Berry Hill, Bells Bend and
Whites Creek.

LAT...LON 3621 8698 3635 8679 3622 8659 3612 8665
      3606 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 311DEG 10KT 3623 8684

LV

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
359 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

TNZ027-059-062-192145-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-
359 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
complex near Franklin, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea sized hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Spring Hill, Nolensville,
Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Thompson's Station, Thompsons Station,
Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Triune and Leipers Fork.

LAT...LON 3603 8713 3607 8681 3598 8651 3581 8655
      3573 8675 3582 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 316DEG 14KT 3589 8677

LV