Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
255 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A wet forecast is in store for the weekend. Models are in very
good agreement that a cold front will move through by Sunday.
There won't be too much of a temperature change tomorrow...but by
Sunday the area can expect highs in the lower 60s. SPC has placed
just about the whole forecast area in the slight risk for
tomorrow. The main threat will be strong winds and hail with the
potential for a few organized supercells. In addition the concern
for flash flooding will increase. With all of the rain
received this week and the potential for another inch to two
inches...the ground might reach the saturation point. At this
time it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where to place a watch so
will hold off and see what areas get the most rain today.

The start of the work week will be dry. Models still don/t have a
great handle so not exactly sure the best chance for rain. Right
now it looks like it could be Thursday night to Friday. A trof
over the Rockies on Thursday begins to depend as it moves east.
The Euro is faster and wraps up a low over the Upper Ohio Valley
by Friday morning while the GFS depends the trof and keeps it
over the middle of the United States. These discrepancies make it
difficult to figure out rain changes for the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Surface front bisects Middle Tennessee from NE to SW
as we head into the afternoon. Already, scattered showers and a
few storms have developed mainly along and south of the boundary.
Look for the front to slowly penetrate farther to the south during
the next several hours, with deeper moisture advecting into
Middle Tennessee later this afternoon and tonight. This will
contribute to more widespread activity across the entire mid
state. Expect ceilings to deteriorate to MVFR as showers become
more widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  70  51  62  49 /  70  80  60  40  20
Clarksville    54  63  47  61  46 /  90  90  50  40  10
Crossville     59  70  50  60  47 /  70  80  80  50  50
Columbia       61  74  50  61  49 /  70  80  50  40  20
Lawrenceburg   61  75  50  61  49 /  60  80  60  40  20
Waverly        57  65  48  61  48 /  90  80  50  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
500 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
500 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across Middle Tennessee. A few storms could contain
damaging winds or hail. However, the main threat will be heavy
rainfall and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

More strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday
across Middle Tennessee, especially during the afternoon, and a
few storms could contain damaging winds and hail. However, the
main threat will again be heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary today and Saturday.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

TNZ059>061-212000-
Williamson TN-Maury TN-Marshall TN-
241 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...
NORTHEASTERN MAURY AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

At 241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Columbia, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Spring Hill, Thompson's Station, Chapel Hill, Thompsons
Station and I-65 East Of Columbia.

LAT...LON 3552 8702 3568 8712 3584 8683 3560 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 244DEG 20KT 3564 8699

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
327 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

TNZ059>061-075-212045-
Williamson TN-Bedford TN-Maury TN-Marshall TN-
327 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...EAST
CENTRAL MAURY...SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Lewisburg, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Chapel Hill, Rover, I-65 East Of Columbia and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8695 3583 8677 3576 8668 3575 8668
      3575 8670 3572 8670 3572 8669 3570 8667
      3569 8664 3570 8663 3570 8659 3565 8652
      3547 8678
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 221DEG 18KT 3560 8681

Rose

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
426 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BELL BUCKLE         35.59N  86.37W
04/21/2017                   BEDFORD            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AT HIGHWAY 82 AND COOP ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700441

JACKSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E SHELBYVILLE           35.49N  86.45W
04/21/2017                   BEDFORD            TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            IMAGES OF ROOF DAMAGE TO A MOTEL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700443

JACKSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
501 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

TNZ063-077-078-212230-
Cannon TN-Coffee TN-Warren TN-
501 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEE...WARREN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of McMinnville, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Morrison, Centertown and Summitville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8602 3571 8608 3583 8568 3582 8567
      3557 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 255DEG 30KT 3564 8596

13