Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another hot and humid afternoon is underway across Middle Tennessee.
Throughout the morning and early afternoon hours, a couple of
outflow boundaries and weak shortwaves have traversed the mid-state
providing just enough lift to spark showers and a few thunderstorms.
Nothing has been particularly strong, but the combination of rain
and additional cloud cover has been enough to keep us from reaching
into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.  Heat Index values have
still reached triple digits in many places and with the heavier,
more widespread rains not expected until the evening hours, the Heat
Advisory is still warranted, so we will allow to to run its course
and expire at 7 pm this evening.

Regarding those upcoming evening storms, another stronger impulse is
still expected to drop southward and spark more widespread activity
after 6 pm this evening.  There will still be plenty of instability
to fuel convection, however, with the lack of shear, no organization
is expected. This means clusters of thunderstorms will develop
and push slowly southward across the area. The slow movement will
provide moderate to heavy rainfall and an outside shot at some
decent gusty winds. The bulk of the convection should begin to
wane by 10 or 11 pm as we lose the heating of the day.

Monday through Wednesday should be relatively quiet.  Some afternoon
storms are possible Monday afternoon closer to the Alabama state
line as this will be where the best instability will reside.  A
stray thunderstorm won't be out of the question Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons.  Of greater importance to everyone will be the
afternoon highs, which are expected to fall back towards normal
values.  This means low 90s and with dew points expected to remain
in the low 70s, it will still be hot and humid, but we should remain
below Heat Advisory criteria.

By late Thursday afternoon, under an admittedly unpredictable
northwesterly flow, models are depicting the approaching of a mid-
level disturbance that will bring showers and thunderstorms into the
region.  This activity is expected to linger into the overnight
hours Thursday and most likely into Friday.  Forecast soundings
during this time frame suggest a little more shear with which to
work, so some of these storms could become strong, especially
Friday afternoon as the bulk of the energy approaches Middle
Tennessee. Due to the northwesterly flow (and some model to model
inconsistencies in timing), I'll refrain from adding in any
strong wording to the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, however,
it may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

If there's good news in today's forecast package, it's that models
are progging cooler temperatures next weekend. While the Euro
holds onto rain into Saturday, Friday through Sunday's high
temperatures look below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Upper level impulse will approach from the northwest by late this
afternoon. pva enhancement over the middle TN area will lead to an
increase in shower and tstm activity by 00z. Will include vcts
and prob 30's to cover the convection. Activity not quite expected
to be widespread enough to warrant tempo. Rainfall chances will
diminish after 06z with fog vsbys dropping to as low as 3-5sm
late. Look for partial haze during the 12z-18z timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  91  74  91  73 /  50  20  10  10  10
Clarksville    73  89  72  89  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
Crossville     69  84  69  84  67 /  60  20  10  20  10
Columbia       73  89  73  89  71 /  50  30  20  20  10
Lawrenceburg   73  88  72  89  71 /  50  40  20  20  20
Waverly        73  89  72  90  72 /  50  20  10  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
523 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-241030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
523 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot weather will continue today...and a Heat Advisory remains in
effect for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. Maximum afternoon
heat index values will range from 100 to 106 degrees. In addition,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late today and
tonight, especially in areas north of Interstate 40 and east of
Interstate 65. A few of those storms could become strong to
severe, with damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue on Monday, as a weak cold
front sags slowly into the Mid State. Most storms are expected to
be over southern and eastern sections, and few storms along the
northern Cumberland Plateau could become strong to severe, with
damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
537 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

TNZ024-025-057-232315-
Hickman TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-
537 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DICKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND NORTHERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Hurricane Mills, or 13 miles southeast of Waverly,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Centerville, Lyles, Bon Aqua, Nunnelly, Pinewood and Bucksnort.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8774 3606 8742 3590 8725 3574 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 317DEG 7KT 3596 8760

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
559 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

TNZ026-027-059-232345-
Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
559 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...NORTH
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bellevue, or 12 miles northwest of Franklin, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Brentwood, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Kingston
Springs, Pegram, Bellevue and Natchez Trace At Highway 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8713 3619 8698 3606 8674 3589 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 312DEG 11KT 3607 8698

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
613 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

TNZ028>030-064-240000-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
613 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMITH...NORTHWESTERN DE KALB...
NORTHEASTERN WILSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL TROUSDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tuckers Crossroads, or 9 miles southwest of Carthage, moving east at
15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Carthage, Watertown, Gordonsville, Hickman, South Carthage,
Alexandria, Dowelltown, Liberty and Tuckers Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 8581 3614 8581 3596 8602 3619 8630
      3638 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 291DEG 11KT 3619 8610

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

TNZ028-240000-
Wilson TN-
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

At 633 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lebanon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Cedars Of Lebanon State Park and Gladeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8603 3597 8625 3611 8644 3619 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 297DEG 10KT 3614 8630

Shamburger

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W SOUTH CARTHAGE      36.24N  86.00W
07/23/2017                   SMITH              TN   TWITTER

            TSPOTTER REPORT OF TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT IN POPES
            HILL AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700729

SHAMBURGER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>